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 Statistical Learning


Harnessing the Power of Federated Learning in Federated Contextual Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Federated learning (FL) has demonstrated great potential in revolutionizing distributed machine learning, and tremendous efforts have been made to extend it beyond the original focus on supervised learning. Among many directions, federated contextual bandits (FCB), a pivotal integration of FL and sequential decision-making, has garnered significant attention in recent years. Despite substantial progress, existing FCB approaches have largely employed their tailored FL components, often deviating from the canonical FL framework. Consequently, even renowned algorithms like FedAvg remain under-utilized in FCB, let alone other FL advancements. Motivated by this disconnection, this work takes one step towards building a tighter relationship between the canonical FL study and the investigations on FCB. In particular, a novel FCB design, termed FedIGW, is proposed to leverage a regression-based CB algorithm, i.e., inverse gap weighting. Compared with existing FCB approaches, the proposed FedIGW design can better harness the entire spectrum of FL innovations, which is concretely reflected as (1) flexible incorporation of (both existing and forthcoming) FL protocols; (2) modularized plug-in of FL analyses in performance guarantees; (3) seamless integration of FL appendages (such as personalization, robustness, and privacy). We substantiate these claims through rigorous theoretical analyses and empirical evaluations.


Generating gradients in the energy landscape using rectified linear type cost functions for efficiently solving 0/1 matrix factorization in Simulated Annealing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The 0/1 matrix factorization defines matrix products using logical AND and OR as product-sum operators, revealing the factors influencing various decision processes. Instances and their characteristics are arranged in rows and columns. Formulating matrix factorization as an energy minimization problem and exploring it with Simulated Annealing (SA) theoretically enables finding a minimum solution in sufficient time. However, searching for the optimal solution in practical time becomes problematic when the energy landscape has many plateaus with flat slopes. In this work, we propose a method to facilitate the solution process by applying a gradient to the energy landscape, using a rectified linear type cost function readily available in modern annealing machines. We also propose a method to quickly obtain a solution by updating the cost function's gradient during the search process. Numerical experiments were conducted, confirming the method's effectiveness with both noise-free artificial and real data.


Anticipated Network Surveillance -- An extrapolated study to predict cyber-attacks using Machine Learning and Data Analytics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning and data mining techniques are utiized for enhancement of the security of any network. Researchers used machine learning for pattern detection, anomaly detection, dynamic policy setting, etc. The methods allow the program to learn from data and make decisions without human intervention, consuming a huge training period and computation power. This paper discusses a novel technique to predict an upcoming attack in a network based on several data parameters. The dataset is continuous in real-time implementation. The proposed model comprises dataset pre-processing, and training, followed by the testing phase. Based on the results of the testing phase, the best model is selected using which, event class which may lead to an attack is extracted. The event statistics are used for attack


Learning Time-aware Graph Structures for Spatially Correlated Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spatio-temporal forecasting of future values of spatially correlated time series is important across many cyber-physical systems (CPS). Recent studies offer evidence that the use of graph neural networks to capture latent correlations between time series holds a potential for enhanced forecasting. However, most existing methods rely on pre-defined or self-learning graphs, which are either static or unintentionally dynamic, and thus cannot model the time-varying correlations that exhibit trends and periodicities caused by the regularity of the underlying processes in CPS. To tackle such limitation, we propose Time-aware Graph Structure Learning (TagSL), which extracts time-aware correlations among time series by measuring the interaction of node and time representations in high-dimensional spaces. Notably, we introduce time discrepancy learning that utilizes contrastive learning with distance-based regularization terms to constrain learned spatial correlations to a trend sequence. Additionally, we propose a periodic discriminant function to enable the capture of periodic changes from the state of nodes. Next, we present a Graph Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Unit (GCGRU) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while learning time-aware and node-specific patterns. Finally, we introduce a unified framework named Time-aware Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (TGCRN), combining TagSL, and GCGRU in an encoder-decoder architecture for multi-step spatio-temporal forecasting. We report on experiments with TGCRN and popular existing approaches on five real-world datasets, thus providing evidence that TGCRN is capable of advancing the state-of-the-art. We also cover a detailed ablation study and visualization analysis, offering detailed insight into the effectiveness of time-aware structure learning.


Frame-level emotional state alignment method for speech emotion recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Speech emotion recognition (SER) systems aim to recognize human emotional state during human-computer interaction. Most existing SER systems are trained based on utterance-level labels. However, not all frames in an audio have affective states consistent with utterance-level label, which makes it difficult for the model to distinguish the true emotion of the audio and perform poorly. To address this problem, we propose a frame-level emotional state alignment method for SER. First, we fine-tune HuBERT model to obtain a SER system with task-adaptive pretraining (TAPT) method, and extract embeddings from its transformer layers to form frame-level pseudo-emotion labels with clustering. Then, the pseudo labels are used to pretrain HuBERT. Hence, the each frame output of HuBERT has corresponding emotional information. Finally, we fine-tune the above pretrained HuBERT for SER by adding an attention layer on the top of it, which can focus only on those frames that are emotionally more consistent with utterance-level label. The experimental results performed on IEMOCAP indicate that our proposed method performs better than state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods.


Photovoltaic power forecasting using quantum machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting solar panel power output is crucial for advancing the energy transition but is complicated by the variable and non-linear nature of solar energy. This is influenced by numerous meteorological factors, geographical positioning, and photovoltaic cell properties, posing significant challenges to forecasting accuracy and grid stability. Our study introduces a suite of solutions centered around hybrid quantum neural networks designed to tackle these complexities. The first proposed model, the Hybrid Quantum Long Short-Term Memory, surpasses all tested models by over 40% lower mean absolute and mean squared errors. The second proposed model, Hybrid Quantum Sequence-to-Sequence neural network, once trained, predicts photovoltaic power with 16% lower mean absolute error for arbitrary time intervals without the need for prior meteorological data, highlighting its versatility. Moreover, our hybrid models perform better even when trained on limited datasets, underlining their potential utility in data-scarce scenarios. These findings represent a stride towards resolving time series prediction challenges in energy power forecasting through hybrid quantum models, showcasing the transformative potential of quantum machine learning in catalyzing the renewable energy transition.


Alternate Training of Shared and Task-Specific Parameters for Multi-Task Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces novel alternate training procedures for hard-parameter sharing Multi-Task Neural Networks (MTNNs). Traditional MTNN training faces challenges in managing conflicting loss gradients, often yielding sub-optimal performance. The proposed alternate training method updates shared and task-specific weights alternately, exploiting the multi-head architecture of the model. This approach reduces computational costs, enhances training regularization, and improves generalization. Convergence properties similar to those of the classical stochastic gradient method are established. Empirical experiments demonstrate delayed overfitting, improved prediction, and reduced computational demands. In summary, our alternate training procedures offer a promising advancement for the training of hard-parameter sharing MTNNs.


Observable Propagation: A Data-Efficient Approach to Uncover Feature Vectors in Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key goal of current mechanistic interpretability research in NLP is to find linear features (also called "feature vectors") for transformers: directions in activation space corresponding to concepts that are used by a given model in its computation. Present state-of-the-art methods for finding linear features require large amounts of labelled data -- both laborious to acquire and computationally expensive to utilize. In this work, we introduce a novel method, called "observable propagation" (in short: ObsProp), for finding linear features used by transformer language models in computing a given task -- using almost no data. Our paradigm centers on the concept of observables, linear functionals corresponding to given tasks. We then introduce a mathematical theory for the analysis of feature vectors: we provide theoretical motivation for why LayerNorm nonlinearities do not affect the direction of feature vectors; we also introduce a similarity metric between feature vectors called the coupling coefficient which estimates the degree to which one feature's output correlates with another's. We use ObsProp to perform extensive qualitative investigations into several tasks, including gendered occupational bias, political party prediction, and programming language detection. Our results suggest that ObsProp surpasses traditional approaches for finding feature vectors in the low-data regime, and that ObsProp can be used to better understand the mechanisms responsible for bias in large language models. Code for experiments can be found at github.com/jacobdunefsky/ObservablePropagation.


Transformers Implement Functional Gradient Descent to Learn Non-Linear Functions In Context

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many neural network architectures have been shown to be Turing Complete, and can thus implement arbitrary algorithms. However, Transformers are unique in that they can implement gradient-based learning algorithms \emph{under simple parameter configurations}. A line of recent work shows that linear Transformers naturally learn to implement gradient descent (GD) when trained on a linear regression in-context learning task. But the linearity assumption (either in the Transformer architecture or in the learning task) is far from realistic settings where non-linear activations crucially enable Transformers to learn complicated non-linear functions. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that non-linear Transformers can, and \emph{in fact do}, learn to implement learning algorithms to learn non-linear functions in context. Our results apply to a broad class of combinations of non-linear architectures, and non-linear in-context learning tasks. Interestingly, we show that the optimal choice of non-linear activation depends in a natural way on the non-linearity of the learning task.


Differentiable modeling to unify machine learning and physical models and advance Geosciences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Process-Based Modeling (PBM) and Machine Learning (ML) are often perceived as distinct paradigms in the geosciences. Here we present differentiable geoscientific modeling as a powerful pathway toward dissolving the perceived barrier between them and ushering in a paradigm shift. For decades, PBM offered benefits in interpretability and physical consistency but struggled to efficiently leverage large datasets. ML methods, especially deep networks, presented strong predictive skills yet lacked the ability to answer specific scientific questions. While various methods have been proposed for ML-physics integration, an important underlying theme -- differentiable modeling -- is not sufficiently recognized. Here we outline the concepts, applicability, and significance of differentiable geoscientific modeling (DG). "Differentiable" refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables, critically enabling the learning of high-dimensional unknown relationships. DG refers to a range of methods connecting varying amounts of prior knowledge to neural networks and training them together, capturing a different scope than physics-guided machine learning and emphasizing first principles. Preliminary evidence suggests DG offers better interpretability and causality than ML, improved generalizability and extrapolation capability, and strong potential for knowledge discovery, while approaching the performance of purely data-driven ML. DG models require less training data while scaling favorably in performance and efficiency with increasing amounts of data. With DG, geoscientists may be better able to frame and investigate questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized linkages.