Statistical Learning
Robust CNN-based Respiration Rate Estimation for Smartwatch PPG and IMU
Kazemi, Kianoosh, Azimi, Iman, Liljeberg, Pasi, Rahmani, Amir M.
Respiratory rate (RR) serves as an indicator of various medical conditions, such as cardiovascular diseases and sleep disorders. These RR estimation methods were mostly designed for finger-based PPG collected from subjects in stationary situations (e.g., in hospitals). In contrast to finger-based PPG signals, wrist-based PPG are more susceptible to noise, particularly in their low frequency range, which includes respiratory information. Therefore, the existing methods struggle to accurately extract RR when PPG data are collected from wrist area under free-living conditions. The increasing popularity of smartwatches, equipped with various sensors including PPG, has prompted the need for a robust RR estimation method. In this paper, we propose a convolutional neural network-based approach to extract RR from PPG, accelerometer, and gyroscope signals captured via smartwatches. Our method, including a dilated residual inception module and 1D convolutions, extract the temporal information from the signals, enabling RR estimation. Our method is trained and tested using data collected from 36 subjects under free-living conditions for one day using Samsung Gear Sport watches. For evaluation, we compare the proposed method with four state-of-the-art RR estimation methods. The RR estimates are compared with RR references obtained from a chest-band device. The results show that our method outperforms the existing methods with the Mean-Absolute-Error and Root-Mean-Square-Error of 1.85 and 2.34, while the best results obtained by the other methods are 2.41 and 3.29, respectively. Moreover, compared to the other methods, the absolute error distribution of our method was narrow (with the lowest median), indicating a higher level of agreement between the estimated and reference RR values.
Arrival Time Prediction for Autonomous Shuttle Services in the Real World: Evidence from Five Cities
Schmidt, Carolin, Tygesen, Mathias, Rodrigues, Filipe
Urban mobility is on the cusp of transformation with the emergence of shared, connected, and cooperative automated vehicles. Yet, for them to be accepted by customers, trust in their punctuality is vital. Many pilot initiatives operate without a fixed schedule, thus enhancing the importance of reliable arrival time (AT) predictions. This study presents an AT prediction system for autonomous shuttles, utilizing separate models for dwell and running time predictions, validated on real-world data from five cities. Alongside established methods such as XGBoost, we explore the benefits of integrating spatial data using graph neural networks (GNN). To accurately handle the case of a shuttle bypassing a stop, we propose a hierarchical model combining a random forest classifier and a GNN. The results for the final AT prediction are promising, showing low errors even when predicting several stops ahead. Yet, no single model emerges as universally superior, and we provide insights into the characteristics of pilot sites that influence the model selection process. Finally, we identify dwell time prediction as the key determinant in overall AT prediction accuracy when autonomous shuttles are deployed in low-traffic areas or under regulatory speed limits. This research provides insights into the current state of autonomous public transport prediction models and paves the way for more data-informed decision-making as the field advances.
Strategic Client Selection to Address Non-IIDness in HAPS-enabled FL Networks
Farajzadeh, Amin, Yadav, Animesh, Yanikomeroglu, Halim
The deployment of federated learning (FL) within vertical heterogeneous networks, such as those enabled by high-altitude platform station (HAPS), offers the opportunity to engage a wide array of clients, each endowed with distinct communication and computational capabilities. This diversity not only enhances the training accuracy of FL models but also hastens their convergence. Yet, applying FL in these expansive networks presents notable challenges, particularly the significant non-IIDness in client data distributions. Such data heterogeneity often results in slower convergence rates and reduced effectiveness in model training performance. Our study introduces a client selection strategy tailored to address this issue, leveraging user network traffic behaviour. This strategy involves the prediction and classification of clients based on their network usage patterns while prioritizing user privacy. By strategically selecting clients whose data exhibit similar patterns for participation in FL training, our approach fosters a more uniform and representative data distribution across the network. Our simulations demonstrate that this targeted client selection methodology significantly reduces the training loss of FL models in HAPS networks, thereby effectively tackling a crucial challenge in implementing large-scale FL systems.
Decoupling Decision-Making in Fraud Prevention through Classifier Calibration for Business Logic Action
Luzio, Emanuele, Ponti, Moacir Antonelli, Arevalo, Christian Ramirez, Argerich, Luis
Machine learning models typically focus on specific targets like creating classifiers, often based on known population feature distributions in a business context. However, models calculating individual features adapt over time to improve precision, introducing the concept of decoupling: shifting from point evaluation to data distribution. We use calibration strategies as strategy for decoupling machine learning (ML) classifiers from score-based actions within business logic frameworks. To evaluate these strategies, we perform a comparative analysis using a real-world business scenario and multiple ML models. Our findings highlight the trade-offs and performance implications of the approach, offering valuable insights for practitioners seeking to optimize their decoupling efforts. In particular, the Isotonic and Beta calibration methods stand out for scenarios in which there is shift between training and testing data.
Do Vision and Language Encoders Represent the World Similarly?
Maniparambil, Mayug, Akshulakov, Raiymbek, Djilali, Yasser Abdelaziz Dahou, Narayan, Sanath, Seddik, Mohamed El Amine, Mangalam, Karttikeya, O'Connor, Noel E.
Aligned text-image encoders such as CLIP have become the de facto model for vision-language tasks. Furthermore, modality-specific encoders achieve impressive performances in their respective domains. This raises a central question: does an alignment exist between uni-modal vision and language encoders since they fundamentally represent the same physical world? Analyzing the latent spaces structure of vision and language models on image-caption benchmarks using the Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA), we find that the representation spaces of unaligned and aligned encoders are semantically similar. In the absence of statistical similarity in aligned encoders like CLIP, we show that a possible matching of unaligned encoders exists without any training. We frame this as a seeded graph-matching problem exploiting the semantic similarity between graphs and propose two methods - a Fast Quadratic Assignment Problem optimization, and a novel localized CKA metric-based matching/retrieval. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this on several downstream tasks including cross-lingual, cross-domain caption matching and image classification.
Federated Unlearning: A Survey on Methods, Design Guidelines, and Evaluation Metrics
Romandini, Nicolò, Mora, Alessio, Mazzocca, Carlo, Montanari, Rebecca, Bellavista, Paolo
Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative training of a Machine Learning (ML) model across multiple parties, facilitating the preservation of users' and institutions' privacy by keeping data stored locally. Instead of centralizing raw data, FL exchanges locally refined model parameters to build a global model incrementally. While FL is more compliant with emerging regulations such as the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), ensuring the right to be forgotten in this context - allowing FL participants to remove their data contributions from the learned model - remains unclear. In addition, it is recognized that malicious clients may inject backdoors into the global model through updates, e.g. to generate mispredictions on specially crafted data examples. Consequently, there is the need for mechanisms that can guarantee individuals the possibility to remove their data and erase malicious contributions even after aggregation, without compromising the already acquired "good" knowledge. This highlights the necessity for novel Federated Unlearning (FU) algorithms, which can efficiently remove specific clients' contributions without full model retraining. This survey provides background concepts, empirical evidence, and practical guidelines to design/implement efficient FU schemes. Our study includes a detailed analysis of the metrics for evaluating unlearning in FL and presents an in-depth literature review categorizing state-of-the-art FU contributions under a novel taxonomy. Finally, we outline the most relevant and still open technical challenges, by identifying the most promising research directions in the field.
MISS: Multiclass Interpretable Scoring Systems
Grzeszczyk, Michal K., Trzciński, Tomasz, Sitek, Arkadiusz
In this work, we present a novel, machine-learning approach for constructing Multiclass Interpretable Scoring Systems (MISS) - a fully data-driven methodology for generating single, sparse, and user-friendly scoring systems for multiclass classification problems. Scoring systems are commonly utilized as decision support models in healthcare, criminal justice, and other domains where interpretability of predictions and ease of use are crucial. Prior methods for data-driven scoring, such as SLIM (Supersparse Linear Integer Model), were limited to binary classification tasks and extensions to multiclass domains were primarily accomplished via one-versus-all-type techniques. The scores produced by our method can be easily transformed into class probabilities via the softmax function. We demonstrate techniques for dimensionality reduction and heuristics that enhance the training efficiency and decrease the optimality gap, a measure that can certify the optimality of the model. Our approach has been extensively evaluated on datasets from various domains, and the results indicate that it is competitive with other machine learning models in terms of classification performance metrics and provides well-calibrated class probabilities.
Learning to Configure Mathematical Programming Solvers by Mathematical Programming
Iommazzo, Gabriele, D'Ambrosio, Claudia, Frangioni, Antonio, Liberti, Leo
We discuss the issue of finding a good mathematical programming solver configuration for a particular instance of a given problem, and we propose a two-phase approach to solve it. In the first phase we learn the relationships between the instance, the configuration and the performance of the configured solver on the given instance. A specific difficulty of learning a good solver configuration is that parameter settings may not all be independent; this requires enforcing (hard) constraints, something that many widely used supervised learning methods cannot natively achieve. We tackle this issue in the second phase of our approach, where we use the learnt information to construct and solve an optimization problem having an explicit representation of the dependency/consistency constraints on the configuration parameter settings. We discuss computational results for two different instantiations of this approach on a unit commitment problem arising in the short-term planning of hydro valleys. We use logistic regression as the supervised learning methodology and consider CPLEX as the solver of interest.
Temporal Analysis of World Disaster Risk:A Machine Learning Approach to Cluster Dynamics
Mukendi, Christian Mulomba, Choi, Hyebong
he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the probability of improvement over a specific short period of time. Using the World Risk Index, we conduct a temporal analysis of global disaster risk dynamics from 2011 to 2021. This temporal exploration through the lens of the World Risk Index provides insights into the complex dynamics of disaster risk. We found that, despite sustained efforts, the global landscape remains divided into two main clusters: high susceptibility and moderate susceptibility, regardless of geographical location. This clustering was achieved using a semi-supervised approach through the Label Spreading algorithm, with 98% accuracy. We also found that the prediction of clusters achieved through supervised learning on the period considered in this study (one, three, and five years) showed that the Logistic regression (almost 99% at each stage) performed better than other classifiers. This suggests that the current policies and mechanisms are not effective in helping countries move from a hazardous position to a safer one during the period considered. In fact, statistical projections using a scenario analysis indicate that there is only a 1% chance of such a shift occurring within a five-year timeframe. This sobering reality highlights the need for a paradigm shift. Traditional long-term disaster management strategies are not effective for countries that are highly vulnerable. Our findings indicate the need for an innovative approach that is tailored to the specific vulnerabilities of these nations. As the threat of vulnerability persists, our research calls for the development of new strategies that can effectively address the ongoing challenges of disaster risk management
Information Flow Rate for Cross-Correlated Stochastic Processes
Causal inference seeks to identify cause-and-effect interactions in coupled systems. A recently proposed method by Liang detects causal relations by quantifying the direction and magnitude of information flow between time series. The theoretical formulation of information flow for stochastic dynamical systems provides a general expression and a data-driven statistic for the rate of entropy transfer between different system units. To advance understanding of information flow rate in terms of intuitive concepts and physically meaningful parameters, we investigate statistical properties of the data-driven information flow rate between coupled stochastic processes. We derive relations between the expectation of the information flow rate statistic and properties of the auto- and cross-correlation functions. Thus, we elucidate the dependence of the information flow rate on the analytical properties and characteristic times of the correlation functions. Our analysis provides insight into the influence of the sampling step, the strength of cross-correlations, and the temporal delay of correlations on information flow rate. We support the theoretical results with numerical simulations of correlated Gaussian processes.