Word meanings change over time, and word senses evolve, emerge or die out in the process. For ancient languages, where the corpora are often small and sparse, modelling such changes accurately proves challenging, and quantifying uncertainty in sense-change estimates consequently becomes important. GASC (Genre-Aware Semantic Change) and DiSC (Diachronic Sense Change) are existing generative models that have been used to analyse sense change for target words from an ancient Greek text corpus, using unsupervised learning without the help of any pre-training. These models represent the senses of a given target word such as "kosmos" (meaning decoration, order or world) as distributions over context words, and sense prevalence as a distribution over senses. The models are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to measure temporal changes in these representations. In this paper, we introduce EDiSC, an Embedded DiSC model, which combines word embeddings with DiSC to provide superior model performance. We show empirically that EDiSC offers improved predictive accuracy, ground-truth recovery and uncertainty quantification, as well as better sampling efficiency and scalability properties with MCMC methods. We also discuss the challenges of fitting these models.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is important to leverage the full potential of machine learning (ML). In practice, users are often interested in multi-objective (MO) problems, i.e., optimizing potentially conflicting objectives, like accuracy and energy consumption. To tackle this, the vast majority of MO-ML algorithms return a Pareto front of non-dominated machine learning models to the user. Optimizing the hyperparameters of such algorithms is non-trivial as evaluating a hyperparameter configuration entails evaluating the quality of the resulting Pareto front. In literature, there are known indicators that assess the quality of a Pareto front (e.g., hypervolume, R2) by quantifying different properties (e.g., volume, proximity to a reference point). However, choosing the indicator that leads to the desired Pareto front might be a hard task for a user. In this paper, we propose a human-centered interactive HPO approach tailored towards multi-objective ML leveraging preference learning to extract desiderata from users that guide the optimization. Instead of relying on the user guessing the most suitable indicator for their needs, our approach automatically learns an appropriate indicator. Concretely, we leverage pairwise comparisons of distinct Pareto fronts to learn such an appropriate quality indicator. Then, we optimize the hyperparameters of the underlying MO-ML algorithm towards this learned indicator using a state-of-the-art HPO approach. In an experimental study targeting the environmental impact of ML, we demonstrate that our approach leads to substantially better Pareto fronts compared to optimizing based on a wrong indicator pre-selected by the user, and performs comparable in the case of an advanced user knowing which indicator to pick.

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural network to approximate a distribution by evaluating it pointwise. Normalizing flows have been shown to improve the performance of MCMC and IS. On the other side, (randomized) quasi-Monte Carlo methods are used to perform numerical integration. They replace the random sampling of Monte Carlo by a sequence which cover the hypercube more uniformly, resulting in better convergence rates for the error that plain Monte Carlo. In this work, we combine these two methods by using quasi-Monte Carlo to sample the initial distribution that is transported by the flow. We demonstrate through numerical experiments that this combination can lead to an estimator with significantly lower variance than if the flow was sampled with a classic Monte Carlo.

Recent wildfires in Australia have led to considerable economic loss and property destruction, and there is increasing concern that climate change may exacerbate their intensity, duration, and frequency. Hazard quantification for extreme wildfires is an important component of wildfire management, as it facilitates efficient resource distribution, adverse effect mitigation, and recovery efforts. However, although extreme wildfires are typically the most impactful, both small and moderate fires can still be devastating to local communities and ecosystems. Therefore, it is imperative to develop robust statistical methods to reliably model the full distribution of wildfire spread. We do so for a novel dataset of Australian wildfires from 1999 to 2019, and analyse monthly spread over areas approximately corresponding to Statistical Areas Level 1 and 2 (SA1/SA2) regions. Given the complex nature of wildfire ignition and spread, we exploit recent advances in statistical deep learning and extreme value theory to construct a parametric regression model using graph convolutional neural networks and the extended generalized Pareto distribution, which allows us to model wildfire spread observed on an irregular spatial domain. We highlight the efficacy of our newly proposed model and perform a wildfire hazard assessment for Australia and population-dense communities, namely Tasmania, Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth.

Online changepoint detection aims to detect anomalies and changes in real-time in high-frequency data streams, sometimes with limited available computational resources. This is an important task that is rooted in many real-world applications, including and not limited to cybersecurity, medicine and astrophysics. While fast and efficient online algorithms have been recently introduced, these rely on parametric assumptions which are often violated in practical applications. Motivated by data streams from the telecommunications sector, we build a flexible nonparametric approach to detect a change in the distribution of a sequence. Our procedure, NP-FOCuS, builds a sequential likelihood ratio test for a change in a set of points of the empirical cumulative density function of our data. This is achieved by keeping track of the number of observations above or below those points. Thanks to functional pruning ideas, NP-FOCuS has a computational cost that is log-linear in the number of observations and is suitable for high-frequency data streams. In terms of detection power, NP-FOCuS is seen to outperform current nonparametric online changepoint techniques in a variety of settings. We demonstrate the utility of the procedure on both simulated and real data.

Backpropagation (BP) is widely used for calculating gradients in deep neural networks (DNNs). Applied often along with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or its variants, BP is considered as a de-facto choice in a variety of machine learning tasks including DNN training and adversarial attack/defense. Recently, a linear variant of BP named LinBP was introduced for generating more transferable adversarial examples for performing black-box attacks, by Guo et al. Although it has been shown empirically effective in black-box attacks, theoretical studies and convergence analyses of such a method is lacking. This paper serves as a complement and somewhat an extension to Guo et al.'s paper, by providing theoretical analyses on LinBP in neural-network-involved learning tasks, including adversarial attack and model training. We demonstrate that, somewhat surprisingly, LinBP can lead to faster convergence in these tasks in the same hyper-parameter settings, compared to BP. We confirm our theoretical results with extensive experiments.

The post-2020 global biodiversity framework needs ambitious, research-based targets. Estimating the accelerated extinction risk due to climate change is critical. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) measures the extinction risk of species. Automatic methods have been developed to provide information on the IUCN status of under-assessed taxa. However, these compensatory methods are based on current species characteristics, mainly geographical, which precludes their use in future projections. Here, we evaluate a novel method for classifying the IUCN status of species benefiting from the generalisation power of species distribution models based on deep learning. Our method matches state-of-the-art classification performance while relying on flexible SDM-based features that capture species' environmental preferences. Cross-validation yields average accuracies of 0.61 for status classification and 0.78 for binary classification. Climate change will reshape future species distributions. Under the species-environment equilibrium hypothesis, SDM projections approximate plausible future outcomes. Two extremes of species dispersal capacity are considered: unlimited or null. The projected species distributions are translated into features feeding our IUCN classification method. Finally, trends in threatened species are analysed over time and i) by continent and as a function of average ii) latitude or iii) altitude. The proportion of threatened species is increasing globally, with critical rates in Africa, Asia and South America. Furthermore, the proportion of threatened species is predicted to peak around the two Tropics, at the Equator, in the lowlands and at altitudes of 800-1,500 m.

We propose a new training algorithm, named DualFL (Dualized Federated Learning), for solving distributed optimization problems in federated learning. DualFL achieves communication acceleration for very general convex cost functions, thereby providing a solution to an open theoretical problem in federated learning concerning cost functions that may not be smooth nor strongly convex. We provide a detailed analysis for the local iteration complexity of DualFL to ensure the overall computational efficiency of DualFL. Furthermore, we introduce a completely new approach for the convergence analysis of federated learning based on a dual formulation. This new technique enables concise and elegant analysis, which contrasts the complex calculations used in existing literature on convergence of federated learning algorithms.

Energy load disaggregation can contribute to balancing power grids by enhancing the effectiveness of demand-side management and promoting electricity-saving behavior through increased consumer awareness. However, the field currently lacks a comprehensive overview. To address this gap, this paper con-ducts a scoping review of load disaggregation domains, data types, and methods, by assessing 72 full-text journal articles. The findings reveal that domestic electricity consumption is the most researched area, while others, such as industrial load disaggregation, are rarely discussed. The majority of research uses relatively low-frequency data, sampled between 1 and 60 seconds. A wide variety of methods are used, and artificial neural networks are the most common, followed by optimization strategies, Hidden Markov Models, and Graph Signal Processing approaches.

The published MLP-based DRL in finance has difficulties in learning the dynamics of the environment when the action scale increases. If the buying and selling increase to one thousand shares, the MLP agent will not be able to effectively adapt to the environment. To address this, we designed a CNN agent that concatenates the data from the last ninety days of the daily feature vector to create the CNN input matrix. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that the MLP-based agent experiences a loss corresponding to the initial environment setup, while our designed CNN remains stable, effectively learns the environment, and leads to an increase in rewards.