We describe a set of new methods to partially automate linguistic phylogenetic inference given (1) cognate sets with their respective protoforms and sound laws, (2) a mapping from phones to their articulatory features and (3) a typological database of sound changes. We train a neural network on these sound change data to weight articulatory distances between phones and predict intermediate sound change steps between historical protoforms and their modern descendants, replacing a linguistic expert in part of a parsimony-based phylogenetic inference algorithm. In our best experiments on Tukanoan languages, this method produces trees with a Generalized Quartet Distance of 0.12 from a tree that used expert annotations, a significant improvement over other semi-automated baselines. We discuss potential benefits and drawbacks to our neural approach and parsimony-based tree prediction. We also experiment with a minimal generalization learner for automatic sound law induction, finding it comparably effective to sound laws from expert annotation. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cmu-llab/aiscp.

In the realm of power systems, the increasing involvement of residential users in load forecasting applications has heightened concerns about data privacy. Specifically, the load data can inadvertently reveal the daily routines of residential users, thereby posing a risk to their property security. While federated learning (FL) has been employed to safeguard user privacy by enabling model training without the exchange of raw data, these FL models have shown vulnerabilities to emerging attack techniques, such as Deep Leakage from Gradients and poisoning attacks. To counteract these, we initially employ a Secure-Aggregation (SecAgg) algorithm that leverages multiparty computation cryptographic techniques to mitigate the risk of gradient leakage. However, the introduction of SecAgg necessitates the deployment of additional sub-center servers for executing the multiparty computation protocol, thereby escalating computational complexity and reducing system robustness, especially in scenarios where one or more sub-centers are unavailable. To address these challenges, we introduce a Markovian Switching-based distributed training framework, the convergence of which is substantiated through rigorous theoretical analysis. The Distributed Markovian Switching (DMS) topology shows strong robustness towards the poisoning attacks as well. Case studies employing real-world power system load data validate the efficacy of our proposed algorithm. It not only significantly minimizes communication complexity but also maintains accuracy levels comparable to traditional FL methods, thereby enhancing the scalability of our load forecasting algorithm.

When training predictive models on data with missing entries, the most widely used and versatile approach is a pipeline technique where we first impute missing entries and then compute predictions. In this paper, we view prediction with missing data as a two-stage adaptive optimization problem and propose a new class of models, adaptive linear regression models, where the regression coefficients adapt to the set of observed features. We show that some adaptive linear regression models are equivalent to learning an imputation rule and a downstream linear regression model simultaneously instead of sequentially. We leverage this joint-impute-then-regress interpretation to generalize our framework to non-linear models. In settings where data is strongly not missing at random, our methods achieve a 2-10% improvement in out-of-sample accuracy.

In molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, rare events, such as protein folding, are typically studied by means of enhanced sampling techniques, most of which rely on the definition of a collective variable (CV) along which the acceleration occurs. Obtaining an expressive CV is crucial, but often hindered by the lack of information about the particular event, e.g., the transition from unfolded to folded conformation. We propose a simulation-free data augmentation strategy using physics-inspired metrics to generate geodesic interpolations resembling protein folding transitions, thereby improving sampling efficiency without true transition state samples. Leveraging interpolation progress parameters, we introduce a regression-based learning scheme for CV models, which outperforms classifier-based methods when transition state data is limited and noisy

Based on SGD, previous works have proposed many algorithms that have improved convergence speed and generalization in stochastic optimization, such as SGDm, AdaGrad, Adam, etc. However, their convergence analysis under non-convex conditions is challenging. In this work, we propose a unified framework to address this issue. For any first-order methods, we interpret the updated direction $g_t$ as the sum of the stochastic subgradient $\nabla f_t(x_t)$ and an additional acceleration term $\frac{2|\langle v_t, \nabla f_t(x_t) \rangle|}{\|v_t\|_2^2} v_t$, thus we can discuss the convergence by analyzing $\langle v_t, \nabla f_t(x_t) \rangle$. Through our framework, we have discovered two plug-and-play acceleration methods: \textbf{Reject Accelerating} and \textbf{Random Vector Accelerating}, we theoretically demonstrate that these two methods can directly lead to an improvement in convergence rate.

Echoing recent calls to counter reliability and robustness concerns in machine learning via multiverse analysis, we present PRESTO, a principled framework for mapping the multiverse of machine-learning models that rely on latent representations. Although such models enjoy widespread adoption, the variability in their embeddings remains poorly understood, resulting in unnecessary complexity and untrustworthy representations. Our framework uses persistent homology to characterize the latent spaces arising from different combinations of diverse machine-learning methods, (hyper)parameter configurations, and datasets, allowing us to measure their pairwise (dis)similarity and statistically reason about their distributions. As we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically, our pipeline preserves desirable properties of collections of latent representations, and it can be leveraged to perform sensitivity analysis, detect anomalous embeddings, or efficiently and effectively navigate hyperparameter search spaces.

While information from the field of linguistic typology has the potential to improve performance on NLP tasks, reliable typological data is a prerequisite. Existing typological databases, including WALS and Grambank, suffer from inconsistencies primarily caused by their categorical format. Furthermore, typological categorisations by definition differ significantly from the continuous nature of phenomena, as found in natural language corpora. In this paper, we introduce a new seed dataset made up of continuous-valued data, rather than categorical data, that can better reflect the variability of language. While this initial dataset focuses on word-order typology, we also present the methodology used to create the dataset, which can be easily adapted to generate data for a broader set of features and languages.

Code switching (CS) is a very common phenomenon in written and spoken communication but one that is handled poorly by many natural language processing applications. Looking to the application of building CS corpora, we explore CS language identification (LID) for corpus building. We make the task more realistic by scaling it to more languages and considering models with simpler architectures for faster inference. We also reformulate the task as a sentence-level multi-label tagging problem to make it more tractable. Having defined the task, we investigate three reasonable models for this task and define metrics which better reflect desired performance. We present empirical evidence that no current approach is adequate and finally provide recommendations for future work in this area.

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees (especially random forests and gradient boosting) are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers - whose predictions can be understood as simple weighted averages of the training labels - randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias-and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles - because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

A major challenge in sample-based inference (SBI) for Bayesian neural networks is the size and structure of the networks' parameter space. Our work shows that successful SBI is possible by embracing the characteristic relationship between weight and function space, uncovering a systematic link between overparameterization and the difficulty of the sampling problem. Through extensive experiments, we establish practical guidelines for sampling and convergence diagnosis. As a result, we present a Bayesian deep ensemble approach as an effective solution with competitive performance and uncertainty quantification.