Statistical Learning
Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Pan, Zijie, Jiang, Yushan, Song, Dongjin, Garg, Sahil, Rasul, Kashif, Schneider, Anderson, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy
Recent studies in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting reveal that explicitly modeling the hidden dependencies among different time series can yield promising forecasting performance and reliable explanations. However, modeling variable dependencies remains underexplored when MTS is continuously accumulated under different regimes (stages). Due to the potential distribution and dependency disparities, the underlying model may encounter the catastrophic forgetting problem, i.e., it is challenging to memorize and infer different types of variable dependencies across different regimes while maintaining forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Learning (SKI-CL) framework to perform MTS forecasting within a continual learning paradigm, which leverages structural knowledge to steer the forecasting model toward identifying and adapting to different regimes, and selects representative MTS samples from each regime for memory replay. Specifically, we develop a forecasting model based on graph structure learning, where a consistency regularization scheme is imposed between the learned variable dependencies and the structural knowledge while optimizing the forecasting objective over the MTS data. As such, MTS representations learned in each regime are associated with distinct structural knowledge, which helps the model memorize a variety of conceivable scenarios and results in accurate forecasts in the continual learning context. Meanwhile, we develop a representation-matching memory replay scheme that maximizes the temporal coverage of MTS data to efficiently preserve the underlying temporal dynamics and dependency structures of each regime. Thorough empirical studies on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate SKI-CL's efficacy and advantages over the state-of-the-art for continual MTS forecasting tasks.
ConSmax: Hardware-Friendly Alternative Softmax with Learnable Parameters
Liu, Shiwei, Tao, Guanchen, Zou, Yifei, Chow, Derek, Fan, Zichen, Lei, Kauna, Pan, Bangfei, Sylvester, Dennis, Kielian, Gregory, Saligane, Mehdi
The self-attention mechanism sets transformer-based large language model (LLM) apart from the convolutional and recurrent neural networks. Despite the performance improvement, achieving real-time LLM inference on silicon is challenging due to the extensively used Softmax in self-attention. Apart from the non-linearity, the low arithmetic intensity greatly reduces the processing parallelism, which becomes the bottleneck especially when dealing with a longer context. To address this challenge, we propose Constant Softmax (ConSmax), a software-hardware co-design as an efficient Softmax alternative. ConSmax employs differentiable normalization parameters to remove the maximum searching and denominator summation in Softmax. It allows for massive parallelization while performing the critical tasks of Softmax. In addition, a scalable ConSmax hardware utilizing a bitwidth-split look-up table (LUT) can produce lossless non-linear operation and support mix-precision computing. It further facilitates efficient LLM inference. Experimental results show that ConSmax achieves a minuscule power consumption of 0.43 mW and area of 0.001 mm2 at 1-GHz working frequency and 22-nm CMOS technology. Compared to state-of-the-art Softmax hardware, ConSmax results in 14.5x energy and 14.0x area savings with a comparable accuracy on a GPT-2 model and the WikiText103 dataset.
User Modeling and User Profiling: A Comprehensive Survey
Purificato, Erasmo, Boratto, Ludovico, De Luca, Ernesto William
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into daily life, particularly through information retrieval and recommender systems, has necessitated advanced user modeling and profiling techniques to deliver personalized experiences. These techniques aim to construct accurate user representations based on the rich amounts of data generated through interactions with these systems. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the current state, evolution, and future directions of user modeling and profiling research. We provide a historical overview, tracing the development from early stereotype models to the latest deep learning techniques, and propose a novel taxonomy that encompasses all active topics in this research area, including recent trends. Our survey highlights the paradigm shifts towards more sophisticated user profiling methods, emphasizing implicit data collection, multi-behavior modeling, and the integration of graph data structures. We also address the critical need for privacy-preserving techniques and the push towards explainability and fairness in user modeling approaches. By examining the definitions of core terminology, we aim to clarify ambiguities and foster a clearer understanding of the field by proposing two novel encyclopedic definitions of the main terms. Furthermore, we explore the application of user modeling in various domains, such as fake news detection, cybersecurity, and personalized education. This survey serves as a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into the evolution of user modeling and profiling and guiding the development of more personalized, ethical, and effective AI systems.
Context-Aware Quantitative Risk Assessment Machine Learning Model for Drivers Distraction
Fasanmade, Adebamigbe, Al-Bayatti, Ali H., Morden, Jarrad Neil, Caraffini, Fabio
Risk mitigation techniques are critical to avoiding accidents associated with driving behaviour. We provide a novel Multi-Class Driver Distraction Risk Assessment (MDDRA) model that considers the vehicle, driver, and environmental data during a journey. MDDRA categorises the driver on a risk matrix as safe, careless, or dangerous. It offers flexibility in adjusting the parameters and weights to consider each event on a specific severity level. We collect real-world data using the Field Operation Test (TeleFOT), covering drivers using the same routes in the East Midlands, United Kingdom (UK). The results show that reducing road accidents caused by driver distraction is possible. We also study the correlation between distraction (driver, vehicle, and environment) and the classification severity based on a continuous distraction severity score. Furthermore, we apply machine learning techniques to classify and predict driver distraction according to severity levels to aid the transition of control from the driver to the vehicle (vehicle takeover) when a situation is deemed risky. The Ensemble Bagged Trees algorithm performed best, with an accuracy of 96.2%.
Learning to Retrieve for Job Matching
Shen, Jianqiang, Juan, Yuchin, Zhang, Shaobo, Liu, Ping, Pu, Wen, Vasudevan, Sriram, Song, Qingquan, Borisyuk, Fedor, Shen, Kay Qianqi, Wei, Haichao, Ren, Yunxiang, Chiou, Yeou S., Kuang, Sicong, Yin, Yuan, Zheng, Ben, Wu, Muchen, Gharghabi, Shaghayegh, Wang, Xiaoqing, Xue, Huichao, Guo, Qi, Hewlett, Daniel, Simon, Luke, Hong, Liangjie, Zhang, Wenjing
Web-scale search systems typically tackle the scalability challenge As one of the largest professional networking platforms globally, with a two-step paradigm: retrieval and ranking. The retrieval step, LinkedIn is a hub for job seekers and recruiters, with 65M+ job also known as candidate selection, often involves extracting standardized seekers utilizing the search and recommendation services weekly entities, creating an inverted index, and performing term to discover millions of open job listings. To enable realtime personalization matching for retrieval. Such traditional methods require manual for job seekers, we adopted the classic two-stage paradigm and time-consuming development of query models. In this paper, of retrieval and ranking to tackle the scalability challenge. The retrieval we discuss applying learning-to-retrieve technology to enhance layer, also known as candidate selection, chooses a small set LinkedIn's job search and recommendation systems. In the realm of of relevant jobs from the set of all jobs, after which the ranking layer promoted jobs, the key objective is to improve the quality of applicants, performs a more computationally expensive second-pass scoring thereby delivering value to recruiter customers. To achieve and sorting of the resulting candidate set. This paper focuses on this, we leverage confirmed hire data to construct a graph that improving the methodology and systems for retrieval.
IT Intrusion Detection Using Statistical Learning and Testbed Measurements
We study automated intrusion detection in an IT infrastructure, specifically the problem of identifying the start of an attack, the type of attack, and the sequence of actions an attacker takes, based on continuous measurements from the infrastructure. We apply statistical learning methods, including Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to map sequences of observations to sequences of predicted attack actions. In contrast to most related research, we have abundant data to train the models and evaluate their predictive power. The data comes from traces we generate on an in-house testbed where we run attacks against an emulated IT infrastructure. Central to our work is a machine-learning pipeline that maps measurements from a high-dimensional observation space to a space of low dimensionality or to a small set of observation symbols. Investigating intrusions in offline as well as online scenarios, we find that both HMM and LSTM can be effective in predicting attack start time, attack type, and attack actions. If sufficient training data is available, LSTM achieves higher prediction accuracy than HMM. HMM, on the other hand, requires less computational resources and less training data for effective prediction. Also, we find that the methods we study benefit from data produced by traditional intrusion detection systems like SNORT.
More Discriminative Sentence Embeddings via Semantic Graph Smoothing
Fettal, Chakib, Labiod, Lazhar, Nadif, Mohamed
Simplified versions of this Text categorization, also known as document categorization, deep architecture have been proposed wherein the is a natural language processing (NLP) learning of large sets of weights has been deemed task that involves arranging texts into coherent unnecessary. Their representation learning scheme groups based on their content. It has many applications works similar to Laplacian smoothing and, by extension, such as spam detection (Jindal and Liu, 2007), graph filtering. We can give as examples sentiment analysis (Melville et al., 2009), content of these simplified techniques the simple graph convolution recommendation (Pazzani and Billsus, 2007), etc. (SGC) (Wu et al., 2019), and the simple There are two main approaches to text categorization: spectral graph convolution (S GC) (Zhu and Koniusz, classification (supervised learning) and clustering 2020). Some researchers used GCNs for the (unsupervised learning).
Private Gradient Descent for Linear Regression: Tighter Error Bounds and Instance-Specific Uncertainty Estimation
Brown, Gavin, Dvijotham, Krishnamurthy, Evans, Georgina, Liu, Daogao, Smith, Adam, Thakurta, Abhradeep
We provide an improved analysis of standard differentially private gradient descent for linear regression under the squared error loss. Under modest assumptions on the input, we characterize the distribution of the iterate at each time step. Our analysis leads to new results on the algorithm's accuracy: for a proper fixed choice of hyperparameters, the sample complexity depends only linearly on the dimension of the data. This matches the dimension-dependence of the (non-private) ordinary least squares estimator as well as that of recent private algorithms that rely on sophisticated adaptive gradient-clipping schemes (Varshney et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2023). Our analysis of the iterates' distribution also allows us to construct confidence intervals for the empirical optimizer which adapt automatically to the variance of the algorithm on a particular data set. We validate our theorems through experiments on synthetic data.
Learning Exceptional Subgroups by End-to-End Maximizing KL-divergence
Xu, Sascha, Walter, Nils Philipp, Kalofolias, Janis, Vreeken, Jilles
Finding and describing sub-populations that are exceptional regarding a target property has important applications in many scientific disciplines, from identifying disadvantaged demographic groups in census data to finding conductive molecules within gold nanoparticles. Current approaches to finding such subgroups require pre-discretized predictive variables, do not permit non-trivial target distributions, do not scale to large datasets, and struggle to find diverse results. To address these limitations, we propose Syflow, an end-to-end optimizable approach in which we leverage normalizing flows to model arbitrary target distributions, and introduce a novel neural layer that results in easily interpretable subgroup descriptions. We demonstrate on synthetic and real-world data, including a case study, that Syflow reliably finds highly exceptional subgroups accompanied by insightful descriptions.
APT-MMF: An advanced persistent threat actor attribution method based on multimodal and multilevel feature fusion
Xiao, Nan, Lang, Bo, Wang, Ting, Chen, Yikai
Threat actor attribution is a crucial defense strategy for combating advanced persistent threats (APTs). Cyber threat intelligence (CTI), which involves analyzing multisource heterogeneous data from APTs, plays an important role in APT actor attribution. The current attribution methods extract features from different CTI perspectives and employ machine learning models to classify CTI reports according to their threat actors. However, these methods usually extract only one kind of feature and ignore heterogeneous information, especially the attributes and relations of indicators of compromise (IOCs), which form the core of CTI. To address these problems, we propose an APT actor attribution method based on multimodal and multilevel feature fusion (APT-MMF). First, we leverage a heterogeneous attributed graph to characterize APT reports and their IOC information. Then, we extract and fuse multimodal features, including attribute type features, natural language text features and topological relationship features, to construct comprehensive node representations. Furthermore, we design multilevel heterogeneous graph attention networks to learn the deep hidden features of APT report nodes; these networks integrate IOC type-level, metapath-based neighbor node-level, and metapath semantic-level attention. Utilizing multisource threat intelligence, we construct a heterogeneous attributed graph dataset for verification purposes. The experimental results show that our method not only outperforms the existing methods but also demonstrates its good interpretability for attribution analysis tasks.