Statistical Learning
ProIn: Learning to Predict Trajectory Based on Progressive Interactions for Autonomous Driving
Dong, Yinke, Yuan, Haifeng, Liu, Hongkun, Jing, Wei, Li, Fangzhen, Liu, Hongmin, Fan, Bin
Accurate motion prediction of pedestrians, cyclists, and other surrounding vehicles (all called agents) is very important for autonomous driving. Most existing works capture map information through an one-stage interaction with map by vector-based attention, to provide map constraints for social interaction and multi-modal differentiation. However, these methods have to encode all required map rules into the focal agent's feature, so as to retain all possible intentions' paths while at the meantime to adapt to potential social interaction. In this work, a progressive interaction network is proposed to enable the agent's feature to progressively focus on relevant maps, in order to better learn agents' feature representation capturing the relevant map constraints. The network progressively encode the complex influence of map constraints into the agent's feature through graph convolutions at the following three stages: after historical trajectory encoder, after social interaction, and after multi-modal differentiation. In addition, a weight allocation mechanism is proposed for multi-modal training, so that each mode can obtain learning opportunities from a single-mode ground truth. Experiments have validated the superiority of progressive interactions to the existing one-stage interaction, and demonstrate the effectiveness of each component. Encouraging results were obtained in the challenging benchmarks.
One Masked Model is All You Need for Sensor Fault Detection, Isolation and Accommodation
Accurate and reliable sensor measurements are critical for ensuring the safety and longevity of complex engineering systems such as wind turbines. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for sensor fault detection, isolation, and accommodation (FDIA) using masked models and self-supervised learning. Our proposed approach is a general time series modeling approach that can be applied to any neural network (NN) model capable of sequence modeling, and captures the complex spatio-temporal relationships among different sensors. During training, the proposed masked approach creates a random mask, which acts like a fault, for one or more sensors, making the training and inference task unified: finding the faulty sensors and correcting them. We validate our proposed technique on both a public dataset and a real-world dataset from GE offshore wind turbines, and demonstrate its effectiveness in detecting, diagnosing and correcting sensor faults. The masked model not only simplifies the overall FDIA pipeline, but also outperforms existing approaches. Our proposed technique has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of sensor measurements in complex engineering systems in real-time, and could be applied to other types of sensors and engineering systems in the future. We believe that our proposed framework can contribute to the development of more efficient and effective FDIA techniques for a wide range of applications.
What Happens to a Dataset Transformed by a Projection-based Concept Removal Method?
We investigate the behavior of methods that use linear projections to remove information about a concept from a language representation, and we consider the question of what happens to a dataset transformed by such a method. A theoretical analysis and experiments on real-world and synthetic data show that these methods inject strong statistical dependencies into the transformed datasets. After applying such a method, the representation space is highly structured: in the transformed space, an instance tends to be located near instances of the opposite label. As a consequence, the original labeling can in some cases be reconstructed by applying an anti-clustering method.
Multi-Task Learning with Multi-Task Optimization
Bai, Lu, Gupta, Abhishek, Ong, Yew-Soon
Multi-task learning solves multiple correlated tasks. However, conflicts may exist between them. In such circumstances, a single solution can rarely optimize all the tasks, leading to performance trade-offs. To arrive at a set of optimized yet well-distributed models that collectively embody different trade-offs in one algorithmic pass, this paper proposes to view Pareto multi-task learning through the lens of multi-task optimization. Multi-task learning is first cast as a multi-objective optimization problem, which is then decomposed into a diverse set of unconstrained scalar-valued subproblems. These subproblems are solved jointly using a novel multi-task gradient descent method, whose uniqueness lies in the iterative transfer of model parameters among the subproblems during the course of optimization. A theorem proving faster convergence through the inclusion of such transfers is presented. We investigate the proposed multi-task learning with multi-task optimization for solving various problem settings including image classification, scene understanding, and multi-target regression. Comprehensive experiments confirm that the proposed method significantly advances the state-of-the-art in discovering sets of Pareto-optimized models. Notably, on the large image dataset we tested on, namely NYUv2, the hypervolume convergence achieved by our method was found to be nearly two times faster than the next-best among the state-of-the-art.
A Survey on Self-Supervised Pre-Training of Graph Foundation Models: A Knowledge-Based Perspective
Zhao, Ziwen, Li, Yuhua, Zou, Yixiong, Li, Ruixuan, Zhang, Rui
Graph self-supervised learning is now a go-to method for pre-training graph foundation models, including graph neural networks, graph transformers, and more recent large language model (LLM)-based graph models. There is a wide variety of knowledge patterns embedded in the structure and properties of graphs which may be used for pre-training, but we lack a systematic overview of self-supervised pre-training tasks from the perspective of graph knowledge. In this paper, we comprehensively survey and analyze the pre-training tasks of graph foundation models from a knowledge-based perspective, consisting of microscopic (nodes, links, etc) and macroscopic knowledge (clusters, global structure, etc). It covers a total of 9 knowledge categories and 25 pre-training tasks, as well as various downstream task adaptation strategies. Furthermore, an extensive list of the related papers with detailed metadata is provided at https://github.com/Newiz430/Pretext.
Interpretable Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Prediction: A Survey
Yang, Ruyi, Hu, Jingyu, Li, Zihao, Mu, Jianli, Yu, Tingzhao, Xia, Jiangjiang, Li, Xuhong, Dasgupta, Aritra, Xiong, Haoyi
Advanced machine learning models have recently achieved high predictive accuracy for weather and climate prediction. However, these complex models often lack inherent transparency and interpretability, acting as "black boxes" that impede user trust and hinder further model improvements. As such, interpretable machine learning techniques have become crucial in enhancing the credibility and utility of weather and climate modeling. In this survey, we review current interpretable machine learning approaches applied to meteorological predictions. We categorize methods into two major paradigms: 1) Post-hoc interpretability techniques that explain pre-trained models, such as perturbation-based, game theory based, and gradient-based attribution methods. 2) Designing inherently interpretable models from scratch using architectures like tree ensembles and explainable neural networks. We summarize how each technique provides insights into the predictions, uncovering novel meteorological relationships captured by machine learning. Lastly, we discuss research challenges around achieving deeper mechanistic interpretations aligned with physical principles, developing standardized evaluation benchmarks, integrating interpretability into iterative model development workflows, and providing explainability for large foundation models.
FedNMUT -- Federated Noisy Model Update Tracking Convergence Analysis
Chellapandi, Vishnu Pandi, Upadhyay, Antesh, Hashemi, Abolfazl, Żak, Stanislaw H.
A novel Decentralized Noisy Model Update Tracking Federated Learning algorithm (FedNMUT) is proposed that is tailored to function efficiently in the presence of noisy communication channels that reflect imperfect information exchange. This algorithm uses gradient tracking to minimize the impact of data heterogeneity while minimizing communication overhead. The proposed algorithm incorporates noise into its parameters to mimic the conditions of noisy communication channels, thereby enabling consensus among clients through a communication graph topology in such challenging environments. FedNMUT prioritizes parameter sharing and noise incorporation to increase the resilience of decentralized learning systems against noisy communications. Theoretical results for the smooth non-convex objective function are provided by us, and it is shown that the $\epsilon-$stationary solution is achieved by our algorithm at the rate of $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}}\right)$, where $T$ is the total number of communication rounds. Additionally, via empirical validation, we demonstrated that the performance of FedNMUT is superior to the existing state-of-the-art methods and conventional parameter-mixing approaches in dealing with imperfect information sharing. This proves the capability of the proposed algorithm to counteract the negative effects of communication noise in a decentralized learning framework.
SynerMix: Synergistic Mixup Solution for Enhanced Intra-Class Cohesion and Inter-Class Separability in Image Classification
Xu, Ye, Gao, Ya, Qiu, Xiaorong, Chen, Yang, Ji, Ying
To address the issues of MixUp and its variants (e.g., Manifold MixUp) in image classification tasks-namely, their neglect of mixing within the same class (intra-class mixup) and their inadequacy in enhancing intra-class cohesion through their mixing operations-we propose a novel mixup method named SynerMix-Intra and, building upon this, introduce a synergistic mixup solution named SynerMix. SynerMix-Intra specifically targets intra-class mixup to bolster intra-class cohesion, a feature not addressed by current mixup methods. For each mini-batch, it leverages feature representations of unaugmented original images from each class to generate a synthesized feature representation through random linear interpolation. All synthesized representations are then fed into the classification and loss layers to calculate an average classification loss that significantly enhances intra-class cohesion. Furthermore, SynerMix combines SynerMix-Intra with an existing mixup approach (e.g., MixUp, Manifold MixUp), which primarily focuses on inter-class mixup and has the benefit of enhancing inter-class separability. In doing so, it integrates both inter- and intra-class mixup in a balanced way while concurrently improving intra-class cohesion and inter-class separability. Experimental results on six datasets show that SynerMix achieves a 0.1% to 3.43% higher accuracy than the best of either MixUp or SynerMix-Intra alone, averaging a 1.16% gain. It also surpasses the top-performer of either Manifold MixUp or SynerMix-Intra by 0.12% to 5.16%, with an average gain of 1.11%. Given that SynerMix is model-agnostic, it holds significant potential for application in other domains where mixup methods have shown promise, such as speech and text classification. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/wxitxy/synermix.git.
Stochastic Optimization with Constraints: A Non-asymptotic Instance-Dependent Analysis
We consider the problem of stochastic convex optimization under convex constraints. We analyze the behavior of a natural variance reduced proximal gradient (VRPG) algorithm for this problem. Our main result is a non-asymptotic guarantee for VRPG algorithm. Contrary to minimax worst case guarantees, our result is instance-dependent in nature. This means that our guarantee captures the complexity of the loss function, the variability of the noise, and the geometry of the constraint set. We show that the non-asymptotic performance of the VRPG algorithm is governed by the scaled distance (scaled by $\sqrt{N}$) between the solutions of the given problem and that of a certain small perturbation of the given problem -- both solved under the given convex constraints; here, $N$ denotes the number of samples. Leveraging a well-established connection between local minimax lower bounds and solutions to perturbed problems, we show that as $N \rightarrow \infty$, the VRPG algorithm achieves the renowned local minimax lower bound by H\`{a}jek and Le Cam up to universal constants and a logarithmic factor of the sample size.
Real-time Adaptation for Condition Monitoring Signal Prediction using Label-aware Neural Processes
Chung, Seokhyun, Kontar, Raed Al
Building a predictive model that rapidly adapts to real-time condition monitoring (CM) signals is critical for engineering systems/units. Unfortunately, many current methods suffer from a trade-off between representation power and agility in online settings. For instance, parametric methods that assume an underlying functional form for CM signals facilitate efficient online prediction updates. However, this simplification leads to vulnerability to model specifications and an inability to capture complex signals. On the other hand, approaches based on over-parameterized or non-parametric models can excel at explaining complex nonlinear signals, but real-time updates for such models pose a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a neural process-based approach that addresses this trade-off. It encodes available observations within a CM signal into a representation space and then reconstructs the signal's history and evolution for prediction. Once trained, the model can encode an arbitrary number of observations without requiring retraining, enabling on-the-spot real-time predictions along with quantified uncertainty and can be readily updated as more online data is gathered. Furthermore, our model is designed to incorporate qualitative information (i.e., labels) from individual units. This integration not only enhances individualized predictions for each unit but also enables joint inference for both signals and their associated labels. Numerical studies on both synthetic and real-world data in reliability engineering highlight the advantageous features of our model in real-time adaptation, enhanced signal prediction with uncertainty quantification, and joint prediction for labels and signals.