The paper shows that the application of the fixed-effect multiple linear regression model to an overparameterized dataset is equivalent to fitting the data with a hyper-curve parameterized by a single scalar parameter. This equivalence allows for a predictor-focused approach, where each predictor is described by a function of the chosen parameter. It is proven that a linear model will produce exact predictions even in the presence of nonlinear dependencies that violate the model assumptions. Parameterization in terms of the dependent variable and the monomial basis in the predictor function space are applied here to both synthetic and experimental data. The hyper-curve approach is especially suited for the regularization of problems with noise in predictor variables and can be used to remove noisy and "improper" predictors from the model.

In this paper, we advocate a novel measure for the purpose of checking the quality of a cluster partition for a sample into several distinct classes, and thus, determine the unknown value for the true number of clusters prevailing the provided set of data. Our objective leads us to the development of an approach through applying the multinomial distribution to the distances of data members, clustered in a group, from their respective cluster representatives. This procedure is carried out independently for each of the clusters, and the concerned statistics are combined together to design our targeted measure. Individual clusters separately possess the category-wise probabilities which correspond to different positions of its members in the cluster with respect to a typical member, in the form of cluster-centroid, medoid or mode, referred to as the corresponding cluster representative. Our method is robust in the sense that it is distribution-free, since this is devised irrespective of the parent distribution of the underlying sample. It fulfills one of the rare coveted qualities, present in the existing cluster accuracy measures, of having the capability to investigate whether the assigned sample owns any inherent clusters other than a single group of all members or not. Our measure's simple concept, easy algorithm, fast runtime, good performance, and wide usefulness, demonstrated through extensive simulation and diverse case-studies, make it appealing.

Determining which parameters of a non-linear model could best describe a set of experimental data is a fundamental problem in science and it has gained much traction lately with the rise of complex large-scale simulators (a.k.a. black-box simulators). The likelihood of such models is typically intractable, which is why classical MCMC methods can not be used. Simulation-based inference (SBI) stands out in this context by only requiring a dataset of simulations to train deep generative models capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation. In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available and one wishes to leverage their shared information to better infer the parameters of the model. The method we propose is built upon recent developments from the flourishing score-based diffusion literature and allows us to estimate the tall data posterior distribution simply using information from the score network trained on individual observations. We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.

Real-world datasets usually are class-imbalanced and corrupted by label noise. To solve the joint issue of long-tailed distribution and label noise, most previous works usually aim to design a noise detector to distinguish the noisy and clean samples. Despite their effectiveness, they may be limited in handling the joint issue effectively in a unified way. In this work, we develop a novel pseudo labeling method using class prototypes from the perspective of distribution matching, which can be solved with optimal transport (OT). By setting a manually-specific probability measure and using a learned transport plan to pseudo-label the training samples, the proposed method can reduce the side-effects of noisy and long-tailed data simultaneously. Then we introduce a simple yet effective filter criteria by combining the observed labels and pseudo labels to obtain a more balanced and less noisy subset for a robust model training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can extract this class-balanced subset with clean labels, which brings effective performance gains for long-tailed classification with label noise.

Catastrophe (CAT) bonds have become increasingly vital in managing and transferring catastrophic risk. These bonds offer a source of capital to cover losses arising from natural disasters, allowing investors to diversify their portfolios while helping issuers mitigate potentially devastating financial consequences. Understanding the pricing dynamics of CAT bonds is essential, both for investors seeking informed decisions and for issuers optimizing their risk management strategies. This paper introduces a probabilistic machine-learning-based predictive framework for the pricing of CAT bonds, aiming to enhance empirical pricing accuracy and discover previously undetected nonlinear dependence between the key risk factors and CAT bond spreads. Early research by Lane (2000) laid the groundwork for CAT bond pricing literature, proposing a log-linear regression model employing conditional expected loss and probability of first loss as predictors. Subsequent studies expanded on this linear framework, incorporating additional predictors and examining pricing under diverse conditions. Gürtler et al. (2016) incorporated bond characteristics like trigger type and bond rating, while Braun (2016) integrated market condition indices, such as the Lane Synthetic Rate on Line index and the BB corporate bond spread. Götze and Gürtler (2020a) explored sponsor-related pricing inefficiencies across different market conditions, and Morana and Sbrana (2019) focused on the impact of climate change on CAT bond returns. Further extending the research scope, Zhao and Yu (2020) utilized actual catastrophe data to forecast CAT bond prices using market-based methods, Braun et al. (2022) developed factor pricing models for cross-sectional CAT bond returns, and Herrmann and Hibbeln (2023) investigated liquidity premiums in the secondary market.

In robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery (RAMIS), optimal placement of the surgical robot base is crucial for successful surgery. Improper placement can hinder performance because of manipulator limitations and inaccessible workspaces. Conventional base placement relies on the experience of trained medical staff. This study proposes a novel method for determining the optimal base pose based on the surgeon's working pattern. The proposed method analyzes recorded end-effector poses using a machine learning-based clustering technique to identify key positions and orientations preferred by the surgeon. We introduce two scoring metrics to address the joint limit and singularity issues: joint margin and manipulability scores. We then train a multi-layer perceptron regressor to predict the optimal base pose based on these scores. Evaluation in a simulated environment using the da Vinci Research Kit shows unique base pose score maps for four volunteers, highlighting the individuality of the working patterns. Results comparing with 20,000 randomly selected base poses suggest that the score obtained using the proposed method is 28.2% higher than that obtained by random base placement. These results emphasize the need for operator-specific optimization during base placement in RAMIS.

Federated learning (FL) is a privacy-preserving distributed framework for collaborative model training on devices in edge networks. However, challenges arise due to vulnerability to adversarial examples (AEs) and the non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) nature of data distribution among devices, hindering the deployment of adversarially robust and accurate learning models at the edge. While adversarial training (AT) is commonly acknowledged as an effective defense strategy against adversarial attacks in centralized training, we shed light on the adverse effects of directly applying AT in FL that can severely compromise accuracy, especially in non-IID challenges. Given this limitation, this paper proposes FatCC, which incorporates local logit \underline{C}alibration and global feature \underline{C}ontrast into the vanilla federated adversarial training (\underline{FAT}) process from both logit and feature perspectives. This approach can effectively enhance the federated system's robust accuracy (RA) and clean accuracy (CA). First, we propose logit calibration, where the logits are calibrated during local adversarial updates, thereby improving adversarial robustness. Second, FatCC introduces feature contrast, which involves a global alignment term that aligns each local representation with unbiased global features, thus further enhancing robustness and accuracy in federated adversarial environments. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate that FatCC achieves comparable or superior performance gains in both CA and RA compared to other baselines.

From a process development perspective, diamond growth via chemical vapor deposition has made significant strides. However, challenges persist in achieving high quality and large-area material production. These difficulties include controlling conditions to maintain uniform growth rates for the entire growth surface. As growth progresses, various factors or defect states emerge, altering the uniform conditions. These changes affect the growth rate and result in the formation of crystalline defects at the microscale. However, there is a distinct lack of methods to identify these defect states and their geometry using images taken during the growth process. This paper details seminal work on defect segmentation pipeline using in-situ optical images to identify features that indicate defective states that are visible at the macroscale. Using a semantic segmentation approach as applied in our previous work, these defect states and corresponding derivative features are isolated and classified by their pixel masks. Using an annotation focused human-in-the-loop software architecture to produce training datasets, with modules for selective data labeling using active learning, data augmentations, and model-assisted labeling, our approach achieves effective annotation accuracy and drastically reduces the time and cost of labeling by orders of magnitude. On the model development front, we found that deep learning-based algorithms are the most efficient. They can accurately learn complex representations from feature-rich datasets. Our best-performing model, based on the YOLOV3 and DeeplabV3plus architectures, achieved excellent accuracy for specific features of interest. Specifically, it reached 93.35% accuracy for center defects, 92.83% for polycrystalline defects, and 91.98% for edge defects.

Model explanations improve the transparency of black-box machine learning (ML) models and their decisions; however, they can also be exploited to carry out privacy threats such as membership inference attacks (MIA). Existing works have only analyzed MIA in a single "what if" interaction scenario between an adversary and the target ML model; thus, it does not discern the factors impacting the capabilities of an adversary in launching MIA in repeated interaction settings. Additionally, these works rely on assumptions about the adversary's knowledge of the target model's structure and, thus, do not guarantee the optimality of the predefined threshold required to distinguish the members from non-members. In this paper, we delve into the domain of explanation-based threshold attacks, where the adversary endeavors to carry out MIA attacks by leveraging the variance of explanations through iterative interactions with the system comprising of the target ML model and its corresponding explanation method. We model such interactions by employing a continuous-time stochastic signaling game framework. In our framework, an adversary plays a stopping game, interacting with the system (having imperfect information about the type of an adversary, i.e., honest or malicious) to obtain explanation variance information and computing an optimal threshold to determine the membership of a datapoint accurately. First, we propose a sound mathematical formulation to prove that such an optimal threshold exists, which can be used to launch MIA. Then, we characterize the conditions under which a unique Markov perfect equilibrium (or steady state) exists in this dynamic system. By means of a comprehensive set of simulations of the proposed game model, we assess different factors that can impact the capability of an adversary to launch MIA in such repeated interaction settings.

Many explainable AI (XAI) techniques strive for interpretability by providing concise salient information, such as sparse linear factors. However, users either only see inaccurate global explanations, or highly-varying local explanations. We propose to provide more detailed explanations by leveraging the human cognitive capacity to accumulate knowledge by incrementally receiving more details. Focusing on linear factor explanations (factors $\times$ values = outcome), we introduce Incremental XAI to automatically partition explanations for general and atypical instances by providing Base + Incremental factors to help users read and remember more faithful explanations. Memorability is improved by reusing base factors and reducing the number of factors shown in atypical cases. In modeling, formative, and summative user studies, we evaluated the faithfulness, memorability and understandability of Incremental XAI against baseline explanation methods. This work contributes towards more usable explanation that users can better ingrain to facilitate intuitive engagement with AI.