The Bitcoin Lightning Network is a Layer 2 payment protocol that addresses Bitcoin's scalability by facilitating quick and cost effective transactions through payment channels. This research explores the feasibility of using machine learning models to interpolate channel balances within the network, which can be used for optimizing the network's pathfinding algorithms. While there has been much exploration in balance probing and multipath payment protocols, predicting channel balances using solely node and channel features remains an uncharted area. This paper evaluates the performance of several machine learning models against two heuristic baselines and investigates the predictive capabilities of various features. Our model performs favorably in experimental evaluation, outperforming by 10% against an equal split baseline where both edges are assigned half of the channel capacity.

The presence of interference, where the outcome of an individual may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of neighboring nodes, can lead to biased causal effect estimation. Current approaches to network experiment design focus on limiting interference through cluster-based randomization, in which clusters are identified using graph clustering, and cluster randomization dictates the node assignment to treatment and control. However, cluster-based randomization approaches perform poorly when interference propagates in cascades, whereby the response of individuals to treatment propagates to their multi-hop neighbors. When we have knowledge of the cascade seed nodes, we can leverage this interference structure to mitigate the resulting causal effect estimation bias. With this goal, we propose a cascade-based network experiment design that initiates treatment assignment from the cascade seed node and propagates the assignment to their multi-hop neighbors to limit interference during cascade growth and thereby reduce the overall causal effect estimation error. Our extensive experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms the existing state-of-the-art approaches in estimating causal effects in network data.

The reason for Meta Overfitting can be attributed to two factors: Mutual Non-exclusivity and the Lack of diversity, consequent to which a single global function can fit the support set data of all the meta-training tasks and fail to generalize to new unseen tasks. This issue is evidenced by low error rates on the meta-training tasks, but high error rates on new tasks. However, there can be a number of novel solutions to this problem keeping in mind any of the two objectives to be attained, i.e. to increase diversity in the tasks and to reduce the confidence of the model for some of the tasks. In light of the above, this paper proposes a number of solutions to tackle meta-overfitting on few-shot learning settings, such as few-shot sinusoid regression and few shot classification. Our proposed approaches demonstrate improved generalization performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines for learning in a non-mutually exclusive task setting. Overall, this paper aims to provide insights into tackling overfitting in meta-learning and to advance the field towards more robust and generalizable models.

Machine Learning algorithms (ML) impact virtually every aspect of human lives and have found use across diverse sectors, including healthcare, finance, and education. Often, ML algorithms have been found to exacerbate societal biases presented in datasets, leading to adversarial impacts on subsets/groups of individuals, in many cases minority groups. To effectively mitigate these untoward effects, it is crucial that disparities/biases are identified and assessed early in a ML pipeline. This proactive approach facilitates timely interventions to prevent bias amplification and reduce complexity at later stages of model development. In this paper, we introduce DispaRisk, a novel framework designed to proactively assess the potential risks of disparities in datasets during the initial stages of the ML pipeline. We evaluate DispaRisk's effectiveness by benchmarking it with commonly used datasets in fairness research. Our findings demonstrate the capabilities of DispaRisk to identify datasets with a high-risk of discrimination, model families prone to biases, and characteristics that heighten discrimination susceptibility in a ML pipeline. The code for our experiments is available in the following repository: https://github.com/jovasque156/disparisk

Text classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples -- correctly-classified examples that are deliberately transformed to be misclassified while satisfying acceptability constraints. The conventional approach to finding adversarial examples is to define and solve a combinatorial optimisation problem over a space of allowable transformations. While effective, this approach is slow and limited by the choice of transformations. An alternate approach is to directly generate adversarial examples by fine-tuning a pre-trained language model, as is commonly done for other text-to-text tasks. This approach promises to be much quicker and more expressive, but is relatively unexplored. For this reason, in this work we train an encoder-decoder paraphrase model to generate a diverse range of adversarial examples. For training, we adopt a reinforcement learning algorithm and propose a constraint-enforcing reward that promotes the generation of valid adversarial examples. Experimental results over two text classification datasets show that our model has achieved a higher success rate than the original paraphrase model, and overall has proved more effective than other competitive attacks. Finally, we show how key design choices impact the generated examples and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed approach.

Ordinal Classification (OC) is a widely encountered challenge in Natural Language Processing (NLP), with applications in various domains such as sentiment analysis, rating prediction, and more. Previous approaches to tackle OC have primarily focused on modifying existing or creating novel loss functions that \textbf{explicitly} account for the ordinal nature of labels. However, with the advent of Pretrained Language Models (PLMs), it became possible to tackle ordinality through the \textbf{implicit} semantics of the labels as well. This paper provides a comprehensive theoretical and empirical examination of both these approaches. Furthermore, we also offer strategic recommendations regarding the most effective approach to adopt based on specific settings.

Financial market risk forecasting involves applying mathematical models, historical data analysis and statistical methods to estimate the impact of future market movements on investments. This process is crucial for investors to develop strategies, financial institutions to manage assets and regulators to formulate policy. In today's society, there are problems of high error rate and low precision in financial market risk prediction, which greatly affect the accuracy of financial market risk prediction. K-means algorithm in machine learning is an effective risk prediction technique for financial market. This study uses K-means algorithm to develop a financial market risk prediction system, which significantly improves the accuracy and efficiency of financial market risk prediction. Ultimately, the outcomes of the experiments confirm that the K-means algorithm operates with user-friendly simplicity and achieves a 94.61% accuracy rate

The "massively-multilingual" training of multilingual models is known to limit their utility in any one language, and they perform particularly poorly on low-resource languages. However, there is evidence that low-resource languages can benefit from targeted multilinguality, where the model is trained on closely related languages. To test this approach more rigorously, we systematically study best practices for adapting a pre-trained model to a language family. Focusing on the Uralic family as a test case, we adapt XLM-R under various configurations to model 15 languages; we then evaluate the performance of each experimental setting on two downstream tasks and 11 evaluation languages. Our adapted models significantly outperform mono- and multilingual baselines. Furthermore, a regression analysis of hyperparameter effects reveals that adapted vocabulary size is relatively unimportant for low-resource languages, and that low-resource languages can be aggressively up-sampled during training at little detriment to performance in high-resource languages. These results introduce new best practices for performing language adaptation in a targeted setting.

Current graph clustering methods emphasize individual node and edge con nections, while ignoring higher-order organization at the level of motif. Re cently, higher-order graph clustering approaches have been designed by motif based hypergraphs. However, these approaches often suffer from hypergraph fragmentation issue seriously, which degrades the clustering performance greatly. Moreover, real-world graphs usually contain diverse motifs, with nodes participating in multiple motifs. A key challenge is how to achieve precise clustering results by integrating information from multiple motifs at the node level. In this paper, we propose a multi-order graph clustering model (MOGC) to integrate multiple higher-order structures and edge connections at node level. MOGC employs an adaptive weight learning mechanism to au tomatically adjust the contributions of different motifs for each node. This not only tackles hypergraph fragmentation issue but enhances clustering accuracy. MOGC is efficiently solved by an alternating minimization algo rithm. Experiments on seven real-world datasets illustrate the effectiveness of MOGC.

This study identifies a gap in data-driven approaches to robot-centric pedestrian interactions and proposes a corresponding pipeline. The pipeline utilizes unsupervised learning techniques to identify patterns in interaction data of urban environments, specifically focusing on conflict scenarios. Analyzed features include the robot's and pedestrian's speed and contextual parameters such as proximity to intersections. They are extracted and reduced in dimensionality using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally, K-means clustering is employed to uncover underlying patterns in the interaction data. A use case application of the pipeline is presented, utilizing real-world robot mission data from a mid-sized German city. The results indicate the need for enriching interaction representations with contextual information to enable fine-grained analysis and reasoning. Nevertheless, they also highlight the need for expanding the data set and incorporating additional contextual factors to enhance the robots situational awareness and interaction quality.