A set of high dimensional points $X=\{x_1, x_2,\ldots, x_n\} \subset R^d$ in isotropic position is said to be $\delta$-anti concentrated if for every direction $v$, the fraction of points in $X$ satisfying $|\langle x_i,v \rangle |\leq \delta$ is at most $O(\delta)$. Motivated by applications to list-decodable learning and clustering, recent works have considered the problem of constructing efficient certificates of anti-concentration in the average case, when the set of points $X$ corresponds to samples from a Gaussian distribution. Their certificates played a crucial role in several subsequent works in algorithmic robust statistics on list-decodable learning and settling the robust learnability of arbitrary Gaussian mixtures, yet remain limited to rotationally invariant distributions. This work presents a new (and arguably the most natural) formulation for anti-concentration. Using this formulation, we give quasi-polynomial time verifiable sum-of-squares certificates of anti-concentration that hold for a wide class of non-Gaussian distributions including anti-concentrated bounded product distributions and uniform distributions over $L_p$ balls (and their affine transformations). Consequently, our method upgrades and extends results in algorithmic robust statistics e.g., list-decodable learning and clustering, to such distributions. Our approach constructs a canonical integer program for anti-concentration and analysis a sum-of-squares relaxation of it, independent of the intended application. We rely on duality and analyze a pseudo-expectation on large subsets of the input points that take a small value in some direction. Our analysis uses the method of polynomial reweightings to reduce the problem to analyzing only analytically dense or sparse directions.

In numerous predictive scenarios, the predictive model affects the sampling distribution; for example, job applicants often meticulously craft their resumes to navigate through a screening systems. Such shifts in distribution are particularly prevalent in the realm of social computing, yet, the strategies to learn these shifts from data remain remarkably limited. Inspired by a microeconomic model that adeptly characterizes agents' behavior within labor markets, we introduce a novel approach to learn the distribution shift. Our method is predicated on a reverse causal model, wherein the predictive model instigates a distribution shift exclusively through a finite set of agents' actions. Within this framework, we employ a microfoundation model for the agents' actions and develop a statistically justified methodology to learn the distribution shift map, which we demonstrate to be effective in minimizing the performative prediction risk.

Analyzing high-dimensional count data is a challenge and statistical model-based approaches provide an adequate and efficient framework that preserves explainability. The (multivariate) Poisson-Log-Normal (PLN) model is one such model: it assumes count data are driven by an underlying structured latent Gaussian variable, so that the dependencies between counts solely stems from the latent dependencies. However PLN doesn't account for zero-inflation, a feature frequently observed in real-world datasets. Here we introduce the Zero-Inflated PLN (ZIPLN) model, adding a multivariate zero-inflated component to the model, as an additional Bernoulli latent variable. The Zero-Inflation can be fixed, site-specific, feature-specific or depends on covariates. We estimate model parameters using variational inference that scales up to datasets with a few thousands variables and compare two approximations: (i) independent Gaussian and Bernoulli variational distributions or (ii) Gaussian variational distribution conditioned on the Bernoulli one. The method is assessed on synthetic data and the efficiency of ZIPLN is established even when zero-inflation concerns up to $90\%$ of the observed counts. We then apply both ZIPLN and PLN to a cow microbiome dataset, containing $90.6\%$ of zeroes. Accounting for zero-inflation significantly increases log-likelihood and reduces dispersion in the latent space, thus leading to improved group discrimination.

We consider the three parameter solvable neural scaling model introduced by Maloney, Roberts, and Sully. The model has three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

Sufficient statistic perturbation (SSP) is a widely used method for differentially private linear regression. SSP adopts a data-independent approach where privacy noise from a simple distribution is added to sufficient statistics. However, sufficient statistics can often be expressed as linear queries and better approximated by data-dependent mechanisms. In this paper we introduce data-dependent SSP for linear regression based on post-processing privately released marginals, and find that it outperforms state-of-the-art data-independent SSP. We extend this result to logistic regression by developing an approximate objective that can be expressed in terms of sufficient statistics, resulting in a novel and highly competitive SSP approach for logistic regression. We also make a connection to synthetic data for machine learning: for models with sufficient statistics, training on synthetic data corresponds to data-dependent SSP, with the overall utility determined by how well the mechanism answers these linear queries.

The Intrinsic Dimension (ID) is a key concept in unsupervised learning and feature selection, as it is a lower bound to the number of variables which are necessary to describe a system. However, in almost any real-world dataset the ID depends on the scale at which the data are analysed. Quite typically at a small scale, the ID is very large, as the data are affected by measurement errors. At large scale, the ID can also be erroneously large, due to the curvature and the topology of the manifold containing the data. In this work, we introduce an automatic protocol to select the sweet spot, namely the correct range of scales in which the ID is meaningful and useful. This protocol is based on imposing that for distances smaller than the correct scale the density of the data is constant. Since to estimate the density it is necessary to know the ID, this condition is imposed self-consistently. We illustrate the usefulness and robustness of this procedure by benchmarks on artificial and real-world datasets.

Since the weak convergence for stochastic processes does not account for the growth of information over time which is represented by the underlying filtration, a slightly erroneous stochastic model in weak topology may cause huge loss in multi-periods decision making problems. To address such discontinuities Aldous introduced the extended weak convergence, which can fully characterise all essential properties, including the filtration, of stochastic processes; however was considered to be hard to find efficient numerical implementations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called High Rank PCF Distance (HRPCFD) for extended weak convergence based on the high rank path development method from rough path theory, which also defines the characteristic function for measure-valued processes. We then show that such HRPCFD admits many favourable analytic properties which allows us to design an efficient algorithm for training HRPCFD from data and construct the HRPCF-GAN by using HRPCFD as the discriminator for conditional time series generation. Our numerical experiments on both hypothesis testing and generative modelling validate the out-performance of our approach compared with several state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its potential in broad applications of synthetic time series generation and in addressing classic financial and economic challenges, such as optimal stopping or utility maximisation problems.

Concerns about the effect of greenhouse gases have motivated the development of certification protocols to quantify the industrial carbon footprint (CF). These protocols are manual, work-intensive, and expensive. All of the above have led to a shift towards automatic data-driven approaches to estimate the CF, including Machine Learning (ML) solutions. Unfortunately, the decision-making processes involved in these solutions lack transparency from the end user's point of view, who must blindly trust their outcomes compared to intelligible traditional manual approaches. In this research, manual and automatic methodologies for CF estimation were reviewed, taking into account their transparency limitations. This analysis led to the proposal of a new explainable ML solution for automatic CF calculations through bank transaction classification. Consideration should be given to the fact that no previous research has considered the explainability of bank transaction classification for this purpose. For classification, different ML models have been employed based on their promising performance in the literature, such as Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Recursive Neural Networks. The results obtained were in the 90 % range for accuracy, precision, and recall evaluation metrics. From their decision paths, the proposed solution estimates the CO2 emissions associated with bank transactions. The explainability methodology is based on an agnostic evaluation of the influence of the input terms extracted from the descriptions of transactions using locally interpretable models. The explainability terms were automatically validated using a similarity metric over the descriptions of the target categories. Conclusively, the explanation performance is satisfactory in terms of the proximity of the explanations to the associated activity sector descriptions.

Point Cloud Interpolation confronts challenges from point sparsity, complex spatiotemporal dynamics, and the difficulty of deriving complete 3D point clouds from sparse temporal information. This paper presents NeuroGauss4D-PCI, which excels at modeling complex non-rigid deformations across varied dynamic scenes. The method begins with an iterative Gaussian cloud soft clustering module, offering structured temporal point cloud representations. The proposed temporal radial basis function Gaussian residual utilizes Gaussian parameter interpolation over time, enabling smooth parameter transitions and capturing temporal residuals of Gaussian distributions. Additionally, a 4D Gaussian deformation field tracks the evolution of these parameters, creating continuous spatiotemporal deformation fields. A 4D neural field transforms low-dimensional spatiotemporal coordinates ($x,y,z,t$) into a high-dimensional latent space. Finally, we adaptively and efficiently fuse the latent features from neural fields and the geometric features from Gaussian deformation fields. NeuroGauss4D-PCI outperforms existing methods in point cloud frame interpolation, delivering leading performance on both object-level (DHB) and large-scale autonomous driving datasets (NL-Drive), with scalability to auto-labeling and point cloud densification tasks. The source code is released at https://github.com/jiangchaokang/NeuroGauss4D-PCI.

We propose a new framework for algorithmic stability in the context of multiclass classification. In practice, classification algorithms often operate by first assigning a continuous score (for instance, an estimated probability) to each possible label, then taking the maximizer -- i.e., selecting the class that has the highest score. A drawback of this type of approach is that it is inherently unstable, meaning that it is very sensitive to slight perturbations of the training data, since taking the maximizer is discontinuous. Motivated by this challenge, we propose a pipeline for constructing stable classifiers from data, using bagging (i.e., resampling and averaging) to produce stable continuous scores, and then using a stable relaxation of argmax, which we call the "inflated argmax," to convert these scores to a set of candidate labels. The resulting stability guarantee places no distributional assumptions on the data, does not depend on the number of classes or dimensionality of the covariates, and holds for any base classifier. Using a common benchmark data set, we demonstrate that the inflated argmax provides necessary protection against unstable classifiers, without loss of accuracy.