Trajectory prediction models that can infer both finite future trajectories and their associated uncertainties of the target vehicles in an online setting (e.g., real-world application scenarios) is crucial for ensuring the safe and robust navigation and path planning of autonomous vehicle motion. However, the majority of existing trajectory prediction models have neither considered reducing the uncertainty as one objective during the training stage nor provided reliable uncertainty quantification during inference stage under potential distribution shift. Therefore, in this paper, we propose the Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift framework, CUQDS, to quantify the uncertainty of the predicted trajectories of existing trajectory prediction models under potential data distribution shift, while considering improving the prediction accuracy of the models and reducing the estimated uncertainty during the training stage. Specifically, CUQDS includes 1) a learning-based Gaussian process regression module that models the output distribution of the base model (any existing trajectory prediction or time series forecasting neural networks) and reduces the estimated uncertainty by additional loss term, and 2) a statistical-based Conformal P control module to calibrate the estimated uncertainty from the Gaussian process regression module in an online setting under potential distribution shift between training and testing data.

Social media include diverse interaction metrics related to user popularity, the most evident example being the number of user followers. The latter has raised concerns about the credibility of the posts by the most popular creators. However, most existing approaches to assess credibility in social media strictly consider this problem a binary classification, often based on a priori information, without checking if actual real-world facts back the users' comments. In addition, they do not provide automatic explanations of their predictions to foster their trustworthiness. In this work, we propose a credibility assessment solution for financial creators in social media that combines Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning. The reputation of the contributors is assessed by automatically classifying their forecasts on asset values by type and verifying these predictions with actual market data to approximate their probability of success. The outcome of this verification is a continuous credibility score instead of a binary result, an entirely novel contribution by this work. Moreover, social media metrics (i.e., user context) are exploited by calculating their correlation with the credibility rankings, providing insights on the interest of the end-users in financial posts and their forecasts (i.e., drop or rise). Finally, the system provides natural language explanations of its decisions based on a model-agnostic analysis of relevant features.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at \href{https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/}{URL}.

Generating natural and meaningful responses to communicate with multi-modal human inputs is a fundamental capability of Large Vision-Language Models(LVLMs). While current open-source LVLMs demonstrate promising performance in simplified scenarios such as single-turn single-image input, they fall short in real-world conversation scenarios such as following instructions in a long context history with multi-turn and multi-images. Existing LVLM benchmarks primarily focus on single-choice questions or short-form responses, which do not adequately assess the capabilities of LVLMs in real-world human-AI interaction applications. Therefore, we introduce MMDU, a comprehensive benchmark, and MMDU-45k, a large-scale instruction tuning dataset, designed to evaluate and improve LVLMs' abilities in multi-turn and multi-image conversations. We employ the clustering algorithm to ffnd the relevant images and textual descriptions from the open-source Wikipedia and construct the question-answer pairs by human annotators with the assistance of the GPT-4o model. MMDU has a maximum of 18k image+text tokens, 20 images, and 27 turns, which is at least 5x longer than previous benchmarks and poses challenges to current LVLMs. Our in-depth analysis of 15 representative LVLMs using MMDU reveals that open-source LVLMs lag behind closed-source counterparts due to limited conversational instruction tuning data. We demonstrate that ffne-tuning open-source LVLMs on MMDU-45k signiffcantly address this gap, generating longer and more accurate conversations, and improving scores on MMDU and existing benchmarks (MMStar: +1.1%, MathVista: +1.5%, ChartQA:+1.2%). Our contributions pave the way for bridging the gap between current LVLM models and real-world application demands. This project is available at https://github.com/Liuziyu77/MMDU.

Accurate and transparent financial information disclosure is crucial in the fields of accounting and finance, ensuring market efficiency and investor confidence. Among many information disclosure platforms, the Chinese stock exchanges' investor interactive platform provides a novel and interactive way for listed firms to disclose information of interest to investors through an online question-and-answer (Q&A) format. However, it is common for listed firms to respond to questions with limited or no substantive information, and automatically evaluating the quality of financial information disclosure on large amounts of Q&A pairs is challenging. This paper builds a benchmark FinTruthQA, that can evaluate advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques for the automatic quality assessment of information disclosure in financial Q&A data. FinTruthQA comprises 6,000 real-world financial Q&A entries and each Q&A was manually annotated based on four conceptual dimensions of accounting. We benchmarked various NLP techniques on FinTruthQA, including statistical machine learning models, pre-trained language model and their fine-tuned versions, as well as the large language model GPT-4. Experiments showed that existing NLP models have strong predictive ability for real question identification and question relevance tasks, but are suboptimal for answer relevance and answer readability tasks. By establishing this benchmark, we provide a robust foundation for the automatic evaluation of information disclosure, significantly enhancing the transparency and quality of financial reporting. FinTruthQA can be used by auditors, regulators, and financial analysts for real-time monitoring and data-driven decision-making, as well as by researchers for advanced studies in accounting and finance, ultimately fostering greater trust and efficiency in the financial markets.

Without loss of generality, existing machine learning techniques may learn spurious correlation dependent on the domain, which exacerbates the generalization of models in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this issue, recent works build a structural causal model (SCM) to describe the causality within data generation process, thereby motivating methods to avoid the learning of spurious correlation by models. However, from the machine learning viewpoint, such a theoretical analysis omits the nuanced difference between the data generation process and representation learning process, resulting in that the causal analysis based on the former cannot well adapt to the latter. To this end, we explore to build a SCM for representation learning process and further conduct a thorough analysis of the mechanisms underlying spurious correlation. We underscore that adjusting erroneous covariates introduces bias, thus necessitating the correct selection of spurious correlation mechanisms based on practical application scenarios. In this regard, we substantiate the correctness of the proposed SCM and further propose to control confounding bias in OOD generalization by introducing a propensity score weighted estimator, which can be integrated into any existing OOD method as a plug-and-play module. The empirical results comprehensively demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on synthetic and large-scale real OOD datasets.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown impressive performance in graph representation learning, but they face challenges in capturing long-range dependencies due to their limited expressive power. To address this, Graph Transformers (GTs) were introduced, utilizing self-attention mechanism to effectively model pairwise node relationships. Despite their advantages, GTs suffer from quadratic complexity w.r.t. the number of nodes in the graph, hindering their applicability to large graphs. In this work, we present Graph-Enhanced Contextual Operator (GECO), a scalable and effective alternative to GTs that leverages neighborhood propagation and global convolutions to effectively capture local and global dependencies in quasilinear time. Our study on synthetic datasets reveals that GECO reaches 169x speedup on a graph with 2M nodes w.r.t. optimized attention. Further evaluations on diverse range of benchmarks showcase that GECO scales to large graphs where traditional GTs often face memory and time limitations. Notably, GECO consistently achieves comparable or superior quality compared to baselines, improving the SOTA up to 4.5%, and offering a scalable and effective solution for large-scale graph learning.

Semantic and syntactic bootstrapping posit that children use their prior knowledge of one linguistic domain, say syntactic relations, to help later acquire another, such as the meanings of new words. Empirical results supporting both theories may tempt us to believe that these are different learning strategies, where one may precede the other. Here, we argue that they are instead both contingent on a more general learning strategy for language acquisition: joint learning. Using a series of neural visually-grounded grammar induction models, we demonstrate that both syntactic and semantic bootstrapping effects are strongest when syntax and semantics are learnt simultaneously. Joint learning results in better grammar induction, realistic lexical category learning, and better interpretations of novel sentence and verb meanings. Joint learning makes language acquisition easier for learners by mutually constraining the hypotheses spaces for both syntax and semantics. Studying the dynamics of joint inference over many input sources and modalities represents an important new direction for language modeling and learning research in both cognitive sciences and AI, as it may help us explain how language can be acquired in more constrained learning settings.

In-context learning is a key paradigm in large language models (LLMs) that enables them to generalize to new tasks and domains by simply prompting these models with a few exemplars without explicit parameter updates. Many attempts have been made to understand in-context learning in LLMs as a function of model scale, pretraining data, and other factors. In this work, we propose a new mechanism to probe and understand in-context learning from the lens of decision boundaries for in-context binary classification. Decision boundaries are straightforward to visualize and provide important information about the qualitative behavior of the inductive biases of standard classifiers. To our surprise, we find that the decision boundaries learned by current LLMs in simple binary classification tasks are often irregular and non-smooth, regardless of linear separability in the underlying task. This paper investigates the factors influencing these decision boundaries and explores methods to enhance their generalizability. We assess various approaches, including training-free and fine-tuning methods for LLMs, the impact of model architecture, and the effectiveness of active prompting techniques for smoothing decision boundaries in a data-efficient manner. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of in-context learning dynamics and offer practical improvements for enhancing robustness and generalizability of in-context learning.

This paper presents an experiment conducted during a hackathon, focusing on using large language models (LLMs) and knowledge graph clustering to extract entities and relationships from astronomical text. The study demonstrates an approach to disambiguate entities that can appear in various contexts within the astronomical domain. By collecting excerpts around specific entities and leveraging the GPT-4 language model, relevant entities and relationships are extracted. The extracted information is then used to construct a knowledge graph, which is clustered using the Leiden algorithm. The resulting Leiden communities are utilized to identify the percentage of association of unknown excerpts to each community, thereby enabling disambiguation. The experiment showcases the potential of combining LLMs and knowledge graph clustering techniques for information extraction in astronomical research. The results highlight the effectiveness of the approach in identifying and disambiguating entities, as well as grouping them into meaningful clusters based on their relationships.