Statistical Learning
Gradual Divergence for Seamless Adaptation: A Novel Domain Incremental Learning Method
Jeeveswaran, Kishaan, Arani, Elahe, Zonooz, Bahram
Domain incremental learning (DIL) poses a significant challenge in real-world scenarios, as models need to be sequentially trained on diverse domains over time, all the while avoiding catastrophic forgetting. Mitigating representation drift, which refers to the phenomenon of learned representations undergoing changes as the model adapts to new tasks, can help alleviate catastrophic forgetting. In this study, we propose a novel DIL method named DARE, featuring a three-stage training process: Divergence, Adaptation, and REfinement. This process gradually adapts the representations associated with new tasks into the feature space spanned by samples from previous tasks, simultaneously integrating task-specific decision boundaries. Additionally, we introduce a novel strategy for buffer sampling and demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, combined with this sampling strategy, in reducing representation drift within the feature encoder. This contribution effectively alleviates catastrophic forgetting across multiple DIL benchmarks. Furthermore, our approach prevents sudden representation drift at task boundaries, resulting in a well-calibrated DIL model that maintains the performance on previous tasks.
F-FOMAML: GNN-Enhanced Meta-Learning for Peak Period Demand Forecasting with Proxy Data
Xu, Zexing, Zhang, Linjun, Yang, Sitan, Etesami, Rasoul, Tong, Hanghang, Zhang, Huan, Han, Jiawei
Demand prediction is a crucial task for e-commerce and physical retail businesses, especially during high-stake sales events. However, the limited availability of historical data from these peak periods poses a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages strategically chosen proxy data reflective of potential sales patterns from similar entities during non-peak periods, enriched by features learned from a graph neural networks (GNNs)-based forecasting model, to predict demand during peak events. We formulate the demand prediction as a meta-learning problem and develop the Feature-based First-Order Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (F-FOMAML) algorithm that leverages proxy data from non-peak periods and GNN-generated relational metadata to learn feature-specific layer parameters, thereby adapting to demand forecasts for peak events. Theoretically, we show that by considering domain similarities through task-specific metadata, our model achieves improved generalization, where the excess risk decreases as the number of training tasks increases. Empirical evaluations on large-scale industrial datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach. Compared to existing state-of-the-art models, our method demonstrates a notable improvement in demand prediction accuracy, reducing the Mean Absolute Error by 26.24% on an internal vending machine dataset and by 1.04% on the publicly accessible JD.com dataset.
Utilizing Graph Generation for Enhanced Domain Adaptive Object Detection
The problem of Domain Adaptive in the field of Object Detection involves the transfer of object detection models from labeled source domains to unannotated target domains. Recent advancements in this field aim to address domain discrepancies by aligning pixel-pairs across domains within a non-Euclidean graphical space, thereby minimizing semantic distribution variance. Despite their remarkable achievements, these methods often use coarse semantic representations to model graphs, mainly due to ignoring non-informative elements and failing to focus on precise semantic alignment. Additionally, the generation of coarse graphs inherently introduces abnormal nodes, posing challenges and potentially biasing domain adaptation outcomes. Consequently, we propose a framework, which utilizes the Graph Generation to enhance the quality of DAOD (\method{}). Specifically, we introduce a Node Refinement module that utilizes a memory bank to reconstruct noisy sampled nodes while applying contrastive regularization to noisy features. To enhance semantic alignment, we propose separating domain-specific styles from category invariance encoded within graph covariances, which allows us to selectively remove domain-specific styles while preserving category-invariant information, thus facilitating more accurate semantic alignment across different domains. Furthermore, we propose a Graph Optimization adaptor, leveraging variational inference to mitigate the impact of abnormal nodes. Extensive experimentation across three adaptation benchmarks validates that \method{} achieves state-of-the-art performance in the task of unsupervised domain adaptation.
Classification Under Strategic Self-Selection
Horowitz, Guy, Sommer, Yonatan, Koren, Moran, Rosenfeld, Nir
When users stand to gain from certain predictive outcomes, they are prone to act strategically to In this work we study classification of strategic agents that obtain predictions that are favorable. Most current choose whether to apply or not in response to the learned works consider strategic behavior that manifests classifier. Strategic candidates apply only if the expected as users modifying their features; instead, we utility from passing screening outweighs associated costs; study a novel setting in which users decide thus, application choices derive from beliefs regarding classification whether to even participate (or not), this in response outcomes. Since these choices in aggregate determine to the learned classifier. Considering learning the test-time distribution, learning becomes susceptible approaches of increasing strategic awareness, to self-selection--namely selection that is carried out by the we investigate the effects of user self-selection agents which predictions target. Our goal in this paper is to on learning, and the implications of learning on study learning under such self-selective behavior, which we the composition of the self-selected population.
Combine and Conquer: A Meta-Analysis on Data Shift and Out-of-Distribution Detection
Dadalto, Eduardo, Alberge, Florence, Duhamel, Pierre, Piantanida, Pablo
This paper introduces a universal approach to seamlessly combine out-of-distribution (OOD) detection scores. These scores encompass a wide range of techniques that leverage the self-confidence of deep learning models and the anomalous behavior of features in the latent space. Not surprisingly, combining such a varied population using simple statistics proves inadequate. To overcome this challenge, we propose a quantile normalization to map these scores into p-values, effectively framing the problem into a multi-variate hypothesis test. Then, we combine these tests using established meta-analysis tools, resulting in a more effective detector with consolidated decision boundaries. Furthermore, we create a probabilistic interpretable criterion by mapping the final statistics into a distribution with known parameters. Through empirical investigation, we explore different types of shifts, each exerting varying degrees of impact on data. Our results demonstrate that our approach significantly improves overall robustness and performance across diverse OOD detection scenarios. Notably, our framework is easily extensible for future developments in detection scores and stands as the first to combine decision boundaries in this context. The code and artifacts associated with this work are publicly available\footnote{\url{https://github.com/edadaltocg/detectors}}.
Reinterpreting Economic Complexity: A co-clustering approach
Bottai, Carlo, Di Iorio, Jacopo, Iori, Martina
The Economic and Product Complexity Indices, introduced as an attempt to measure these capabilities from a country's basket of exported products, have become popular to study economic development, the geography of innovation, and industrial policies. Despite this reception, the interpretation of these indicators proved difficult. Although the original Method of Reflections suggested a direct interconnection between country and product metrics, it has been proved that the Economic and Product Complexity Indices result from a spectral clustering algorithm that separately groups similar countries or similar products, respectively. This recent approach to economic and product complexity conflicts with the original one and treats separately countries and products. However, building on previous interpretations of the indices and the recent evolution in spectral clustering, we show that these indices simultaneously identify two co-clusters of similar countries and products. This viewpoint reconciles the spectral clustering interpretation of the indices with the original Method of Reflections interpretation. By proving the often neglected intimate relationship between country and product complexity, this approach emphasizes the role of a selected set of products in determining economic development while extending the range of applications of these indicators in economics.
Effect of Random Learning Rate: Theoretical Analysis of SGD Dynamics in Non-Convex Optimization via Stationary Distribution
Yoshida, Naoki, Nakakita, Shogo, Imaizumi, Masaaki
We consider a variant of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a random learning rate and reveal its convergence properties. SGD is a widely used stochastic optimization algorithm in machine learning, especially deep learning. Numerous studies reveal the convergence properties of SGD and its simplified variants. Among these, the analysis of convergence using a stationary distribution of updated parameters provides generalizable results. However, to obtain a stationary distribution, the update direction of the parameters must not degenerate, which limits the applicable variants of SGD. In this study, we consider a novel SGD variant, Poisson SGD, which has degenerated parameter update directions and instead utilizes a random learning rate. Consequently, we demonstrate that a distribution of a parameter updated by Poisson SGD converges to a stationary distribution under weak assumptions on a loss function. Based on this, we further show that Poisson SGD finds global minima in non-convex optimization problems and also evaluate the generalization error using this method. As a proof technique, we approximate the distribution by Poisson SGD with that of the bouncy particle sampler (BPS) and derive its stationary distribution, using the theoretical advance of the piece-wise deterministic Markov process (PDMP).
VICatMix: variational Bayesian clustering and variable selection for discrete biomedical data
Effective clustering of biomedical data is crucial in precision medicine, enabling accurate stratifiction of patients or samples. However, the growth in availability of high-dimensional categorical data, including `omics data, necessitates computationally efficient clustering algorithms. We present VICatMix, a variational Bayesian finite mixture model designed for the clustering of categorical data. The use of variational inference (VI) in its training allows the model to outperform competitors in term of efficiency, while maintaining high accuracy. VICatMix furthermore performs variable selection, enhancing its performance on high-dimensional, noisy data. The proposed model incorporates summarisation and model averaging to mitigate poor local optima in VI, allowing for improved estimation of the true number of clusters simultaneously with feature saliency. We demonstrate the performance of VICatMix with both simulated and real-world data, including applications to datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), showing its use in cancer subtyping and driver gene discovery. We demonstrate VICatMix's utility in integrative cluster analysis with different `omics datasets, enabling the discovery of novel subtypes. \textbf{Availability:} VICatMix is freely available as an R package, incorporating C++ for faster computation, at \url{https://github.com/j-ackierao/VICatMix}.
Zero-Inflated Tweedie Boosted Trees with CatBoost for Insurance Loss Analytics
So, Banghee, Valdez, Emiliano A.
In this paper, we explore advanced modifications to the Tweedie regression model in order to address its limitations in modeling aggregate claims for various types of insurance such as automobile, health, and liability. Traditional Tweedie models, while effective in capturing the probability and magnitude of claims, usually fall short in accurately representing the large incidence of zero claims. Our recommended approach involves a refined modeling of the zero-claim process, together with the integration of boosting methods in order to help leverage an iterative process to enhance predictive accuracy. Despite the inherent slowdown in learning algorithms due to this iteration, several efficient implementation techniques that also help precise tuning of parameter like XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost have emerged. Nonetheless, we chose to utilize CatBoost, a efficient boosting approach that effectively handles categorical and other special types of data. The core contribution of our paper is the assembly of separate modeling for zero claims and the application of tree-based boosting ensemble methods within a CatBoost framework, assuming that the inflated probability of zero is a function of the mean parameter. The efficacy of our enhanced Tweedie model is demonstrated through the application of an insurance telematics dataset, which presents the additional complexity of compositional feature variables. Our modeling results reveal a marked improvement in model performance, showcasing its potential to deliver more accurate predictions suitable for insurance claim analytics.
AI-Driven Approaches for Optimizing Power Consumption: A Comprehensive Survey
Biswas, Parag, Rashid, Abdur, Biswas, Angona, Nasim, Md Abdullah Al, Gupta, Kishor Datta, George, Roy
Reduced environmental effect, lower operating costs, and a stable and sustainable energy supply for current and future generations are the main reasons why power optimization is important. Power optimization makes ensuring that energy is used more effectively, cutting down on waste and optimizing the utilization of resources.In today's world, power optimization and artificial intelligence (AI) integration are essential to changing the way energy is produced, used, and distributed. Real-time monitoring and analysis of power usage trends is made possible by AI-driven algorithms and predictive analytics, which enable dynamic modifications to effectively satisfy demand. Efficiency and sustainability are increased when power consumption is optimized in different sectors thanks to the use of intelligent systems. This survey paper comprises an extensive review of the several AI techniques used for power optimization as well as a methodical analysis of the literature for the study of various intelligent system application domains across different disciplines of power consumption.This literature review identifies the performance and outcomes of 17 different research methods by assessing them, and it aims to distill valuable insights into their strengths and limitations. Furthermore, this article outlines future directions in the integration of AI for power consumption optimization.