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 Statistical Learning


Convergence rates of stochastic gradient method with independent sequences of step-size and momentum weight

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In large-scale learning algorithms, the momentum term is usually included in the stochastic sub-gradient method to improve the learning speed because it can navigate ravines efficiently to reach a local minimum. However, step-size and momentum weight hyper-parameters must be appropriately tuned to optimize convergence. We thus analyze the convergence rate using stochastic programming with Polyak's acceleration of two commonly used step-size learning rates: ``diminishing-to-zero" and ``constant-and-drop" (where the sequence is divided into stages and a constant step-size is applied at each stage) under strongly convex functions over a compact convex set with bounded sub-gradients. For the former, we show that the convergence rate can be written as a product of exponential in step-size and polynomial in momentum weight. Our analysis justifies the convergence of using the default momentum weight setting and the diminishing-to-zero step-size sequence in large-scale machine learning software. For the latter, we present the condition for the momentum weight sequence to converge at each stage.


Improving Machine Learning Based Sepsis Diagnosis Using Heart Rate Variability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The early and accurate diagnosis of sepsis is critical for enhancing patient outcomes. This study aims to use heart rate variability (HRV) features to develop an effective predictive model for sepsis detection. Critical HRV features are identified through feature engineering methods, including statistical bootstrapping and the Boruta algorithm, after which XGBoost and Random Forest classifiers are trained with differential hyperparameter settings. In addition, ensemble models are constructed to pool the prediction probabilities of high-recall and high-precision classifiers and improve model performance. Finally, a neural network model is trained on the HRV features, achieving an F1 score of 0.805, a precision of 0.851, and a recall of 0.763. The best-performing machine learning model is compared to this neural network through an interpretability analysis, where Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations are implemented to determine decision-making criterion based on numerical ranges and thresholds for specific features. This study not only highlights the efficacy of HRV in automated sepsis diagnosis but also increases the transparency of black box outputs, maximizing clinical applicability.


Optimizing Disease Prediction with Artificial Intelligence Driven Feature Selection and Attention Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid integration of machine learning methodologies in healthcare has ignited innovative strategies for disease prediction, particularly with the vast repositories of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data. This article delves into the realm of multi-disease prediction, presenting a comprehensive study that introduces a pioneering ensemble feature selection model. This model, designed to optimize learning systems, combines statistical, deep, and optimally selected features through the innovative Stabilized Energy Valley Optimization with Enhanced Bounds (SEV-EB) algorithm. The objective is to achieve unparalleled accuracy and stability in predicting various disorders. This work proposes an advanced ensemble model that synergistically integrates statistical, deep, and optimally selected features. This combination aims to enhance the predictive power of the model by capturing diverse aspects of the health data. At the heart of the proposed model lies the SEV-EB algorithm, a novel approach to optimal feature selection. The algorithm introduces enhanced bounds and stabilization techniques, contributing to the robustness and accuracy of the overall prediction model. To further elevate the predictive capabilities, an HSC-AttentionNet is introduced. This network architecture combines deep temporal convolution capabilities with LSTM, allowing the model to capture both short-term patterns and long-term dependencies in health data. Rigorous evaluations showcase the remarkable performance of the proposed model. Achieving a 95% accuracy and 94% F1-score in predicting various disorders, the model surpasses traditional methods, signifying a significant advancement in disease prediction accuracy. The implications of this research extend beyond the confines of academia.


Pedestrian Inertial Navigation: An Overview of Model and Data-Driven Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The task of indoor positioning is fundamental to several applications, including navigation, healthcare, location-based services, and security. An emerging field is inertial navigation for pedestrians, which relies only on inertial sensors for positioning. In this paper, we present inertial pedestrian navigation models and learning approaches. Among these, are methods and algorithms for shoe-mounted inertial sensors and pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) with unconstrained inertial sensors. We also address three categories of data-driven PDR strategies: activity-assisted, hybrid approaches, and learning-based frameworks.


UnPaSt: unsupervised patient stratification by differentially expressed biclusters in omics data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most complex diseases, including cancer and non-malignant diseases like asthma, have distinct molecular subtypes that require distinct clinical approaches. However, existing computational patient stratification methods have been benchmarked almost exclusively on cancer omics data and only perform well when mutually exclusive subtypes can be characterized by many biomarkers. Here, we contribute with a massive evaluation attempt, quantitatively exploring the power of 22 unsupervised patient stratification methods using both, simulated and real transcriptome data. From this experience, we developed UnPaSt (https://apps.cosy.bio/unpast/) optimizing unsupervised patient stratification, working even with only a limited number of subtype-predictive biomarkers. We evaluated all 23 methods on real-world breast cancer and asthma transcriptomics data. Although many methods reliably detected major breast cancer subtypes, only few identified Th2-high asthma, and UnPaSt significantly outperformed its closest competitors in both test datasets. Essentially, we showed that UnPaSt can detect many biologically insightful and reproducible patterns in omic datasets.


Measuring What Matters: Intrinsic Distance Preservation as a Robust Metric for Embedding Quality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unsupervised embeddings are fundamental to numerous machine learning applications, yet their evaluation remains a challenging task. Traditional assessment methods often rely on extrinsic variables, such as performance in downstream tasks, which can introduce confounding factors and mask the true quality of embeddings. This paper introduces the Intrinsic Distance Preservation Evaluation (IDPE) method, a novel approach for assessing embedding quality based on the preservation of Mahalanobis distances between data points in the original and embedded spaces. We demonstrate the limitations of extrinsic evaluation methods through a simple example, highlighting how they can lead to misleading conclusions about embedding quality. IDPE addresses these issues by providing a task-independent measure of how well embeddings preserve the intrinsic structure of the original data. Our method leverages efficient similarity search techniques to make it applicable to large-scale datasets. We compare IDPE with established intrinsic metrics like trustworthiness and continuity, as well as extrinsic metrics such as Average Rank and Mean Reciprocal Rank. Our results show that IDPE offers a more comprehensive and reliable assessment of embedding quality across various scenarios. We evaluate PCA and t-SNE embeddings using IDPE, revealing insights into their performance that are not captured by traditional metrics. This work contributes to the field by providing a robust, efficient, and interpretable method for embedding evaluation. IDPE's focus on intrinsic properties offers a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners seeking to develop and assess high-quality embeddings for diverse machine learning applications.


An Extended Kalman Filter Integrated Latent Feature Model on Dynamic Weighted Directed Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A dynamic weighted directed graph (DWDG) is commonly encountered in various application scenarios. It involves extensive dynamic interactions among numerous nodes. Most existing approaches explore the intricate temporal patterns hidden in a DWDG from the purely data-driven perspective, which suffers from accuracy loss when a DWDG exhibits strong fluctuations over time. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel Extended-Kalman-Filter-Incorporated Latent Feature (EKLF) model to represent a DWDG from the model-driven perspective. Its main idea is divided into the following two-fold ideas: a) adopting a control model, i.e., the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), to track the complex temporal patterns precisely with its nonlinear state-transition and observation functions; and b) introducing an alternating least squares (ALS) algorithm to train the latent features (LFs) alternatively for precisely representing a DWDG. Empirical studies on DWDG datasets demonstrate that the proposed EKLF model outperforms state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency for missing edge weights of a DWDG. It unveils the potential for precisely representing a DWDG by incorporating a control model.


Distributionally Robust Optimization as a Scalable Framework to Characterize Extreme Value Distributions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions built from spatial Poisson point processes. While powerful, these models are only asymptotically valid for large samples. However, since extreme data is by definition scarce, the potential for model misspecification error is inherent to these applications, thus DRO estimators are natural. In order to mitigate over-conservative estimates while enhancing out-of-sample performance, we study DRO estimators informed by semi-parametric max-stable constraints in the space of point processes. We study both tractable convex formulations for some problems of interest (e.g. CVaR) and more general neural network based estimators. Both approaches are validated using synthetically generated data, recovering prescribed characteristics, and verifying the efficacy of the proposed techniques. Additionally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set of financial returns for comparison to a previous analysis. We established the proposed model as a novel formulation in the multivariate EVT domain, and innovative with respect to performance when compared to relevant alternate proposals.


Areas of Improvement for Autonomous Vehicles: A Machine Learning Analysis of Disengagement Reports

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Since 2014, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (CDMV) has compiled information from manufacturers of autonomous vehicles (AVs) regarding factors that lead to the disengagement from autonomous driving mode in these vehicles. These disengagement reports (DRs) contain information detailing whether the AV disengaged from autonomous mode due to technology failure, manual override, or other factors during driving tests. This paper presents a machine learning (ML) based analysis of the information from the 2023 DRs. We use a natural language processing (NLP) approach to extract important information from the description of a disengagement, and use the k-Means clustering algorithm to group report entries together. The cluster frequency is then analyzed, and each cluster is manually categorized based on the factors leading to disengagement. We discuss findings from previous years' DRs, and provide our own analysis to identify areas of improvement for AVs.


Deep Fr\'echet Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advancements in modern science have led to the increasing availability of non-Euclidean data in metric spaces. This paper addresses the challenge of modeling relationships between non-Euclidean responses and multivariate Euclidean predictors. We propose a flexible regression model capable of handling high-dimensional predictors without imposing parametric assumptions. Two primary challenges are addressed: the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric regression and the absence of linear structure in general metric spaces. The former is tackled using deep neural networks, while for the latter we demonstrate the feasibility of mapping the metric space where responses reside to a low-dimensional Euclidean space using manifold learning. We introduce a reverse mapping approach, employing local Fr\'echet regression, to map the low-dimensional manifold representations back to objects in the original metric space. We develop a theoretical framework, investigating the convergence rate of deep neural networks under dependent sub-Gaussian noise with bias. The convergence rate of the proposed regression model is then obtained by expanding the scope of local Fr\'echet regression to accommodate multivariate predictors in the presence of errors in predictors. Simulations and case studies show that the proposed model outperforms existing methods for non-Euclidean responses, focusing on the special cases of probability measures and networks.