Understanding how people behave in strategic settings--where they make decisions based on their expectations about the behavior of others--is a long-standing problem in the behavioral sciences. We conduct the largest study to date of strategic decision-making in the context of initial play in two-player matrix games, analyzing over 90,000 human decisions across more than 2,400 procedurally generated games that span a much wider space than previous datasets. We show that a deep neural network trained on these data predicts people's choices better than leading theories of strategic behavior, indicating that there is systematic variation that is not explained by those theories. We then modify the network to produce a new, interpretable behavioral model, revealing what the original network learned about people: their ability to optimally respond and their capacity to reason about others are dependent on the complexity of individual games. This context-dependence is critical in explaining deviations from the rational Nash equilibrium, response times, and uncertainty in strategic decisions. More broadly, our results demonstrate how machine learning can be applied beyond prediction to further help generate novel explanations of complex human behavior.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have exhibited remarkable efficacy in learning from multi-view graph data. In the framework of multi-view graph neural networks, a critical challenge lies in effectively combining diverse views, where each view has distinct graph structure features (GSFs). Existing approaches to this challenge primarily focus on two aspects: 1) prioritizing the most important GSFs, 2) utilizing GNNs for feature aggregation. However, prioritizing the most important GSFs can lead to limited feature diversity, and existing GNN-based aggregation strategies equally treat each view without considering view quality. To address these issues, we propose a novel Multi-View Graph Neural Network with Reliable Structural Enhancement and Aggregation (RSEA-MVGNN). Firstly, we estimate view-specific uncertainty employing subjective logic. Based on this uncertainty, we design reliable structural enhancement by feature de-correlation algorithm. This approach enables each enhancement to focus on different GSFs, thereby achieving diverse feature representation in the enhanced structure. Secondly, the model learns view-specific beliefs and uncertainty as opinions, which are utilized to evaluate view quality. Based on these opinions, the model enables high-quality views to dominate GNN aggregation, thereby facilitating representation learning. Experimental results conducted on five real-world datasets demonstrate that RSEA-MVGNN outperforms several state-of-the-art GNN-based methods.

A good understanding of player preferences is crucial for increasing content relevancy, especially in mobile games. This paper illustrates the use of attentive models for producing item recommendations in a mobile game scenario. The methodology comprises a combination of supervised and unsupervised approaches to create user-level recommendations while introducing a novel scale-invariant approach to the prediction. The methodology is subsequently applied to a bundle recommendation in Candy Crush Saga. The strategy of deployment, maintenance, and monitoring of ML models that are scaled up to serve millions of users is presented, along with the best practices and design patterns adopted to minimize technical debt typical of ML systems. The recommendation approach is evaluated both offline and online, with a focus on understanding the increase in engagement, click- and take rates, novelty effects, recommendation diversity, and the impact of degenerate feedback loops. We have demonstrated that the recommendation enhances user engagement by 30% concerning click rate and by more than 40% concerning take rate. In addition, we empirically quantify the diminishing effects of recommendation accuracy on user engagement.

Language models have achieved remarkable success in various natural language processing tasks. However, their application to time series data, a crucial component in many domains, remains limited. This paper proposes LiPCoT (Linear Predictive Coding based Tokenizer for time series), a novel tokenizer that encodes time series data into a sequence of tokens, enabling self-supervised learning of time series using existing Language model architectures such as BERT. Unlike traditional time series tokenizers that rely heavily on CNN encoder for time series feature generation, LiPCoT employs stochastic modeling through linear predictive coding to create a latent space for time series providing a compact yet rich representation of the inherent stochastic nature of the data. Furthermore, LiPCoT is computationally efficient and can effectively handle time series data with varying sampling rates and lengths, overcoming common limitations of existing time series tokenizers. In this proof-of-concept work, we present the effectiveness of LiPCoT in classifying Parkinson's disease (PD) using an EEG dataset from 46 participants. In particular, we utilize LiPCoT to encode EEG data into a small vocabulary of tokens and then use BERT for self-supervised learning and the downstream task of PD classification. We benchmark our approach against several state-of-the-art CNN-based deep learning architectures for PD detection. Our results reveal that BERT models utilizing self-supervised learning outperformed the best-performing existing method by 7.1% in precision, 2.3% in recall, 5.5% in accuracy, 4% in AUC, and 5% in F1-score highlighting the potential for self-supervised learning even on small datasets. Our work will inform future foundational models for time series, particularly for self-supervised learning.

Formal languages are essential for computer programming and are constructed to be easily processed by computers. In contrast, natural languages are much more challenging and instigated the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP). One major obstacle is the ubiquity of ambiguities. Recent advances in NLP have led to the development of large language models, which can resolve ambiguities with high accuracy. At the same time, quantum computers have gained much attention in recent years as they can solve some computational problems faster than classical computers. This new computing paradigm has reached the fields of machine learning and NLP, where hybrid classical-quantum learning algorithms have emerged. However, more research is needed to identify which NLP tasks could benefit from a genuine quantum advantage. In this thesis, we applied formalisms arising from foundational quantum mechanics, such as contextuality and causality, to study ambiguities arising from linguistics. By doing so, we also reproduced psycholinguistic results relating to the human disambiguation process. These results were subsequently used to predict human behaviour and outperformed current NLP methods.

Many important managerial decisions are made based on censored observations. Making decisions without adequately handling the censoring leads to inferior outcomes. We investigate the data-driven decision-making problem with an offline dataset containing the feature data and the censored historical data of the variable of interest without the censoring indicators. Without assuming the underlying distribution, we design and leverage {\epsilon}-insensitive operational costs to deal with the unobserved censoring in an offline data-driven fashion. We demonstrate the customization of the {\epsilon}-insensitive operational costs for a newsvendor problem and use such costs to train two representative ML models, including linear regression (LR) models and neural networks (NNs). We derive tight generalization bounds for the custom LR model without regularization (LR-{\epsilon}NVC) and with regularization (LR-{\epsilon}NVC-R), and a high-probability generalization bound for the custom NN (NN-{\epsilon}NVC) trained by stochastic gradient descent. The theoretical results reveal the stability and learnability of LR-{\epsilon}NVC, LR-{\epsilon}NVC-R and NN-{\epsilon}NVC. We conduct extensive numerical experiments to compare LR-{\epsilon}NVC-R and NN-{\epsilon}NVC with two existing approaches, estimate-as-solution (EAS) and integrated estimation and optimization (IEO). The results show that LR-{\epsilon}NVC-R and NN-{\epsilon}NVC outperform both EAS and IEO, with maximum cost savings up to 14.40% and 12.21% compared to the lowest cost generated by the two existing approaches. In addition, LR-{\epsilon}NVC-R's and NN-{\epsilon}NVC's order quantities are statistically significantly closer to the optimal solutions should the underlying distribution be known.

ABSTRACT The First-Mile Last-Mile (FMLM) connectivity is crucial for improving public transit accessibility and efficiency, particularly in sprawling suburban regions where traditional fixed-route transit systems are often inadequate. Autonomous on-Demand Shuttles (AODS) hold a promising option for FMLM connections due to their cost-effectiveness and improved safety features, thereby enhancing user convenience and reducing reliance on personal vehicles. A critical issue in AODS service design is the optimization of travel paths, for which realistic traffic network assignment combined with optimal routing offers a viable solution. In this study, we have designed an AODS controller that integrates a mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment model with a greedy insertion heuristics approach to optimize the travel routes of the shuttles. The controller also considers the charging infrastructure/strategies and the impact of the shuttles on regular traffic flow for routes and fleet-size planning. The controller is implemented in Aimsun traffic simulator considering Lake Nona in Orlando, Florida as a case study. We show that, under the present demand based on 1% of total trips as transit riders, a fleet of 3 autonomous shuttles can serve about 80% of FMLM trip requests on-demand basis with an average waiting time below 4 minutes. Additional power sources have significant effect on service quality as the inactive waiting time for charging would increase the fleet size. We also show that low-speed autonomous shuttles would have negligible impact on regular vehicle flow, making them suitable for suburban areas. These findings have important implications for sustainable urban planning and public transit operations. INTRODUCTION High population and economic growths in the urban regions of the USA are leading to increased traffic congestion, environmental impacts, and crashes. To reduce traffic congestion and associated problems, it is important to increase the use of public transit services which constitute about 1% of the mode share in the USA (1).

Hyperspectral unmixing is the process of determining the presence of individual materials and their respective abundances from an observed pixel spectrum. Unmixing is a fundamental process in hyperspectral image analysis, and is growing in importance as increasingly large spectral libraries are created and used. Unmixing is typically done with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. However, unmixing with large spectral libraries where the materials present in a pixel are not a priori known, solving for the coefficients in OLS requires inverting a non-invertible matrix from a large spectral library. A number of regression methods are available that can produce a numerical solution using regularization, but with considerably varied effectiveness. Also, simple methods that are unpopular in the statistics literature (i.e. step-wise regression) are used with some level of effectiveness in hyperspectral analysis. In this paper, we provide a thorough performance evaluation of the methods considered, evaluating methods based on how often they select the correct materials in the models. Investigated methods include ordinary least squares regression, non-negative least squares regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, step-wise regression and Bayesian model averaging. We evaluated these unmixing approaches using multiple criteria: incorporation of non-negative abundances, model size, accurate mineral detection and root mean squared error (RMSE). We provide a taxonomy of the regression methods, showing that most methods can be understood as Bayesian methods with specific priors. We conclude that methods that can be derived with priors that correspond to the phenomenology of hyperspectral imagery outperform those with priors that are optimal for prediction performance under the assumptions of ordinary least squares linear regression.

Voice signals originating from the respiratory tract are utilized as valuable acoustic biomarkers for the diagnosis and assessment of respiratory diseases. Among the employed acoustic features, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) is widely used for automatic analysis, with MFCC extraction commonly relying on default parameters. However, no comprehensive study has systematically investigated the impact of MFCC extraction parameters on respiratory disease diagnosis. In this study, we address this gap by examining the effects of key parameters, namely the number of coefficients, frame length, and hop length between frames, on respiratory condition examination. Our investigation uses four datasets: the Cambridge COVID-19 Sound database, the Coswara dataset, the Saarbrucken Voice Disorders (SVD) database, and a TACTICAS dataset. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is employed as the classifier, given its widespread adoption and efficacy. Our findings indicate that the accuracy of MFCC decreases as hop length increases, and the optimal number of coefficients is observed to be approximately 30. The performance of MFCC varies with frame length across the datasets: for the COVID-19 datasets (Cambridge COVID-19 Sound database and Coswara dataset), performance declines with longer frame lengths, while for the SVD dataset, performance improves with increasing frame length (from 50 ms to 500 ms). Furthermore, we investigate the optimized combination of these parameters and observe substantial enhancements in accuracy. Compared to the worst combination, the SVM model achieves an accuracy of 81.1%, 80.6%, and 71.7%, with improvements of 19.6%, 16.10%, and 14.90% for the Cambridge COVID-19 Sound database, the Coswara dataset, and the SVD dataset respectively.

Despite evidence that fine-tuning with curriculum learning improves the performance of LLMs for natural language understanding tasks, its effectiveness is typically assessed using a single model. In this work, we extend previous research by evaluating both curriculum-based and non-curriculum-based learning strategies across multiple LLMs, using human-defined and automated data labels for medical question answering. Our results indicate a moderate impact of using human-inspired learning strategies for fine-tuning LLMs, with maximum accuracy gains of 1.77% per model and 1.81% per dataset. Crucially, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of these strategies varies significantly across different model-dataset combinations, emphasising that the benefits of a specific human-inspired strategy for fine-tuning LLMs do not generalise. Additionally, we find evidence that curriculum learning using LLM-defined question difficulty outperforms human-defined difficulty, highlighting the potential of using model-generated measures for optimal curriculum design.