Statistical Learning
Automatic Dataset Construction (ADC): Sample Collection, Data Curation, and Beyond
Liu, Minghao, Di, Zonglin, Wei, Jiaheng, Wang, Zhongruo, Zhang, Hengxiang, Xiao, Ruixuan, Wang, Haoyu, Pang, Jinlong, Chen, Hao, Shah, Ankit, Wei, Hongxin, He, Xinlei, Zhao, Zhaowei, Wang, Haobo, Feng, Lei, Wang, Jindong, Davis, James, Liu, Yang
Large-scale data collection is essential for developing personalized training data, mitigating the shortage of training data, and fine-tuning specialized models. However, creating high-quality datasets quickly and accurately remains a challenge due to annotation errors, the substantial time and costs associated with human labor. To address these issues, we propose Automatic Dataset Construction (ADC), an innovative methodology that automates dataset creation with negligible cost and high efficiency. Taking the image classification task as a starting point, ADC leverages LLMs for the detailed class design and code generation to collect relevant samples via search engines, significantly reducing the need for manual annotation and speeding up the data generation process. Despite these advantages, ADC also encounters real-world challenges such as label errors (label noise) and imbalanced data distributions (label bias). We provide open-source software that incorporates existing methods for label error detection, robust learning under noisy and biased data, ensuring a higher-quality training data and more robust model training procedure. Furthermore, we design three benchmark datasets focused on label noise detection, label noise learning, and class-imbalanced learning. These datasets are vital because there are few existing datasets specifically for label noise detection, despite its importance. Finally, we evaluate the performance of existing popular methods on these datasets, thereby facilitating further research in the field.
Last-Iterate Convergence of General Parameterized Policies in Constrained MDPs
Mondal, Washim Uddin, Aggarwal, Vaneet
Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP) is a classical framework where an agent repeatedly interacts with an unknown environment to maximize the cumulative discounted rewards while simultaneously ensuring that the cumulative observed costs are within a pre-defined boundary. It finds its application in a multitude of practical scenarios. For example, consider an autonomous vehicle that attempts to reach its destination via the shortest-time route without violating traffic rules or a corporate leader who aims to maximize revenue without crossing a monetary budget. In these cases, any departure from the boundary set by the predefined rules can be signaled by a cost while the progress towards the desired objective can be indicated by a reward. Finding an optimal policy to navigate an unknown CMDP is a difficult task. Nevertheless, several recent articles have proposed algorithms to solve this challenging problem with optimality guarantees.
Vanilla Gradient Descent for Oblique Decision Trees
Panda, Subrat Prasad, Genest, Blaise, Easwaran, Arvind, Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam
Decision Trees (DTs) constitute one of the major highly non-linear AI models, valued, e.g., for their efficiency on tabular data. Learning accurate DTs is, however, complicated, especially for oblique DTs, and does take a significant training time. Further, DTs suffer from overfitting, e.g., they proverbially "do not generalize" in regression tasks. Recently, some works proposed ways to make (oblique) DTs differentiable. This enables highly efficient gradient-descent algorithms to be used to learn DTs. It also enables generalizing capabilities by learning regressors at the leaves simultaneously with the decisions in the tree. Prior approaches to making DTs differentiable rely either on probabilistic approximations at the tree's internal nodes (soft DTs) or on approximations in gradient computation at the internal node (quantized gradient descent). In this work, we propose DTSemNet, a novel semantically equivalent and invertible encoding for (hard, oblique) DTs as Neural Networks (NNs), that uses standard vanilla gradient descent. Experiments across various classification and regression benchmarks show that oblique DTs learned using DTSemNet are more accurate than oblique DTs of similar size learned using state-of-the-art techniques. Further, DT training time is significantly reduced. We also experimentally demonstrate that DTSemNet can learn DT policies as efficiently as NN policies in the Reinforcement Learning (RL) setup with physical inputs (dimensions $\leq32$). The code is available at {\color{blue}\textit{\url{https://github.com/CPS-research-group/dtsemnet}}}.
Distilling the Unknown to Unveil Certainty
Zhao, Zhilin, Cao, Longbing, Zhang, Yixuan, Lin, Kun-Yu, Zheng, Wei-Shi
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential in identifying test samples that deviate from the in-distribution (ID) data upon which a standard network is trained, ensuring network robustness and reliability. This paper introduces OOD knowledge distillation, a pioneering learning framework applicable whether or not training ID data is available, given a standard network. This framework harnesses unknown OOD-sensitive knowledge from the standard network to craft a certain binary classifier adept at distinguishing between ID and OOD samples. To accomplish this, we introduce Confidence Amendment (CA), an innovative methodology that transforms an OOD sample into an ID one while progressively amending prediction confidence derived from the standard network. This approach enables the simultaneous synthesis of both ID and OOD samples, each accompanied by an adjusted prediction confidence, thereby facilitating the training of a binary classifier sensitive to OOD. Theoretical analysis provides bounds on the generalization error of the binary classifier, demonstrating the pivotal role of confidence amendment in enhancing OOD sensitivity. Extensive experiments spanning various datasets and network architectures confirm the efficacy of the proposed method in detecting OOD samples.
Enhancing Startup Success Predictions in Venture Capital: A GraphRAG Augmented Multivariate Time Series Method
In the Venture Capital(VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis or deep learning often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. Regarding the issues, we propose a novel approach using GrahphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first application work of GraphRAG.
Narrowing the Focus: Learned Optimizers for Pretrained Models
Kristiansen, Gus, Sandler, Mark, Zhmoginov, Andrey, Miller, Nolan, Goyal, Anirudh, Lee, Jihwan, Vladymyrov, Max
In modern deep learning, the models are learned by applying gradient updates using an optimizer, which transforms the updates based on various statistics. Optimizers are often hand-designed and tuning their hyperparameters is a big part of the training process. Learned optimizers have shown some initial promise, but are generally unsuccessful as a general optimization mechanism applicable to every problem. In this work we explore a different direction: instead of learning general optimizers, we instead specialize them to a specific training environment. We propose a novel optimizer technique that learns a layer-specific linear combination of update directions provided by a set of base optimizers, effectively adapting its strategy to the specific model and dataset. When evaluated on image classification tasks, this specialized optimizer significantly outperforms both traditional off-the-shelf methods such as Adam, as well as existing general learned optimizers. Moreover, it demonstrates robust generalization with respect to model initialization, evaluating on unseen datasets, and training durations beyond its meta-training horizon.
PowerPM: Foundation Model for Power Systems
Tu, Shihao, Zhang, Yupeng, Zhang, Jing, Yang, Yang
The emergence of abundant electricity time series (ETS) data provides ample opportunities for various applications in the power systems, including demand-side management, grid stability, and consumer behavior analysis. Deep learning models have advanced ETS modeling by effectively capturing sequence dependence. Nevertheless, learning a generic representation of ETS data for various applications remains challenging due to the inherently complex hierarchical structure of ETS data. Moreover, ETS data exhibits intricate temporal dependencies and is suscepti ble to the influence of exogenous variables. Furthermore, different instances exhibit diverse electricity consumption behavior. In this paper, we propose a foundation model PowerPM to model ETS data, providing a large-scale, off-the-shelf model for power systems. PowerPM consists of a temporal encoder and a hierarchical encoder. The temporal encoder captures both temporal dependencies in ETS data, considering exogenous variables. The hierarchical encoder models the correlation between hierarchy. Furthermore, PowerPM leverages a novel self-supervised pretraining framework consisting of masked ETS modeling and dual-view contrastive learning, which enable PowerPM to capture temporal dependency within ETS windows and aware the discrepancy across ETS windows, providing two different perspectives to learn generic representation. Our experiments involve five real world scenario datasets, comprising private and public data. Through pre-training on massive ETS data, PowerPM achieves SOTA performance on diverse downstream tasks within the private dataset. Impressively, when transferred to the public datasets, PowerPM maintains its superiority, showcasing its remarkable generalization ability across various tasks and domains. Moreover, ablation studies, few-shot experiments provide additional evidence of the effectiveness of our model.
Scalable and non-iterative graphical model estimation
Khare, Kshitij, Rahman, Syed, Rajaratnam, Bala, Zhou, Jiayuan
Graphical models have found widespread applications in many areas of modern statistics and machine learning. Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and its variants have become the default method for undirected graphical model estimation, and are thus ubiquitous in the field. As the IPF is an iterative approach, it is not always readily scalable to modern high-dimensional data regimes. In this paper we propose a novel and fast non-iterative method for positive definite graphical model estimation in high dimensions, one that directly addresses the shortcomings of IPF and its variants. In addition, the proposed method has a number of other attractive properties. First, we show formally that as the dimension p grows, the proportion of graphs for which the proposed method will outperform the state-of-the-art in terms of computational complexity and performance tends to 1, affirming its efficacy in modern settings. Second, the proposed approach can be readily combined with scalable non-iterative thresholding-based methods for high-dimensional sparsity selection. Third, the proposed method has high-dimensional statistical guarantees. Moreover, our numerical experiments also show that the proposed method achieves scalability without compromising on statistical precision. Fourth, unlike the IPF, which depends on the Gaussian likelihood, the proposed method is much more robust.
Accelerated training of deep learning surrogate models for surface displacement and flow, with application to MCMC-based history matching of CO2 storage operations
Han, Yifu, Hamon, Francois P., Durlofsky, Louis J.
Deep learning surrogate modeling shows great promise for subsurface flow applications, but the training demands can be substantial. Here we introduce a new surrogate modeling framework to predict CO2 saturation, pressure and surface displacement for use in the history matching of carbon storage operations. Rather than train using a large number of expensive coupled flow-geomechanics simulation runs, training here involves a large number of inexpensive flow-only simulations combined with a much smaller number of coupled runs. The flow-only runs use an effective rock compressibility, which is shown to provide accurate predictions for saturation and pressure for our system. A recurrent residual U-Net architecture is applied for the saturation and pressure surrogate models, while a new residual U-Net model is introduced to predict surface displacement. The surface displacement surrogate accepts, as inputs, geomodel quantities along with saturation and pressure surrogate predictions. Median relative error for a diverse test set is less than 4% for all variables. The surrogate models are incorporated into a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo history matching workflow. Surrogate error is included using a new treatment involving the full model error covariance matrix. A high degree of prior uncertainty, with geomodels characterized by uncertain geological scenario parameters (metaparameters) and associated realizations, is considered. History matching results for a synthetic true model are generated using in-situ monitoring-well data only, surface displacement data only, and both data types. The enhanced uncertainty reduction achieved with both data types is quantified. Posterior saturation and surface displacement fields are shown to correspond well with the true solution.
Kernel-Based Differentiable Learning of Non-Parametric Directed Acyclic Graphical Models
Liang, Yurou, Zadorozhnyi, Oleksandr, Drton, Mathias
Causal discovery amounts to learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that encodes a causal model. This model selection problem can be challenging due to its large combinatorial search space, particularly when dealing with non-parametric causal models. Recent research has sought to bypass the combinatorial search by reformulating causal discovery as a continuous optimization problem, employing constraints that ensure the acyclicity of the graph. In non-parametric settings, existing approaches typically rely on finite-dimensional approximations of the relationships between nodes, resulting in a score-based continuous optimization problem with a smooth acyclicity constraint. In this work, we develop an alternative approximation method by utilizing reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and applying general sparsity-inducing regularization terms based on partial derivatives. Within this framework, we introduce an extended RKHS representer theorem. To enforce acyclicity, we advocate the log-determinant formulation of the acyclicity constraint and show its stability. Finally, we assess the performance of our proposed RKHS-DAGMA procedure through simulations and illustrative data analyses.