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 Statistical Learning


Optimizing Mortality Prediction for ICU Heart Failure Patients: Leveraging XGBoost and Advanced Machine Learning with the MIMIC-III Database

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heart failure affects millions of people worldwide, significantly reducing quality of life and leading to high mortality rates. Despite extensive research, the relationship between heart failure and mortality rates among ICU patients is not fully understood, indicating the need for more accurate prediction models. This study analyzed data from 1,177 patients over 18 years old from the MIMIC-III database, identified using ICD-9 codes. Preprocessing steps included handling missing data, removing duplicates, treating skewness, and using oversampling techniques to address data imbalances. Through rigorous feature selection using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), expert clinical input, and ablation studies, 46 key features were identified to enhance model performance. Our analysis compared several machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. XGBoost emerged as the superior model, achieving a test AUC-ROC of 0.9228 (95\% CI 0.8748 - 0.9613), significantly outperforming our previous work (AUC-ROC of 0.8766) and the best results reported in existing literature (AUC-ROC of 0.824). The improved model's success is attributed to advanced feature selection methods, robust preprocessing techniques, and comprehensive hyperparameter optimization through Grid-Search. SHAP analysis and feature importance evaluations based on XGBoost highlighted key variables like leucocyte count and RDW, providing valuable insights into the clinical factors influencing mortality risk. This framework offers significant support for clinicians, enabling them to identify high-risk ICU heart failure patients and improve patient outcomes through timely and informed interventions.


NUDGE: Lightweight Non-Parametric Fine-Tuning of Embeddings for Retrieval

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

$k$-Nearest Neighbor search on dense vector embeddings ($k$-NN retrieval) from pre-trained embedding models is the predominant retrieval method for text and images, as well as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines. In practice, application developers often fine-tune the embeddings to improve their accuracy on the dataset and query workload in hand. Existing approaches either fine-tune the pre-trained model itself or, more efficiently, but at the cost of accuracy, train adaptor models to transform the output of the pre-trained model. We present NUDGE, a family of novel non-parametric embedding fine-tuning approaches that are significantly more accurate and efficient than both sets of existing approaches. NUDGE directly modifies the embeddings of data records to maximize the accuracy of $k$-NN retrieval. We present a thorough theoretical and experimental study of NUDGE's non-parametric approach. We show that even though the underlying problem is NP-Hard, constrained variations can be solved efficiently. These constraints additionally ensure that the changes to the embeddings are modest, avoiding large distortions to the semantics learned during pre-training. In experiments across five pre-trained models and nine standard text and image retrieval datasets, NUDGE runs in minutes and often improves NDCG@10 by more than 10% over existing fine-tuning methods. On average, NUDGE provides 3.3x and 4.3x higher increase in accuracy and runs 200x and 3x faster, respectively, over fine-tuning the pre-trained model and training adaptors.


Chemical Reaction Neural Networks for Fitting Accelerating Rate Calorimetry Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Thermal runaway in battery packs is a major safety concern for commercial applications such as electric vehicles, potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes like battery pack fires. This phenomenon occurs due to thermal abuse conditions that lead to exothermic degradation reactions of battery components, such as anode decomposition, cathode conversion, SEI decomposition, and electrolyte breakdown[1, 2]. Typical thermal abuse failure modes include, but are not limited to, physical damage, internal short circuits, overcharging, or overheating (e.g., extreme temperature exposure)[1]. The heat released under such conditions, when a cell or group of cells fails, can lead to a chain reaction where adjacent cells enter a self-heating state and undergo thermal runaway[3]. This propagation can consume an entire battery module or pack. These safety concerns are even more pressing in today's electrification environment, particularly as the industry moves towards higher power and energy density cells[1, 4]. To address these concerns, cell and pack manufacturers must adhere to strict safety protocols to avoid catastrophic outcomes. Simulation-driven design offers a platform to optimize designs and aid in the prevention and mitigation of thermal runaway. For example, thermal analysis of novel heat shield materials can be conducted efficiently to understand their effectiveness at mitigating propagation.


GANs Conditioning Methods: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have seen significant advancements, leading to their widespread adoption across various fields. The original GAN architecture enables the generation of images without any specific control over the content, making it an unconditional generation process. However, many practical applications require precise control over the generated output, which has led to the development of conditional GANs (cGANs) that incorporate explicit conditioning to guide the generation process. cGANs extend the original framework by incorporating additional information (conditions), enabling the generation of samples that adhere to that specific criteria. Various conditioning methods have been proposed, each differing in how they integrate the conditioning information into both the generator and the discriminator networks. In this work, we review the conditioning methods proposed for GANs, exploring the characteristics of each method and highlighting their unique mechanisms and theoretical foundations. Furthermore, we conduct a comparative analysis of these methods, evaluating their performance on various image datasets. Through these analyses, we aim to provide insights into the strengths and limitations of various conditioning techniques, guiding future research and application in generative modeling.


Federated Prediction-Powered Inference from Decentralized Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In various domains, the increasing application of machine learning allows researchers to access inexpensive predictive data, which can be utilized as auxiliary data for statistical inference. Although such data are often unreliable compared to gold-standard datasets, Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) has been proposed to ensure statistical validity despite the unreliability. However, the challenge of `data silos' arises when the private gold-standard datasets are non-shareable for model training, leading to less accurate predictive models and invalid inferences. In this paper, we introduces the Federated Prediction-Powered Inference (Fed-PPI) framework, which addresses this challenge by enabling decentralized experimental data to contribute to statistically valid conclusions without sharing private information. The Fed-PPI framework involves training local models on private data, aggregating them through Federated Learning (FL), and deriving confidence intervals using PPI computation. The proposed framework is evaluated through experiments, demonstrating its effectiveness in producing valid confidence intervals.


A Confidence Interval for the $\ell_2$ Expected Calibration Error

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the $\ell_2$ Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-$k$ calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.


CTG-KrEW: Generating Synthetic Structured Contextually Correlated Content by Conditional Tabular GAN with K-Means Clustering and Efficient Word Embedding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) and their various derivatives are attractive for their ability to efficiently and flexibly create synthetic tabular data, showcasing strong performance and adaptability. However, there are certain critical limitations to such models. The first is their inability to preserve the semantic integrity of contextually correlated words or phrases. For instance, skillset in freelancer profiles is one such attribute where individual skills are semantically interconnected and indicative of specific domain interests or qualifications. The second challenge of traditional approaches is that, when applied to generate contextually correlated tabular content, besides generating semantically shallow content, they consume huge memory resources and CPU time during the training stage. To address these problems, we introduce a novel framework, CTGKrEW (Conditional Tabular GAN with KMeans Clustering and Word Embedding), which is adept at generating realistic synthetic tabular data where attributes are collections of semantically and contextually coherent words. CTGKrEW is trained and evaluated using a dataset from Upwork, a realworld freelancing platform. Comprehensive experiments were conducted to analyze the variability, contextual similarity, frequency distribution, and associativity of the generated data, along with testing the framework's system feasibility. CTGKrEW also takes around 99\% less CPU time and 33\% less memory footprints than the conventional approach. Furthermore, we developed KrEW, a web application to facilitate the generation of realistic data containing skill-related information. This application, available at https://riyasamanta.github.io/krew.html, is freely accessible to both the general public and the research community.


Optimizing CLIP Models for Image Retrieval with Maintained Joint-Embedding Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contrastive Language and Image Pairing (CLIP), a transformative method in multimedia retrieval, typically trains two neural networks concurrently to generate joint embeddings for text and image pairs. However, when applied directly, these models often struggle to differentiate between visually distinct images that have similar captions, resulting in suboptimal performance for image-based similarity searches. This paper addresses the challenge of optimizing CLIP models for various image-based similarity search scenarios, while maintaining their effectiveness in text-based search tasks such as text-to-image retrieval and zero-shot classification. We propose and evaluate two novel methods aimed at refining the retrieval capabilities of CLIP without compromising the alignment between text and image embeddings. The first method involves a sequential fine-tuning process: initially optimizing the image encoder for more precise image retrieval and subsequently realigning the text encoder to these optimized image embeddings. The second approach integrates pseudo-captions during the retrieval-optimization phase to foster direct alignment within the embedding space. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that these methods enhance CLIP's performance on various benchmarks, including image retrieval, k-NN classification, and zero-shot text-based classification, while maintaining robustness in text-to-image retrieval. Our optimized models permit maintaining a single embedding per image, significantly simplifying the infrastructure needed for large-scale multi-modal similarity search systems.


Decompose the model: Mechanistic interpretability in image models with Generalized Integrated Gradients (GIG)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the field of eXplainable AI (XAI) in language models, the progression from local explanations of individual decisions to global explanations with high-level concepts has laid the groundwork for mechanistic interpretability, which aims to decode the exact operations. However, this paradigm has not been adequately explored in image models, where existing methods have primarily focused on classspecific interpretations. This paper introduces a novel approach to systematically trace the entire pathway from input through all intermediate layers to the final output within the whole dataset. We utilize Pointwise Feature Vectors (PFVs) and Effective Receptive Fields (ERFs) to decompose model embeddings into interpretable Concept Vectors. Then, we calculate the relevance between concept vectors with our Generalized Integrated Gradients (GIG), enabling a comprehensive, dataset-wide analysis of model behavior. In the field of eXplainable AI (XAI), efforts have historically transitioned from Local explanation to Global explanation to Mechanistic Interpretability. While local explanation methods including Selvaraju et al. (2016); Montavon et al. (2017); Sundararajan et al. (2017); Han et al. (2024) have focused on explaining specific decisions for individual instances, global explanation methods seek to uncover overall patterns and behaviors applicable across the entire dataset (Wu et al., 2022; Xuanyuan et al., 2023; Singh et al., 2024).


Toward Capturing Genetic Epistasis From Multivariate Genome-Wide Association Studies Using Mixed-Precision Kernel Ridge Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We exploit the widening margin in tensor-core performance between [FP64/FP32/FP16/INT8,FP64/FP32/FP16/FP8/INT8] on NVIDIA [Ampere,Hopper] GPUs to boost the performance of output accuracy-preserving mixed-precision computation of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) of 305K patients from the UK BioBank, the largest-ever GWAS cohort studied for genetic epistasis using a multivariate approach. Tile-centric adaptive-precision linear algebraic techniques motivated by reducing data motion gain enhanced significance with low-precision GPU arithmetic. At the core of Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) techniques for GWAS lie compute-bound cubic-complexity matrix operations that inhibit scaling to aspirational dimensions of the population, genotypes, and phenotypes. We accelerate KRR matrix generation by redesigning the computation for Euclidean distances to engage INT8 tensor cores while exploiting symmetry.We accelerate solution of the regularized KRR systems by deploying a new four-precision Cholesky-based solver, which, at 1.805 mixed-precision ExaOp/s on a nearly full Alps system, outperforms the state-of-the-art CPU-only REGENIE GWAS software by five orders of magnitude.