Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the earth system and can affect the climate on timescales of months to years. However, estimating the characteristics of partially observed aerosol injections, such as those from volcanic eruptions, is fraught with uncertainties. This article presents a framework for stratospheric aerosol source inversion which accounts for background aerosol noise and earth system internal variability via a Bayesian approximation error approach. We leverage specially designed earth system model simulations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A comprehensive framework for data generation, data processing, dimension reduction, operator learning, and Bayesian inversion is presented where each component of the framework is designed to address particular challenges in stratospheric modeling on the global scale. We present numerical results using synthesized observational data to rigorously assess the ability of our approach to estimate aerosol sources and associate uncertainty with those estimates.

Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) have significantly propelled the information retrieval (IR) field. Still, the effectiveness of HGNNs heavily relies on high-quality labels, which are often expensive to acquire. This challenge has shifted attention towards Heterogeneous Graph Contrastive Learning (HGCL), which usually requires pre-defined meta-paths. However, our findings reveal that meta-path combinations significantly affect performance in unsupervised settings, an aspect often overlooked in current literature. Existing HGCL methods have considerable variability in outcomes across different meta-path combinations, thereby challenging the optimization process to achieve consistent and high performance. In response, we introduce LAMP (LearnAble Meta-Path), a novel adversarial contrastive learning approach that integrates various meta-path sub-graphs into a unified and stable structure, leveraging the overlap among these sub-graphs. To address the denseness of this integrated sub-graph, we propose an adversarial training strategy for edge pruning, maintaining sparsity to enhance model performance and robustness. LAMP aims to maximize the difference between meta-path and network schema views for guiding contrastive learning to capture the most meaningful information. Our extensive experimental study conducted on four diverse datasets from the Heterogeneous Graph Benchmark (HGB) demonstrates that LAMP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art unsupervised models in terms of accuracy and robustness.

In this paper, we show how $K$-nearest neighbor ($K$-NN) resampling, an off-policy evaluation method proposed in \cite{giegrich2023k}, can be applied to simulate limit order book (LOB) markets and how it can be used to evaluate and calibrate trading strategies. Using historical LOB data, we demonstrate that our simulation method is capable of recreating realistic LOB dynamics and that synthetic trading within the simulation leads to a market impact in line with the corresponding literature. Compared to other statistical LOB simulation methods, our algorithm has theoretical convergence guarantees under general conditions, does not require optimization, is easy to implement and computationally efficient. Furthermore, we show that in a benchmark comparison our method outperforms a deep learning-based algorithm for several key statistics. In the context of a LOB with pro-rata type matching, we demonstrate how our algorithm can calibrate the size of limit orders for a liquidation strategy. Finally, we describe how $K$-NN resampling can be modified for choices of higher dimensional state spaces.

The increasing size of screening libraries poses a significant challenge for the development of virtual screening methods for drug discovery, necessitating a re-evaluation of traditional approaches in the era of big data. Although 3D pharmacophore screening remains a prevalent technique, its application to very large datasets is limited by the computational cost associated with matching query pharmacophores to database ligands. In this study, we introduce PharmacoMatch, a novel contrastive learning approach based on neural subgraph matching. Our method reinterprets pharmacophore screening as an approximate subgraph matching problem and enables efficient querying of conformational databases by encoding query-target relationships in the embedding space. We conduct comprehensive evaluations of the learned representations and benchmark our method on virtual screening datasets in a zero-shot setting. Our findings demonstrate significantly shorter runtimes for pharmacophore matching, offering a promising speed-up for screening very large datasets.

This paper presents Adaptive Meta-Domain Transfer Learning (AMDTL), a novel methodology that combines principles of meta-learning with domain-specific adaptations to enhance the transferability of artificial intelligence models across diverse and unknown domains. AMDTL aims to address the main challenges of transfer learning, such as domain misalignment, negative transfer, and catastrophic forgetting, through a hybrid framework that emphasizes both generalization and contextual specialization. The framework integrates a meta-learner trained on a diverse distribution of tasks, adversarial training techniques for aligning domain feature distributions, and dynamic feature regulation mechanisms based on contextual domain embeddings. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that AMDTL outperforms existing transfer learning methodologies in terms of accuracy, adaptation efficiency, and robustness. This research provides a solid theoretical and practical foundation for the application of AMDTL in various fields, opening new perspectives for the development of more adaptable and inclusive AI systems.

Linux-based cloud environments have become lucrative targets for ransomware attacks, employing various encryption schemes at unprecedented speeds. Addressing the urgency for real-time ransomware protection, we propose leveraging the extended Berkeley Packet Filter (eBPF) to collect system call information regarding active processes and infer about the data directly at the kernel level. In this study, we implement two Machine Learning (ML) models in eBPF - a decision tree and a multilayer perceptron. Benchmarking latency and accuracy against their user space counterparts, our findings underscore the efficacy of this approach.

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly being investigated for this task where large-scale climate variability is linked to local or regional temperature or precipitation in a linear or non-linear fashion. This paper investigates the use of interpretable ML methods to predict seasonal precipitation for East Africa in an operational setting. Dimension reduction is performed by decomposing the precipitation fields via empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), such that only the respective factor loadings need to the predicted. Indices of large-scale climate variability--including the rate of change in individual indices as well as interactions between different indices--are then used as potential features to obtain tercile forecasts from an interpretable ML algorithm. Several research questions regarding the use of data and the effect of model complexity are studied. The results are compared against the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) for three seasons--MAM, JJAS and OND--over the period 1993-2020. Compared to climatology for the same period, the ECMWF forecasts have negative skill in MAM and JJAS and significant positive skill in OND. The ML approach is on par with climatology in MAM and JJAS and a significantly positive skill in OND, if not quite at the level of the OND ECMWF forecast.

The primary task of survival analysis is to determine the timing of one or multiple events, which can signify the moment of a mechanical system malfunction, the period of transition from corporate deficit to surplus, the instance of patient fatality or so on, depending on the specific circumstance (Lee and Whitmore, 2006). Among all scenarios, survival analysis for medical data poses the most severe challenges (Collett, 2023). Some medical datasets are longitudinal, as exemplified by electronic health records (EHRs), where multiple observations of each patient's covariates over time are recorded. Survival models must be capable of handling such measurements and learning from their continuous temporal trends. Moreover, observations in longitudinal data are often sparse, necessitating the effective handling of missing values for any reliable survival model, even when the missing rates are exceedingly high (Singer and Willett, 1991). Additionally, censoring represents a fundamental aspect of survival data, referring to cases in which complete information regarding the survival time or event occurrence of a subject is not fully observed or available within the study period (Leung et al, 1997).

This paper proposes methods of estimation and uniform inference for a general class of causal functions, such as the conditional average treatment effects and the continuous treatment effects, under multiway clustering. The causal function is identified as a conditional expectation of an adjusted (Neyman-orthogonal) signal that depends on high-dimensional nuisance parameters. We propose a two-step procedure where the first step uses machine learning to estimate the high-dimensional nuisance parameters. The second step projects the estimated Neyman-orthogonal signal onto a dictionary of basis functions whose dimension grows with the sample size. For this two-step procedure, we propose both the full-sample and the multiway cross-fitting estimation approaches. A functional limit theory is derived for these estimators. To construct the uniform confidence bands, we develop a novel resampling procedure, called the multiway cluster-robust sieve score bootstrap, that extends the sieve score bootstrap (Chen and Christensen, 2018) to the novel setting with multiway clustering. Extensive numerical simulations showcase that our methods achieve desirable finite-sample behaviors. We apply the proposed methods to analyze the causal relationship between mistrust levels in Africa and the historical slave trade. Our analysis rejects the null hypothesis of uniformly zero effects and reveals heterogeneous treatment effects, with significant impacts at higher levels of trade volumes.

This paper introduces a generalized ps-BART model for the estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in continuous treatments, addressing limitations of the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model. The ps-BART model's nonparametric nature allows for flexibility in capturing nonlinear relationships between treatment and outcome variables. Across three distinct sets of Data Generating Processes (DGPs), the ps-BART model consistently outperforms the BCF model, particularly in highly nonlinear settings. The ps-BART model's robustness in uncertainty estimation and accuracy in both point-wise and probabilistic estimation demonstrate its utility for real-world applications. This research fills a crucial gap in causal inference literature, providing a tool better suited for nonlinear treatment-outcome relationships and opening avenues for further exploration in the domain of continuous treatment effect estimation.