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 Statistical Learning


Amortized Variational Inference for Deep Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal densities as well as complex mappings. As exact inference is either computationally prohibitive or analytically intractable in GPs and extensions thereof, some existing methods resort to variational inference (VI) techniques for tractable approximations. However, the expressivity of conventional approximate GP models critically relies on independent inducing variables that might not be informative enough for some problems. In this work we introduce amortized variational inference for DGPs, which learns an inference function that maps each observation to variational parameters. The resulting method enjoys a more expressive prior conditioned on fewer input dependent inducing variables and a flexible amortized marginal posterior that is able to model more complicated functions. We show with theoretical reasoning and experimental results that our method performs similarly or better than previous approaches at less computational cost.


Distilling Channels for Efficient Deep Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep trackers have proven success in visual tracking. Typically, these trackers employ optimally pre-trained deep networks to represent all diverse objects with multi-channel features from some fixed layers. The deep networks employed are usually trained to extract rich knowledge from massive data used in object classification and so they are capable to represent generic objects very well. However, these networks are too complex to represent a specific moving object, leading to poor generalization as well as high computational and memory costs. This paper presents a novel and general framework termed channel distillation to facilitate deep trackers. To validate the effectiveness of channel distillation, we take discriminative correlation filter (DCF) and ECO for example. We demonstrate that an integrated formulation can turn feature compression, response map generation, and model update into a unified energy minimization problem to adaptively select informative feature channels that improve the efficacy of tracking moving objects on the fly. Channel distillation can accurately extract good channels, alleviating the influence of noisy channels and generally reducing the number of channels, as well as adaptively generalizing to different channels and networks. The resulting deep tracker is accurate, fast, and has low memory requirements. Extensive experimental evaluations on popular benchmarks clearly demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our framework.


Bundle Fragments into a Whole: Mining More Complete Clusters via Submodular Selection of Interesting webpages for Web Topic Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Organizing interesting webpages into hot topics is one of key steps to understand the trends of multimodal web data. A state-of-the-art solution is firstly to organize webpages into a large volume of multi-granularity topic candidates; hot topics are further identified by estimating their interestingness. However, these topic candidates contain a large number of fragments of hot topics due to both the inefficient feature representations and the unsupervised topic generation. This paper proposes a bundling-refining approach to mine more complete hot topics from fragments. Concretely, the bundling step organizes the fragment topics into coarse topics; next, the refining step proposes a submodular-based method to refine coarse topics in a scalable approach. The propose unconventional method is simple, yet powerful by leveraging submodular optimization, our approach outperforms the traditional ranking methods which involve the careful design and complex steps. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach surpasses the state-of-the-art method (i.e., latent Poisson deconvolution Pang et al. (2016)) 20% accuracy and 10% one on two public data sets, respectively.


Stronger Baseline Models -- A Key Requirement for Aligning Machine Learning Research with Clinical Utility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine Learning (ML) research has increased substantially in recent years, due to the success of predictive modeling across diverse application domains. However, well-known barriers exist when attempting to deploy ML models in high-stakes, clinical settings, including lack of model transparency (or the inability to audit the inference process), large training data requirements with siloed data sources, and complicated metrics for measuring model utility. In this work, we show empirically that including stronger baseline models in healthcare ML evaluations has important downstream effects that aid practitioners in addressing these challenges. Through a series of case studies, we find that the common practice of omitting baselines or comparing against a weak baseline model (e.g. a linear model with no optimization) obscures the value of ML methods proposed in the research literature. Using these insights, we propose some best practices that will enable practitioners to more effectively study and deploy ML models in clinical settings.


NPAT Null-Space Projected Adversarial Training Towards Zero Deterioration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To mitigate the susceptibility of neural networks to adversarial attacks, adversarial training has emerged as a prevalent and effective defense strategy. Intrinsically, this countermeasure incurs a trade-off, as it sacrifices the model's accuracy in processing normal samples. To reconcile the trade-off, we pioneer the incorporation of null-space projection into adversarial training and propose two innovative Null-space Projection based Adversarial Training(NPAT) algorithms tackling sample generation and gradient optimization, named Null-space Projected Data Augmentation (NPDA) and Null-space Projected Gradient Descent (NPGD), to search for an overarching optimal solutions, which enhance robustness with almost zero deterioration in generalization performance. Adversarial samples and perturbations are constrained within the null-space of the decision boundary utilizing a closed-form null-space projector, effectively mitigating threat of attack stemming from unreliable features. Subsequently, we conducted experiments on the CIFAR10 and SVHN datasets and reveal that our methodology can seamlessly combine with adversarial training methods and obtain comparable robustness while keeping generalization close to a high-accuracy model.


An Efficient Model-Agnostic Approach for Uncertainty Estimation in Data-Restricted Pedometric Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a model-agnostic approach designed to enhance uncertainty estimation in the predictive modeling of soil properties, a crucial factor for advancing pedometrics and the practice of digital soil mapping. For addressing the typical challenge of data scarcity in soil studies, we present an improved technique for uncertainty estimation. This method is based on the transformation of regression tasks into classification problems, which not only allows for the production of reliable uncertainty estimates but also enables the application of established machine learning algorithms with competitive performance that have not yet been utilized in pedometrics. Empirical results from datasets collected from two German agricultural fields showcase the practical application of the proposed methodology. Our results and findings suggest that the proposed approach has the potential to provide better uncertainty estimation than the models commonly used in pedometrics.


Exploring Gaze Pattern in Autistic Children: Clustering, Visualization, and Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) significantly affects the social and communication abilities of children, and eye-tracking is commonly used as a diagnostic tool by identifying associated atypical gaze patterns. Traditional methods demand manual identification of Areas of Interest in gaze patterns, lowering the performance of gaze behavior analysis in ASD subjects. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel method to automatically analyze gaze behaviors in ASD children with superior accuracy. To be specific, we first apply and optimize seven clustering algorithms to automatically group gaze points to compare ASD subjects with typically developing peers. Subsequently, we extract 63 significant features to fully describe the patterns. These features can describe correlations between ASD diagnosis and gaze patterns. Lastly, using these features as prior knowledge, we train multiple predictive machine learning models to predict and diagnose ASD based on their gaze behaviors. To evaluate our method, we apply our method to three ASD datasets. The experimental and visualization results demonstrate the improvements of clustering algorithms in the analysis of unique gaze patterns in ASD children. Additionally, these predictive machine learning models achieved state-of-the-art prediction performance ($81\%$ AUC) in the field of automatically constructed gaze point features for ASD diagnosis. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/username/projectname}.


An Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Traffic Accident Fatality Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Road traffic accidents (RTA) pose a significant public health threat worldwide, leading to considerable loss of life and economic burdens. This is particularly acute in developing countries like Bangladesh. Building reliable models to forecast crash outcomes is crucial for implementing effective preventive measures. To aid in developing targeted safety interventions, this study presents a machine learning-based approach for classifying fatal and non-fatal road accident outcomes using data from the Dhaka metropolitan traffic crash database from 2017 to 2022. Our framework utilizes a range of machine learning classification algorithms, comprising Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and Artificial Neural Network. We prioritize model interpretability by employing the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method, which elucidates the key factors influencing accident fatality. Our results demonstrate that LightGBM outperforms other models, achieving a ROC-AUC score of 0.72. The global, local, and feature dependency analyses are conducted to acquire deeper insights into the behavior of the model. SHAP analysis reveals that casualty class, time of accident, location, vehicle type, and road type play pivotal roles in determining fatality risk. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and road safety practitioners in developing countries, enabling the implementation of evidence-based strategies to reduce traffic crash fatalities.


User-friendly Foundation Model Adapters for Multivariate Time Series Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models, while highly effective, are often resource-intensive, requiring substantial inference time and memory. This paper addresses the challenge of making these models more accessible with limited computational resources by exploring dimensionality reduction techniques. Our goal is to enable users to run large pre-trained foundation models on standard GPUs without sacrificing performance. We investigate classical methods such as Principal Component Analysis alongside neural network-based adapters, aiming to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate time series data while preserving key features. Our experiments show up to a 10x speedup compared to the baseline model, without performance degradation, and enable up to 4.5x more datasets to fit on a single GPU, paving the way for more user-friendly and scalable foundation models.


SplitVAEs: Decentralized scenario generation from siloed data for stochastic optimization problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic optimization problems in large-scale multi-stakeholder networked systems (e.g., power grids and supply chains) rely on data-driven scenarios to encapsulate complex spatiotemporal interdependencies. However, centralized aggregation of stakeholder data is challenging due to the existence of data silos resulting from computational and logistical bottlenecks. In this paper, we present SplitVAEs, a decentralized scenario generation framework that leverages variational autoencoders to generate high-quality scenarios without moving stakeholder data. With the help of experiments on distributed memory systems, we demonstrate the broad applicability of SplitVAEs in a variety of domain areas that are dominated by a large number of stakeholders. Our experiments indicate that SplitVAEs can learn spatial and temporal interdependencies in large-scale networks to generate scenarios that match the joint historical distribution of stakeholder data in a decentralized manner. Our experiments show that SplitVAEs deliver robust performance compared to centralized, state-of-the-art benchmark methods while significantly reducing data transmission costs, leading to a scalable, privacy-enhancing alternative to scenario generation.