Statistical Learning
Preconditioning for Accelerated Gradient Descent Optimization and Regularization
Accelerated training algorithms, such as adaptive learning rates and various normalization methods, are widely used but not fully understood. When regularization is introduced, standard optimizers like adaptive learning rates may not perform effectively. This raises the need for alternative regularization approaches and the question of how to properly combine regularization with preconditioning. In this paper, we address these challenges using the theory of preconditioning as follows: (1) We explain how preconditioning with AdaGrad, RMSProp, and Adam accelerates training; (2) We explore the interaction between regularization and preconditioning, outlining different options for selecting the variables for regularization, and in particular we discuss how to implement that for the gradient regularization; and (3) We demonstrate how normalization methods accelerate training by improving Hessian conditioning, and discuss how this perspective can lead to new preconditioning training algorithms. Our findings offer a unified mathematical framework for understanding various acceleration techniques and deriving appropriate regularization schemes.
Optimizing Treatment Allocation in the Presence of Interference
Caljon, Daan, Van Belle, Jente, Berrevoets, Jeroen, Verbeke, Wouter
In Influence Maximization (IM), the objective is to -- given a budget -- select the optimal set of entities in a network to target with a treatment so as to maximize the total effect. For instance, in marketing, the objective is to target the set of customers that maximizes the total response rate, resulting from both direct treatment effects on targeted customers and indirect, spillover, effects that follow from targeting these customers. Recently, new methods to estimate treatment effects in the presence of network interference have been proposed. However, the issue of how to leverage these models to make better treatment allocation decisions has been largely overlooked. Traditionally, in Uplift Modeling (UM), entities are ranked according to estimated treatment effect, and the top entities are allocated treatment. Since, in a network context, entities influence each other, the UM ranking approach will be suboptimal. The problem of finding the optimal treatment allocation in a network setting is combinatorial and generally has to be solved heuristically. To fill the gap between IM and UM, we propose OTAPI: Optimizing Treatment Allocation in the Presence of Interference to find solutions to the IM problem using treatment effect estimates. OTAPI consists of two steps. First, a causal estimator is trained to predict treatment effects in a network setting. Second, this estimator is leveraged to identify an optimal treatment allocation by integrating it into classic IM algorithms. We demonstrate that this novel method outperforms classic IM and UM approaches on both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.
Random Features Outperform Linear Models: Effect of Strong Input-Label Correlation in Spiked Covariance Data
Random Feature Model (RFM) with a nonlinear activation function is instrumental in understanding training and generalization performance in high-dimensional learning. While existing research has established an asymptotic equivalence in performance between the RFM and noisy linear models under isotropic data assumptions, empirical observations indicate that the RFM frequently surpasses linear models in practical applications. To address this gap, we ask, "When and how does the RFM outperform linear models?" In practice, inputs often have additional structures that significantly influence learning. Therefore, we explore the RFM under anisotropic input data characterized by spiked covariance in the proportional asymptotic limit, where dimensions diverge jointly while maintaining finite ratios. Our analysis reveals that a high correlation between inputs and labels is a critical factor enabling the RFM to outperform linear models. Moreover, we show that the RFM performs equivalent to noisy polynomial models, where the polynomial degree depends on the strength of the correlation between inputs and labels. Our numerical simulations validate these theoretical insights, confirming the performance-wise superiority of RFM in scenarios characterized by strong input-label correlation.
Numerically Robust Fixed-Point Smoothing Without State Augmentation
Practical implementations of Gaussian smoothing algorithms have received a great deal of attention in the last 60 years. However, almost all work focuses on estimating complete time series (''fixed-interval smoothing'', $\mathcal{O}(K)$ memory) through variations of the Rauch--Tung--Striebel smoother, rarely on estimating the initial states (''fixed-point smoothing'', $\mathcal{O}(1)$ memory). Since fixed-point smoothing is a crucial component of algorithms for dynamical systems with unknown initial conditions, we close this gap by introducing a new formulation of a Gaussian fixed-point smoother. In contrast to prior approaches, our perspective admits a numerically robust Cholesky-based form (without downdates) and avoids state augmentation, which would needlessly inflate the state-space model and reduce the numerical practicality of any fixed-point smoother code. The experiments demonstrate how a JAX implementation of our algorithm matches the runtime of the fastest methods and the robustness of the most robust techniques while existing implementations must always sacrifice one for the other.
Robust Multi-view Co-expression Network Inference
Pandeva, Teodora, Jonker, Martijs, Hamoen, Leendert, Mooij, Joris, Forrรฉ, Patrick
Unraveling the co-expression of genes across studies enhances the understanding of cellular processes. Inferring gene co-expression networks from transcriptome data presents many challenges, including spurious gene correlations, sample correlations, and batch effects. To address these complexities, we introduce a robust method for high-dimensional graph inference from multiple independent studies. We base our approach on the premise that each dataset is essentially a noisy linear mixture of gene loadings that follow a multivariate $t$-distribution with a sparse precision matrix, which is shared across studies. This allows us to show that we can identify the co-expression matrix up to a scaling factor among other model parameters. Our method employs an Expectation-Maximization procedure for parameter estimation. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and gene expression data demonstrates our method's improved ability to learn the underlying graph structure compared to baseline methods.
DataDRILL: Formation Pressure Prediction and Kick Detection for Drilling Rigs
Arifeen, Murshedul, Petrovski, Andrei, Hasan, Md Junayed, Kotenko, Igor, Sletov, Maksim, Hassard, Phil
Accurate real-time prediction of formation pressure and kick detection is crucial for drilling operations, as it can significantly improve decision-making and the cost-effectiveness of the process. Data-driven models have gained popularity for automating drilling operations by predicting formation pressure and detecting kicks. However, the current literature does not make supporting datasets publicly available to advance research in the field of drilling rigs, thus impeding technological progress in this domain. This paper introduces two new datasets to support researchers in developing intelligent algorithms to enhance oil/gas well drilling research. The datasets include data samples for formation pressure prediction and kick detection with 28 drilling variables and more than 2000 data samples. Principal component regression is employed to forecast formation pressure, while principal component analysis is utilized to identify kicks for the dataset's technical validation. Notably, the R2 and Residual Predictive Deviation scores for principal component regression are 0.78 and 0.922, respectively.
Realtime, multimodal invasive ventilation risk monitoring using language models and BoXHED
Pakbin, Arash, Su, Aaron, Lee, Donald K. K., Mortazavi, Bobak J.
Objective: realtime monitoring of invasive ventilation (iV) in intensive care units (ICUs) plays a crucial role in ensuring prompt interventions and better patient outcomes. However, conventional methods often overlook valuable insights embedded within clinical notes, relying solely on tabular data. In this study, we propose an innovative approach to enhance iV risk monitoring by incorporating clinical notes into the monitoring pipeline through using language models for text summarization. Results: We achieve superior performance in all metrics reported by the state-of-the-art in iV risk monitoring, namely: an AUROC of 0.86, an AUC-PR of 0.35, and an AUCt of up to 0.86. We also demonstrate that our methodology allows for more lead time in flagging iV for certain time buckets. Conclusion: Our study underscores the potential of integrating clinical notes and language models into realtime iV risk monitoring, paving the way for improved patient care and informed clinical decision-making in ICU settings.
RouterDC: Query-Based Router by Dual Contrastive Learning for Assembling Large Language Models
Chen, Shuhao, Jiang, Weisen, Lin, Baijiong, Kwok, James T., Zhang, Yu
Recent works show that assembling multiple off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) can harness their complementary abilities. To achieve this, routing is a promising method, which learns a router to select the most suitable LLM for each query. However, existing routing models are ineffective when multiple LLMs perform well for a query. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose a method called query-based Router by Dual Contrastive learning (RouterDC). The RouterDC model consists of an encoder and LLM embeddings, and we propose two contrastive learning losses to train the RouterDC model. Experimental results show that RouterDC is effective in assembling LLMs and largely outperforms individual top-performing LLMs as well as existing routing methods on both in-distribution (+2.76\%) and out-of-distribution (+1.90\%) tasks. Source code is available at https://github.com/shuhao02/RouterDC.
TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting
Gao, Wentao, Xu, Ziqi, Li, Jiuyong, Liu, Lin, Liu, Jixue, Le, Thuc Duy, Cheng, Debo, Zhao, Yanchang, Chen, Yun
As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.
Differentially Private Bilevel Optimization
We present differentially private (DP) algorithms for bilevel optimization, a problem class that received significant attention lately in various machine learning applications. These are the first DP algorithms for this task that are able to provide any desired privacy, while also avoiding Hessian computations which are prohibitive in large-scale settings. Under the well-studied setting in which the upper-level is not necessarily convex and the lower-level problem is strongly-convex, our proposed gradient-based $(\epsilon,\delta)$-DP algorithm returns a point with hypergradient norm at most $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\left((\sqrt{d_\mathrm{up}}/\epsilon n)^{1/2}+(\sqrt{d_\mathrm{low}}/\epsilon n)^{1/3}\right)$ where $n$ is the dataset size, and $d_\mathrm{up}/d_\mathrm{low}$ are the upper/lower level dimensions. Our analysis covers constrained and unconstrained problems alike, accounts for mini-batch gradients, and applies to both empirical and population losses.