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 Statistical Learning


Deep End-to-End Survival Analysis with Temporal Consistency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm, extending Temporal Learning concepts to Survival Regression. A central idea in our method is temporal consistency, a hypothesis that past and future outcomes in the data evolve smoothly over time. Our framework uniquely incorporates temporal consistency into large datasets by providing a stable training signal that captures long-term temporal relationships and ensures reliable updates. Additionally, the method supports arbitrarily complex architectures, enabling the modeling of intricate temporal dependencies, and allows for end-to-end training. Through numerous experiments we provide empirical evidence demonstrating our framework's ability to exploit temporal consistency across datasets of varying sizes. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms benchmarks on datasets with long sequences, demonstrating its ability to capture long-term patterns. Finally, ablation studies show how our method enhances training stability.


Safe and High-Performance Learning of Model Predicitve Control using Kernel-Based Interpolation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a method, which allows efficient and safe approximation of model predictive controllers using kernel interpolation. Since the computational complexity of the approximating function scales linearly with the number of data points, we propose to use a scoring function which chooses the most promising data. To further reduce the complexity of the approximation, we restrict our considerations to the set of closed-loop reachable states. That is, the approximating function only has to be accurate within this set. This makes our method especially suited for systems, where the set of initial conditions is small. In order to guarantee safety and high performance of the designed approximated controller, we use reachability analysis based on Monte Carlo methods.


Evaluating Computational Pathology Foundation Models for Prostate Cancer Grading under Distribution Shifts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models have recently become a popular research direction within computational pathology. They are intended to be general-purpose feature extractors, promising to achieve good performance on a range of downstream tasks. Real-world pathology image data does however exhibit considerable variability. Foundation models should be robust to these variations and other distribution shifts which might be encountered in practice. We evaluate two computational pathology foundation models: UNI (trained on more than 100,000 whole-slide images) and CONCH (trained on more than 1.1 million image-caption pairs), by utilizing them as feature extractors within prostate cancer grading models. We find that while UNI and CONCH perform well relative to baselines, the absolute performance can still be far from satisfactory in certain settings. The fact that foundation models have been trained on large and varied datasets does not guarantee that downstream models always will be robust to common distribution shifts.


Break the Visual Perception: Adversarial Attacks Targeting Encoded Visual Tokens of Large Vision-Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) integrate visual information into large language models, showcasing remarkable multi-modal conversational capabilities. However, the visual modules introduces new challenges in terms of robustness for LVLMs, as attackers can craft adversarial images that are visually clean but may mislead the model to generate incorrect answers. In general, LVLMs rely on vision encoders to transform images into visual tokens, which are crucial for the language models to perceive image contents effectively. Therefore, we are curious about one question: Can LVLMs still generate correct responses when the encoded visual tokens are attacked and disrupting the visual information? To this end, we propose a non-targeted attack method referred to as VT-Attack (Visual Tokens Attack), which constructs adversarial examples from multiple perspectives, with the goal of comprehensively disrupting feature representations and inherent relationships as well as the semantic properties of visual tokens output by image encoders. Using only access to the image encoder in the proposed attack, the generated adversarial examples exhibit transferability across diverse LVLMs utilizing the same image encoder and generality across different tasks. Extensive experiments validate the superior attack performance of the VT-Attack over baseline methods, demonstrating its effectiveness in attacking LVLMs with image encoders, which in turn can provide guidance on the robustness of LVLMs, particularly in terms of the stability of the visual feature space.


Toward Physics-guided Time Series Embedding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In various scientific and engineering fields, the primary research areas have revolved around physics-based dynamical systems modeling and data-driven time series analysis. According to the embedding theory, dynamical systems and time series can be mutually transformed using observation functions and physical reconstruction techniques. Based on this, we propose Embedding Duality Theory, where the parameterized embedding layer essentially provides a linear estimation of the non-linear time series dynamics. This theory enables us to bypass the parameterized embedding layer and directly employ physical reconstruction techniques to acquire a data embedding representation. Utilizing physical priors results in a 10X reduction in parameters, a 3X increase in speed, and maximum performance boosts of 18% in expert, 22% in few-shot, and 53\% in zero-shot tasks without any hyper-parameter tuning. All methods are encapsulated as a plug-and-play module


Effective Exploration Based on the Structural Information Principles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional information theory provides a valuable foundation for Reinforcement Learning (RL), particularly through representation learning and entropy maximization for agent exploration. However, existing methods primarily concentrate on modeling the uncertainty associated with RL's random variables, neglecting the inherent structure within the state and action spaces. In this paper, we propose a novel Structural Information principles-based Effective Exploration framework, namely SI2E. Structural mutual information between two variables is defined to address the single-variable limitation in structural information, and an innovative embedding principle is presented to capture dynamics-relevant state-action representations. The SI2E analyzes value differences in the agent's policy between state-action pairs and minimizes structural entropy to derive the hierarchical state-action structure, referred to as the encoding tree. Under this tree structure, value-conditional structural entropy is defined and maximized to design an intrinsic reward mechanism that avoids redundant transitions and promotes enhanced coverage in the state-action space. Theoretical connections are established between SI2E and classical information-theoretic methodologies, highlighting our framework's rationality and advantage. Comprehensive evaluations in the MiniGrid, MetaWorld, and DeepMind Control Suite benchmarks demonstrate that SI2E significantly outperforms state-of-the-art exploration baselines regarding final performance and sample efficiency, with maximum improvements of 37.63% and 60.25%, respectively.


$\beta$-calibration of Language Model Confidence Scores for Generative QA

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To use generative question-and-answering (QA) systems for decision-making and in any critical application, these systems need to provide well-calibrated confidence scores that reflect the correctness of their answers. Existing calibration methods aim to ensure that the confidence score is on average indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct. We argue, however, that this standard (average-case) notion of calibration is difficult to interpret for decision-making in generative QA. To address this, we generalize the standard notion of average calibration and introduce $\beta$-calibration, which ensures calibration holds across different question-and-answer groups. We then propose discretized posthoc calibration schemes for achieving $\beta$-calibration.


Efficient and Robust Knowledge Distillation from A Stronger Teacher Based on Correlation Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Distillation (KD) has emerged as a pivotal technique for neural network compression and performance enhancement. Most KD methods aim to transfer dark knowledge from a cumbersome teacher model to a lightweight student model based on Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence loss. However, the student performance improvements achieved through KD exhibit diminishing marginal returns, where a stronger teacher model does not necessarily lead to a proportionally stronger student model. To address this issue, we empirically find that the KL-based KD method may implicitly change the inter-class relationships learned by the student model, resulting in a more complex and ambiguous decision boundary, which in turn reduces the model's accuracy and generalization ability. Therefore, this study argues that the student model should learn not only the probability values from the teacher's output but also the relative ranking of classes, and proposes a novel Correlation Matching Knowledge Distillation (CMKD) method that combines the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients-based KD loss to achieve more efficient and robust distillation from a stronger teacher model. Moreover, considering that samples vary in difficulty, CMKD dynamically adjusts the weights of the Pearson-based loss and Spearman-based loss. CMKD is simple yet practical, and extensive experiments demonstrate that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art performance on CIRAR-100 and ImageNet, and adapts well to various teacher architectures, sizes, and other KD methods.


DRUPI: Dataset Reduction Using Privileged Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dataset reduction (DR) seeks to select or distill samples from large datasets into smaller subsets while preserving performance on target tasks. Existing methods primarily focus on pruning or synthesizing data in the same format as the original dataset, typically the input data and corresponding labels. However, in DR settings, we find it is possible to synthesize more information beyond the data-label pair as an additional learning target to facilitate model training. In this paper, we introduce Dataset Reduction Using Privileged Information (DRUPI), which enriches DR by synthesizing privileged information alongside the reduced dataset. This privileged information can take the form of feature labels or attention labels, providing auxiliary supervision to improve model learning. Our findings reveal that effective feature labels must balance between being overly discriminative and excessively diverse, with a moderate level proving optimal for improving the reduced dataset's efficacy. Extensive experiments on ImageNet, CIFAR-10/100, and Tiny ImageNet demonstrate that DRUPI integrates seamlessly with existing dataset reduction methods, offering significant performance gains. The code will be released after the paper is accepted. Dataset Reduction (DR) has attracted considerable attention in recent years, with the primary aim of compressing large datasets into smaller subsets while maintaining comparable statistical performance. Existing methods for DR can be broadly classified into two main categories: coreset selection and dataset distillation. In typical real-world scenarios, training models for target tasks is generally constrained to input data (e.g., images) and their corresponding labels, as these are the most readily available elements.


Generating Origin-Destination Matrices in Neural Spatial Interaction Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Agent-based models (ABMs) are proliferating as decision-making tools across policy areas in transportation, economics, and epidemiology. In these models, a central object of interest is the discrete origin-destination matrix which captures spatial interactions and agent trip counts between locations. Existing approaches resort to continuous approximations of this matrix and subsequent ad-hoc discretisations in order to perform ABM simulation and calibration. This impedes conditioning on partially observed summary statistics, fails to explore the multimodal matrix distribution over a discrete combinatorial support, and incurs discretisation errors. To address these challenges, we introduce a computationally efficient framework that scales linearly with the number of origin-destination pairs, operates directly on the discrete combinatorial space, and learns the agents' trip intensity through a neural differential equation that embeds spatial interactions. Our approach outperforms the prior art in terms of reconstruction error and ground truth matrix coverage, at a fraction of the computational cost. We demonstrate these benefits in large-scale spatial mobility ABMs in Cambridge, UK and Washington, DC, USA.