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 Statistical Learning


Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent rapid development of well-designed and powerful machine learning (ML) models has significantly transformed our lives. However, the success of these models is often evaluated based on the accuracy of their predictions, which, while important, is not sufficient in many real-world scenarios. In high-stakes applications, it is equally critical to assess the uncertainty of model outputs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has long been a central problem in fields like statistics and ML. Several well-established methods, such as Bayesian inference and resampling techniques, have been widely adopted to address UQ. However, Bayesian posterior intervals are only valid if the parametric assumptions of the model are correctly specified, which may not always be the case in practical applications.


Information Discovery in e-Commerce

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Electronic commerce, or e-commerce, is the buying and selling of goods and services, or the transmitting of funds or data online. E-commerce platforms come in many kinds, with global players such as Amazon, Airbnb, Alibaba, eBay and platforms targeting specific geographic regions. Information retrieval has a natural role to play in e-commerce, especially in connecting people to goods and services. Information discovery in e-commerce concerns different types of search (e.g., exploratory search vs. lookup tasks), recommender systems, and natural language processing in e-commerce portals. The rise in popularity of e-commerce sites has made research on information discovery in e-commerce an increasingly active research area. This is witnessed by an increase in publications and dedicated workshops in this space. Methods for information discovery in e-commerce largely focus on improving the effectiveness of e-commerce search and recommender systems, on enriching and using knowledge graphs to support e-commerce, and on developing innovative question answering and bot-based solutions that help to connect people to goods and services. In this survey, an overview is given of the fundamental infrastructure, algorithms, and technical solutions for information discovery in e-commerce. The topics covered include user behavior and profiling, search, recommendation, and language technology in e-commerce.


An interdisciplinary exploration of trade-offs between energy, privacy and accuracy aspects of data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The digital era has raised many societal challenges, including ICT's rising energy consumption and protecting privacy of personal data processing. This paper considers both aspects in relation to machine learning accuracy in an interdisciplinary exploration. We first present a method to measure the effects of privacy-enhancing techniques on data utility and energy consumption. The environmental-privacy-accuracy trade-offs are discovered through an experimental set-up. We subsequently take a storytelling approach to translate these technical findings to experts in non-ICT fields. We draft two examples for a governmental and auditing setting to contextualise our results. Ultimately, users face the task of optimising their data processing operations in a trade-off between energy, privacy, and accuracy considerations where the impact of their decisions is context-sensitive.


Provable Convergence and Limitations of Geometric Tempering for Langevin Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sampling from a target distribution ฯ€ whose density is known up to a normalizing constant is a challenging problem in statistics and machine learning, and is currently the subject of intense interest due to applications in Bayesian statistics [19] and energy-based models in deep learning [68], among other areas. In these settings, the normalizing constant of the target distribution ฯ€ is typically intractable, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms [58, 57] are commonly used to generate Markov chains in the ambient space, whose law eventually approximates the target distribution. Among MCMC algorithms, the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA), which corresponds to a time discretization of a Langevin diffusion process, has attracted considerable attention due to its simplicity, theoretical grounding, and utility in practice [59, 76, 23, 66]. For example, ULA can be proven to converge quickly when the target distribution ฯ€ is smooth and strongly log-concave [23]. However, many cases in practice require to sample from distributions which are not log-concave, and indeed potentially even multi-modal [54, 82]. In such settings, the convergence of ULA is governed by functional inequalities which effectively quantify the convexity, or lack thereof, of the target distribution [75]. Nonetheless, truly multi-modal target distributions generally have poor functional inequalities, thus leading to weak convergence guarantees for ULA. This phenomenon is not merely a theoretical artifact, and it is wellknown amongst practitioners that when sampling from multi-modal distributions, algorithms based on ULA can get stuck in local modes and suffer from slow convergence [20]. Tempering or annealing is a popular technique [51, 27, 69] to overcome the deficiencies of ULA and other MCMC methods in the multi-modal setting.


Learning Orthogonal Multi-Index Models: A Fine-Grained Information Exponent Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The information exponent (Ben Arous et al. [2021]) -- which is equivalent to the lowest degree in the Hermite expansion of the link function for Gaussian single-index models -- has played an important role in predicting the sample complexity of online stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in various learning tasks. In this work, we demonstrate that, for multi-index models, focusing solely on the lowest degree can miss key structural details of the model and result in suboptimal rates. Specifically, we consider the task of learning target functions of form $f_*(\mathbf{x}) = \sum_{k=1}^{P} \phi(\mathbf{v}_k^* \cdot \mathbf{x})$, where $P \ll d$, the ground-truth directions $\{ \mathbf{v}_k^* \}_{k=1}^P$ are orthonormal, and only the second and $2L$-th Hermite coefficients of the link function $\phi$ can be nonzero. Based on the theory of information exponent, when the lowest degree is $2L$, recovering the directions requires $d^{2L-1}\mathrm{poly}(P)$ samples, and when the lowest degree is $2$, only the relevant subspace (not the exact directions) can be recovered due to the rotational invariance of the second-order terms. In contrast, we show that by considering both second- and higher-order terms, we can first learn the relevant space via the second-order terms, and then the exact directions using the higher-order terms, and the overall sample and complexity of online SGD is $d \mathrm{poly}(P)$.


Structured Regularization for Constrained Optimization on the SPD Manifold

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Matrix-valued optimization tasks, including those involving symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, arise in a wide range of applications in machine learning, data science and statistics. Classically, such problems are solved via constrained Euclidean optimization, where the domain is viewed as a Euclidean space and the structure of the matrices (e.g., positive definiteness) enters as constraints. More recently, geometric approaches that leverage parametrizations of the problem as unconstrained tasks on the corresponding matrix manifold have been proposed. While they exhibit algorithmic benefits in many settings, they cannot directly handle additional constraints, such as inequality or sparsity constraints. A remedy comes in the form of constrained Riemannian optimization methods, notably, Riemannian Frank-Wolfe and Projected Gradient Descent. However, both algorithms require potentially expensive subroutines that can introduce computational bottlenecks in practise. To mitigate these shortcomings, we introduce a class of structured regularizers, based on symmetric gauge functions, which allow for solving constrained optimization on the SPD manifold with faster unconstrained methods. We show that our structured regularizers can be chosen to preserve or induce desirable structure, in particular convexity and "difference of convex" structure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in numerical experiments.


On Goodhart's law, with an application to value alignment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

``When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'', this adage is known as {\it Goodhart's law}. In this paper, we investigate formally this law and prove that it critically depends on the tail distribution of the discrepancy between the true goal and the measure that is optimized. Discrepancies with long-tail distributions favor a Goodhart's law, that is, the optimization of the measure can have a counter-productive effect on the goal. We provide a formal setting to assess Goodhart's law by studying the asymptotic behavior of the correlation between the goal and the measure, as the measure is optimized. Moreover, we introduce a distinction between a {\it weak} Goodhart's law, when over-optimizing the metric is useless for the true goal, and a {\it strong} Goodhart's law, when over-optimizing the metric is harmful for the true goal. A distinction which we prove to depend on the tail distribution. We stress the implications of this result to large-scale decision making and policies that are (and have to be) based on metrics, and propose numerous research directions to better assess the safety of such policies in general, and to the particularly concerning case where these policies are automated with algorithms.


Orthogonal Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with the Kullback-Leibler divergence

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Orthogonal nonnegative matrix factorization (ONMF) has become a standard approach for clustering. As far as we know, most works on ONMF rely on the Frobenius norm to assess the quality of the approximation. This paper presents a new model and algorithm for ONMF that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. As opposed to the Frobenius norm which assumes Gaussian noise, the KL divergence is the maximum likelihood estimator for Poisson-distributed data, which can model better sparse vectors of word counts in document data sets and photo counting processes in imaging. We develop an algorithm based on alternating optimization, KL-ONMF, and show that it performs favorably with the Frobenius-norm based ONMF for document classification and hyperspectral image unmixing.


Many-body Expansion Based Machine Learning Models for Octahedral Transition Metal Complexes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph-based machine learning models for materials properties show great potential to accelerate virtual high-throughput screening of large chemical spaces. However, in their simplest forms, graph-based models do not include any 3D information and are unable to distinguish stereoisomers such as those arising from different orderings of ligands around a metal center in coordination complexes. In this work we present a modification to revised autocorrelation descriptors, our molecular graph featurization method for machine learning various spin state dependent properties of octahedral transition metal complexes (TMCs). Inspired by analytical semi-empirical models for TMCs, the new modeling strategy is based on the many-body expansion (MBE) and allows one to tune the captured stereoisomer information by changing the truncation order of the MBE. We present the necessary modifications to include this approach in two commonly used machine learning methods, kernel ridge regression and feed-forward neural networks. On a test set composed of all possible isomers of binary transition metal complexes, the best MBE models achieve mean absolute errors of 2.75 kcal/mol on spin-splitting energies and 0.26 eV on frontier orbital energy gaps, a 30-40% reduction in error compared to models based on our previous approach. We also observe improved generalization to previously unseen ligands where the best-performing models exhibit mean absolute errors of 4.00 kcal/mol (i.e., a 0.73 kcal/mol reduction) on the spin-splitting energies and 0.53 eV (i.e., a 0.10 eV reduction) on the frontier orbital energy gaps. Because the new approach incorporates insights from electronic structure theory, such as ligand additivity relationships, these models exhibit systematic generalization from homoleptic to heteroleptic complexes, allowing for efficient screening of TMC search spaces.


Regularized EM Algorithms: A Unified Framework and Statistical Guarantees

Neural Information Processing Systems

Latent models are a fundamental modeling tool in machine learning applications, but they present significant computational and analytical challenges. The popular EM algorithm and its variants, is a much used algorithmic tool; yet our rigorous understanding of its performance is highly incomplete. Recently, work in [1] has demonstrated that for an important class of problems, EM exhibits linear local convergence. In the high-dimensional setting, however, the M-step may not be well defined. We address precisely this setting through a unified treatment using regularization.