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 Statistical Learning


Interpreting Inflammation Prediction Model via Tag-based Cohort Explanation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One significant application is in nutrition science, where ML models can provide dietary recommendations, detect food quality and safety issues during production, and surveil public health and epidemiology. However, the complex and often opaque nature of these models presents challenges in understanding and trusting their predictions. To address these issues, explainability techniques have garnered considerable interest, aiming to make ML models more interpretable and transparent. Explainability can be approached from different perspectives, including local explanations that focus on individual predictions and global explanations that provide insights into the overall behavior of the model. However, there is a growing need for intermediate-level explanations that balance these two extremes, offering contextually relevant insights that are both comprehensive and specific (Sokol and Flach, 2020; Arrieta et al., 2020; Adadi and Berrada, 2018). Cohort explainability, also referred to as subgroup explainability, explains model predictions by analyzing groups of instances with shared characteristics and emerges as a promising solution to this challenge.


Stochastic Flow Matching for Resolving Small-Scale Physics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditioning diffusion and flow models have proven effective for super-resolving small-scale details in natural images. However, in physical sciences such as weather, super-resolving small-scale details poses significant challenges due to: (i) misalignment between input and output distributions (i.e., solutions to distinct partial differential equations (PDEs) follow different trajectories), (ii) multi-scale dynamics, deterministic dynamics at large scales vs. stochastic at small scales, and (iii) limited data, increasing the risk of overfitting. To address these challenges, we propose encoding the inputs to a latent base distribution that is closer to the target distribution, followed by flow matching to generate small-scale physics. The encoder captures the deterministic components, while flow matching adds stochastic small-scale details. To account for uncertainty in the deterministic part, we inject noise into the encoder's output using an adaptive noise scaling mechanism, which is dynamically adjusted based on maximum-likelihood estimates of the encoder's predictions. We conduct extensive experiments on both the realworld CWA weather dataset and the PDE-based Kolmogorov dataset, with the CWA task involving super-resolving the weather variables for the region of Taiwan from 25 km to 2 km scales. Our results show that the proposed stochastic flow matching (SFM) framework significantly outperforms existing methods such as conditional diffusion and flows. Resolving small-scale physics is crucial in many scientific applications (Wilby et al., 1998; Rampal et al., 2022; 2024). For instance, in the atmospheric sciences, accurately capturing small-scale dynamics is essential for local planning and disaster mitigation. The success of conditional diffusion models in super-resolving natural images and videos (Song et al., 2021; Batzolis et al., 2021; Hoogeboom et al., 2023) has recently been extended to super-resolving small-scale physics (Aich et al., 2024; Ling et al., 2024). However, this task faces significant challenges: (C1) Input and target data are often spatially misaligned due to differing PDE solutions operating at various resolutions, leading to divergent trajectories. Additionally, the input and target variables (channels) often represent different physical quantities, causing further misalignment. Few efforts have been made to directly address these challenges in generative learning. Prior work typically relies on residual learning approaches (Mardani et al., 2023; Zhao et al., 2021).


Predicting Breast Cancer Survival: A Survival Analysis Approach Using Log Odds and Clinical Variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Breast cancer remains a significant global health challenge, with prognosis and treatment decisions largely dependent on clinical characteristics. Accurate prediction of patient outcomes is crucial for personalized treatment strategies. This study employs survival analysis techniques, including Cox proportional hazards and parametric survival models, to enhance the prediction of the log odds of survival in breast cancer patients. Clinical variables such as tumor size, hormone receptor status, HER2 status, age, and treatment history were analyzed to assess their impact on survival outcomes. Data from 1557 breast cancer patients were obtained from a publicly available dataset provided by the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. This dataset was preprocessed and analyzed using both univariate and multivariate approaches to evaluate survival outcomes. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to visualize survival probabilities, while the Cox proportional hazards model identified key risk factors influencing mortality. The results showed that older age, larger tumor size, and HER2-positive status were significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality. In contrast, estrogen receptor positivity and breast-conserving surgery were linked to better survival outcomes. The findings suggest that integrating these clinical variables into predictive models improvesthe accuracy of survival predictions, helping to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from more aggressive interventions. This study demonstrates the potential of survival analysis in optimizing breast cancer care, particularly in resource-limited settings. Future research should focus on integrating genomic data and real-world clinical outcomes to further refine these models.


Auditing and Enforcing Conditional Fairness via Optimal Transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditional demographic parity (CDP) is a measure of the demographic parity of a predictive model or decision process when conditioning on an additional feature or set of features. Many algorithmic fairness techniques exist to target demographic parity, but CDP is much harder to achieve, particularly when the conditioning variable has many levels and/or when the model outputs are continuous. The problem of auditing and enforcing CDP is understudied in the literature. In light of this, we propose novel measures of {conditional demographic disparity (CDD)} which rely on statistical distances borrowed from the optimal transport literature. We further design and evaluate regularization-based approaches based on these CDD measures. Our methods, \fairbit{} and \fairlp{}, allow us to target CDP even when the conditioning variable has many levels. When model outputs are continuous, our methods target full equality of the conditional distributions, unlike other methods that only consider first moments or related proxy quantities. We validate the efficacy of our approaches on real-world datasets.


Linguistically Grounded Analysis of Language Models using Shapley Head Values

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding how linguistic knowledge is encoded in language models is crucial for improving their generalisation capabilities. In this paper, we investigate the processing of morphosyntactic phenomena, by leveraging a recently proposed method for probing language models via Shapley Head Values (SHVs). Using the English language BLiMP dataset, we test our approach on two widely used models, BERT and RoBERTa, and compare how linguistic constructions such as anaphor agreement and filler-gap dependencies are handled. Through quantitative pruning and qualitative clustering analysis, we demonstrate that attention heads responsible for processing related linguistic phenomena cluster together. Our results show that SHV-based attributions reveal distinct patterns across both models, providing insights into how language models organize and process linguistic information. These findings support the hypothesis that language models learn subnetworks corresponding to linguistic theory, with potential implications for cross-linguistic model analysis and interpretability in Natural Language Processing (NLP).


Fairness-Enhancing Ensemble Classification in Water Distribution Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As relevant examples such as the future criminal detection software [1] show, fairness of AI-based and social domain affecting decision support tools constitutes an important area of research. In this contribution, we investigate the applications of AI to socioeconomically relevant infrastructures such as those of water distribution networks (WDNs), where fairness issues have yet to gain a foothold. To establish the notion of fairness in this domain, we propose an appropriate definition of protected groups and group fairness in WDNs as an extension of existing definitions. We demonstrate that typical methods for the detection of leakages in WDNs are unfair in this sense. Further, we thus propose a remedy to increase the fairness which can be applied even to non-differentiable ensemble classification methods as used in this context.


Improving Discrete Optimisation Via Decoupled Straight-Through Gumbel-Softmax

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discrete representations play a crucial role in many deep learning architectures, yet their non-differentiable nature poses significant challenges for gradient-based optimization. To address this issue, various gradient estimators have been developed, including the Straight-Through Gumbel-Softmax (ST-GS) estimator, which combines the Straight-Through Estimator (STE) and the Gumbel-based reparameterization trick. However, the performance of ST-GS is highly sensitive to temperature, with its selection often compromising gradient fidelity. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective extension to ST-GS by employing decoupled temperatures for forward and backward passes, which we refer to as "Decoupled ST-GS". We show that our approach significantly enhances the original ST-GS through extensive experiments across multiple tasks and datasets. We further investigate the impact of our method on gradient fidelity from multiple perspectives, including the gradient gap and the bias-variance trade-off of estimated gradients. Our findings contribute to the ongoing effort to improve discrete optimization in deep learning, offering a practical solution that balances simplicity and effectiveness.


Single-Timescale Multi-Sequence Stochastic Approximation Without Fixed Point Smoothness: Theories and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic approximation (SA) that involves multiple coupled sequences, known as multiple-sequence SA (MSSA), finds diverse applications in the fields of signal processing and machine learning. However, existing theoretical understandings {of} MSSA are limited: the multi-timescale analysis implies a slow convergence rate, whereas the single-timescale analysis relies on a stringent fixed point smoothness assumption. This paper establishes tighter single-timescale analysis for MSSA, without assuming smoothness of the fixed points. Our theoretical findings reveal that, when all involved operators are strongly monotone, MSSA converges at a rate of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(K^{-1})$, where $K$ denotes the total number of iterations. In addition, when all involved operators are strongly monotone except for the main one, MSSA converges at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(K^{-\frac{1}{2}})$. These theoretical findings align with those established for single-sequence SA. Applying these theoretical findings to bilevel optimization and communication-efficient distributed learning offers relaxed assumptions and/or simpler algorithms with performance guarantees, as validated by numerical experiments.


Learning Graph Quantized Tokenizers for Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformers serve as the backbone architectures of Foundational Models, where a domain-specific tokenizer helps them adapt to various domains. Graph Transformers (GTs) have recently emerged as a leading model in geometric deep learning, outperforming Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in various graph learning tasks. However, the development of tokenizers for graphs has lagged behind other modalities, with existing approaches relying on heuristics or GNNs co-trained with Transformers. To address this, we introduce GQT (Graph Quantized Tokenizer), which decouples tokenizer training from Transformer training by leveraging multitask graph self-supervised learning, yielding robust and generalizable graph tokens. Furthermore, the GQT utilizes Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to learn hierarchical discrete tokens, resulting in significantly reduced memory requirements and improved generalization capabilities. By combining the GQT with token modulation, a Transformer encoder achieves state-of-the-art performance on 16 out of 18 benchmarks, including large-scale homophilic and heterophilic datasets. Unlike message-passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which rely on strong locality inductive biases (Battaglia et al., 2018; Veličković et al., 2018; Hou et al., 2020; Hamilton et al., 2017a; Kipf & Welling, 2017), GTs are inherently more expressive due to their ability to capture long-range interactions between nodes (Ma et al., 2023). This is particularly beneficial in heterophilous settings where local alignment does not hold (Fu et al., 2024). GTs possess an expressive power at least equivalent to the 2-Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) isomorphism test (Kim et al., 2022), which is sufficient for most real-world tasks (Zopf, 2022). This surpasses the expressive power of message-passing GNNs, which are limited to the 1-WL test (Ying et al., 2021a).


Computational Approaches to Arabic-English Code-Switching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a vital computational method for addressing language processing, analysis, and generation. NLP tasks form the core of many daily applications, from automatic text correction to speech recognition. While significant research has focused on NLP tasks for the English language, less attention has been given to Modern Standard Arabic and Dialectal Arabic. Globalization has also contributed to the rise of Code-Switching (CS), where speakers mix languages within conversations and even within individual words (intra-word CS). This is especially common in Arab countries, where people often switch between dialects or between dialects and a foreign language they master. CS between Arabic and English is frequent in Egypt, especially on social media. Consequently, a significant amount of code-switched content can be found online. Such code-switched data needs to be investigated and analyzed for several NLP tasks to tackle the challenges of this multilingual phenomenon and Arabic language challenges. No work has been done before for several integral NLP tasks on Arabic-English CS data. In this work, we focus on the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task and other tasks that help propose a solution for the NER task on CS data, e.g., Language Identification. This work addresses this gap by proposing and applying state-of-the-art techniques for Modern Standard Arabic and Arabic-English NER. We have created the first annotated CS Arabic-English corpus for the NER task. Also, we apply two enhancement techniques to improve the NER tagger on CS data using CS contextual embeddings and data augmentation techniques. All methods showed improvements in the performance of the NER taggers on CS data. Finally, we propose several intra-word language identification approaches to determine the language type of a mixed text and identify whether it is a named entity or not.