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 Statistical Learning


Diffusion-based Semi-supervised Spectral Algorithm for Regression on Manifolds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel diffusion-based spectral algorithm to tackle regression analysis on high-dimensional data, particularly data embedded within lower-dimensional manifolds. Traditional spectral algorithms often fall short in such contexts, primarily due to the reliance on predetermined kernel functions, which inadequately address the complex structures inherent in manifold-based data. By employing graph Laplacian approximation, our method uses the local estimation property of heat kernel, offering an adaptive, data-driven approach to overcome this obstacle. Another distinct advantage of our algorithm lies in its semi-supervised learning framework, enabling it to fully use the additional unlabeled data. This ability enhances the performance by allowing the algorithm to dig the spectrum and curvature of the data manifold, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the dataset. Moreover, our algorithm performs in an entirely data-driven manner, operating directly within the intrinsic manifold structure of the data, without requiring any predefined manifold information. We provide a convergence analysis of our algorithm. Our findings reveal that the algorithm achieves a convergence rate that depends solely on the intrinsic dimension of the underlying manifold, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality associated with the higher ambient dimension.


Contractivity and linear convergence in bilinear saddle-point problems: An operator-theoretic approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the convex-concave bilinear saddle-point problem $\min_x \max_y f(x) + y^\top Ax - g(y)$, where both, only one, or none of the functions $f$ and $g$ are strongly convex, and suitable rank conditions on the matrix $A$ hold. The solution of this problem is at the core of many machine learning tasks. By employing tools from operator theory, we systematically prove the contractivity (in turn, the linear convergence) of several first-order primal-dual algorithms, including the Chambolle-Pock method. Our approach results in concise and elegant proofs, and it yields new convergence guarantees and tighter bounds compared to known results.


A Review of the Non-Invasive Techniques for Monitoring Different Aspects of Sleep

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quality sleep is very important for a healthy life. Nowadays, many people around the world are not getting enough sleep which is having negative impacts on their lifestyles. Studies are being conducted for sleep monitoring and have now become an important tool for understanding sleep behavior. The gold standard method for sleep analysis is polysomnography (PSG) conducted in a clinical environment but this method is both expensive and complex for long-term use. With the advancements in the field of sensors and the introduction of off-the-shelf technologies, unobtrusive solutions are becoming common as alternatives for in-home sleep monitoring. Various solutions have been proposed using both wearable and non-wearable methods which are cheap and easy to use for in-home sleep monitoring. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of the latest research works (2015 and after) conducted in various categories of sleep monitoring including sleep stage classification, sleep posture recognition, sleep disorders detection, and vital signs monitoring. We review the latest works done using the non-invasive approach and cover both wearable and non-wearable methods. We discuss the design approaches and key attributes of the work presented and provide an extensive analysis based on 10 key factors, to give a comprehensive overview of the recent developments and trends in all four categories of sleep monitoring. We also present some publicly available datasets for different categories of sleep monitoring. In the end, we discuss several open issues and provide future research directions in the area of sleep monitoring.


Annealed Stein Variational Gradient Descent for Improved Uncertainty Estimation in Full-Waveform Inversion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, Full-Waveform Inversion (FWI) has been extensively used to derive high-resolution subsurface velocity models from seismic data. However, due to the nonlinearity and ill-posed nature of the problem, FWI requires a good starting model to avoid producing non-physical solutions. Moreover, conventional optimization methods fail to quantify the uncertainty associated with the recovered solution, which is critical for decision-making processes. Bayesian inference offers an alternative approach as it directly or indirectly evaluates the posterior probability density function. For example, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods generate multiple sample chains to characterize the solution's uncertainty. Despite their ability to theoretically handle any form of distribution, MCMC methods require many sampling steps; this limits their usage in high-dimensional problems with computationally intensive forward modeling, as is the FWI case. Variational Inference (VI), on the other hand, provides an approximate solution to the posterior distribution in the form of a parametric or non-parametric proposal distribution. Among the various algorithms used in VI, Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is recognized for its ability to iteratively refine a set of samples to approximate the target distribution. However, mode and variance-collapse issues affect SVGD in high-dimensional inverse problems. This study aims to improve the performance of SVGD within the context of FWI by utilizing, for the first time, an annealed variant of SVGD and combining it with a multi-scale strategy. Additionally, we demonstrate that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can be used to evaluate the performance of the optimization process. Clustering techniques are also employed to provide more rigorous and meaningful statistical analysis of the particles in the presence of multi-modal distributions.


A Statistical Machine Learning Approach for Adapting Reduced-Order Models using Projected Gaussian Process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) computes the optimal basis modes that span a low-dimensional subspace where the Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) reside. Because a governing equation is often parameterized by a set of parameters, challenges immediately arise when one would like to investigate how systems behave differently over the parameter space (in design, control, uncertainty quantification and real-time operations). In this case, the POD basis needs to be updated so as to adapt ROM that accurately captures the variation of a system's behavior over its parameter space. This paper proposes a Projected Gaussian Process (pGP) and formulate the problem of adapting POD basis as a supervised statistical learning problem, for which the goal is to learn a mapping from the parameter space to the Grassmann Manifold that contains the optimal vector subspaces. A mapping is firstly found between the Euclidean space and the horizontal space of an orthogonal matrix that spans a reference subspace in the Grassmann Manifold. Then, a second mapping from the horizontal space to the Grassmann Manifold is established through the Exponential/Logarithm maps between the manifold and its tangent space. Finally, given a new parameter, the conditional distribution of a vector can be found in the Euclidean space using the Gaussian Process (GP) regression, and such a distribution is projected to the Grassmann Manifold that yields the optimal subspace for the new parameter. The proposed statistical learning approach allows us to optimally estimate model parameters given data (i.e., the prediction/interpolation becomes problem-specific), and quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed pGP for adapting POD basis against parameter changes.


Hiformer: Hybrid Frequency Feature Enhancement Inverted Transformer for Long-Term Wind Power Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing severity of climate change necessitates an urgent transition to renewable energy sources, making the large-scale adoption of wind energy crucial for mitigating environmental impact. However, the inherent uncertainty of wind power poses challenges for grid stability, underscoring the need for accurate wind energy prediction models to enable effective power system planning and operation. While many existing studies on wind power prediction focus on short-term forecasting, they often overlook the importance of long-term predictions. Long-term wind power forecasting is essential for effective power grid dispatch and market transactions, as it requires careful consideration of weather features such as wind speed and direction, which directly influence power output. Consequently, methods designed for short-term predictions may lead to inaccurate results and high computational costs in long-term settings. To adress these limitations, we propose a novel approach called Hybrid Frequency Feature Enhancement Inverted Transformer (Hiformer). Hiformer introduces a unique structure that integrates signal decomposition technology with weather feature extraction technique to enhance the modeling of correlations between meteorological conditions and wind power generation. Additionally, Hiformer employs an encoder-only architecture, which reduces the computational complexity associated with long-term wind power forecasting. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, Hiformer: (i) can improve the prediction accuracy by up to 52.5\%; and (ii) can reduce computational time by up to 68.5\%.


Estimating the Causal Effects of T Cell Receptors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A central question in human immunology is how a patient's repertoire of T cells impacts disease. Here, we introduce a method to infer the causal effects of T cell receptor (TCR) sequences on patient outcomes using observational TCR repertoire sequencing data and clinical outcomes data. Our approach corrects for unobserved confounders, such as a patient's environment and life history, by using the patient's immature, pre-selection TCR repertoire. The pre-selection repertoire can be estimated from nonproductive TCR data, which is widely available. It is generated by a randomized mutational process, V(D)J recombination, which provides a natural experiment. We show formally how to use the pre-selection repertoire to draw causal inferences, and develop a scalable neural-network estimator for our identification formula. Our method produces an estimate of the effect of interventions that add a specific TCR sequence to patient repertoires. As a demonstration, we use it to analyze the effects of TCRs on COVID-19 severity, uncovering potentially therapeutic TCRs that are (1) observed in patients, (2) bind SARS-CoV-2 antigens in vitro and (3) have strong positive effects on clinical outcomes.


Analyzing Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting via Manifold Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformer models have consistently achieved remarkable results in various domains such as natural language processing and computer vision. However, despite ongoing research efforts to better understand these models, the field still lacks a comprehensive understanding. This is particularly true for deep time series forecasting methods, where analysis and understanding work is relatively limited. Time series data, unlike image and text information, can be more challenging to interpret and analyze. To address this, we approach the problem from a manifold learning perspective, assuming that the latent representations of time series forecasting models lie next to a low-dimensional manifold. In our study, we focus on analyzing the geometric features of these latent data manifolds, including intrinsic dimension and principal curvatures. Our findings reveal that deep transformer models exhibit similar geometric behavior across layers, and these geometric features are correlated with model performance. Additionally, we observe that untrained models initially have different structures, but they rapidly converge during training. By leveraging our geometric analysis and differentiable tools, we can potentially design new and improved deep forecasting neural networks. This approach complements existing analysis studies and contributes to a better understanding of transformer models in the context of time series forecasting. Code is released at https://github.com/azencot-group/GATLM.


GBCT: An Efficient and Adaptive Granular-Ball Clustering Algorithm for Complex Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional clustering algorithms often focus on the most fine-grained information and achieve clustering by calculating the distance between each pair of data points or implementing other calculations based on points. This way is not inconsistent with the cognitive mechanism of "global precedence" in human brain, resulting in those methods' bad performance in efficiency, generalization ability and robustness. To address this problem, we propose a new clustering algorithm called granular-ball clustering (GBCT) via granular-ball computing. Firstly, GBCT generates a smaller number of granular-balls to represent the original data, and forms clusters according to the relationship between granular-balls, instead of the traditional point relationship. At the same time, its coarse-grained characteristics are not susceptible to noise, and the algorithm is efficient and robust; besides, as granular-balls can fit various complex data, GBCT performs much better in non-spherical data sets than other traditional clustering methods. The completely new coarse granularity representation method of GBCT and cluster formation mode can also used to improve other traditional methods.


Human Action Anticipation: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting future human behavior is an increasingly popular topic in computer vision, driven by the interest in applications such as autonomous vehicles, digital assistants and human-robot interactions. The literature on behavior prediction spans various tasks, including action anticipation, activity forecasting, intent prediction, goal prediction, and so on. Our survey aims to tie together this fragmented literature, covering recent technical innovations as well as the development of new large-scale datasets for model training and evaluation. We also summarize the widely-used metrics for different tasks and provide a comprehensive performance comparison of existing approaches on eleven action anticipation datasets. This survey serves as not only a reference for contemporary methodologies in action anticipation, but also a guideline for future research direction of this evolving landscape.