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 Statistical Learning


All models are wrong, some are useful: Model Selection with Limited Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce MODEL SELECTOR, a framework for label-efficient selection of pretrained classifiers. Given a pool of unlabeled target data, MODEL SELECTOR samples a small subset of highly informative examples for labeling, in order to efficiently identify the best pretrained model for deployment on this target dataset. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that MODEL SELECTOR drastically reduces the need for labeled data while consistently picking the best or near-best performing model. Across 18 model collections on 16 different datasets, comprising over 1,500 pretrained models, MODEL SELECTOR reduces the labeling cost by up to 94.15% to identify the best model compared to the cost of the strongest baseline. Our results further highlight the robustness of MODEL SELECTOR in model selection, as it reduces the labeling cost by up to 72.41% when selecting a near-best model, whose accuracy is only within 1% of the best model.


Estimating the Spectral Moments of the Kernel Integral Operator from Finite Sample Matrices

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Analyzing the structure of sampled features from an input data distribution is challenging when constrained by limited measurements in both the number of inputs and features. Traditional approaches often rely on the eigenvalue spectrum of the sample covariance matrix derived from finite measurement matrices; however, these spectra are sensitive to the size of the measurement matrix, leading to biased insights. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm that provides unbiased estimates of the spectral moments of the kernel integral operator in the limit of infinite inputs and features from finitely sampled measurement matrices. Our method, based on dynamic programming, is efficient and capable of estimating the moments of the operator spectrum. We demonstrate the accuracy of our estimator on radial basis function (RBF) kernels, highlighting its consistency with the theoretical spectra. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility and robustness of our method in understanding the geometry of learned representations in neural networks.


LoRANN: Low-Rank Matrix Factorization for Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search is a key component in many modern machine learning pipelines; recent use cases include retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and vector databases. Clustering-based ANN algorithms, that use score computation methods based on product quantization (PQ), are often used in industrial-scale applications due to their scalability and suitability for distributed and disk-based implementations. However, they have slower query times than the leading graph-based ANN algorithms. In this work, we propose a new supervised score computation method based on the observation that inner product approximation is a multivariate (multi-output) regression problem that can be solved efficiently by reduced-rank regression. Our experiments show that on modern high-dimensional data sets, the proposed reduced-rank regression (RRR) method is superior to PQ in both query latency and memory usage. We also introduce LoRANN, a clustering-based ANN library that leverages the proposed score computation method. LoRANN is competitive with the leading graph-based algorithms and outperforms the state-of-the-art GPU ANN methods on high-dimensional data sets.


Tuning-free coreset Markov chain Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A Bayesian coreset is a small, weighted subset of a data set that replaces the full data during inference to reduce computational cost. The state-of-the-art coreset construction algorithm, Coreset Markov chain Monte Carlo (Coreset MCMC), uses draws from an adaptive Markov chain targeting the coreset posterior to train the coreset weights via stochastic gradient optimization. However, the quality of the constructed coreset, and thus the quality of its posterior approximation, is sensitive to the stochastic optimization learning rate. In this work, we propose a learning-rate-free stochastic gradient optimization procedure, Hot-start Distance over Gradient (Hot DoG), Figure 1: Relative Coreset MCMC posterior approximation for training coreset weights in Coreset MCMC error (average squared coordinate-wise z-score) without user tuning effort. Empirical results using ADAM with different learning rates versus the demonstrate that Hot DoG provides higher proposed Hot DoG method (with fixed r = 0.001). Median quality posterior approximations than other values after 200,000 optimization iterations across learning-rate-free stochastic gradient methods, 10 trials are used for the relative comparison for a variety and performs competitively to optimallytuned of datasets, models, and coreset sizes.


Less Discriminatory Alternative and Interpretable XGBoost Framework for Binary Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fair lending practices and model interpretability are crucial concerns in the financial industry, especially given the increasing use of complex machine learning models. In response to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) requirement to protect consumers against unlawful discrimination, we introduce LDA-XGB1, a novel less discriminatory alternative (LDA) machine learning model for fair and interpretable binary classification. LDA-XGB1 is developed through biobjective optimization that balances accuracy and fairness, with both objectives formulated using binning and information value. It leverages the predictive power and computational efficiency of XGBoost while ensuring inherent model interpretability, including the enforcement of monotonic constraints. We evaluate LDA-XGB1 on two datasets: SimuCredit, a simulated credit approval dataset, and COMPAS, a real-world recidivism prediction dataset. Our results demonstrate that LDA-XGB1 achieves an effective balance between predictive accuracy, fairness, and interpretability, often outperforming traditional fair lending models. This approach equips financial institutions with a powerful tool to meet regulatory requirements for fair lending while maintaining the advantages of advanced machine learning techniques.


A Causal Graph-Enhanced Gaussian Process Regression for Modeling Engine-out NOx

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The stringent regulatory requirements on nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from diesel compression ignition engines require accurate and reliable models for real-time monitoring and diagnostics. Although traditional methods such as physical sensors and virtual engine control module (ECM) sensors provide essential data, they are only used for estimation. Ubiquitous literature primarily focuses on deterministic models with little emphasis on capturing the uncertainties due to sensors. The lack of probabilistic frameworks restricts the applicability of these models for robust diagnostics. The objective of this paper is to develop and validate a probabilistic model to predict engine-out NOx emissions using Gaussian process regression. Our approach is as follows. We employ three variants of Gaussian process models: the first with a standard radial basis function kernel with input window, the second incorporating a deep kernel using convolutional neural networks to capture temporal dependencies, and the third enriching the deep kernel with a causal graph derived via graph convolutional networks. The causal graph embeds physics knowledge into the learning process. All models are compared against a virtual ECM sensor using both quantitative and qualitative metrics. We conclude that our model provides an improvement in predictive performance when using an input window and a deep kernel structure. Even more compelling is the further enhancement achieved by the incorporation of a causal graph into the deep kernel. These findings are corroborated across different validation datasets.


Fully Stochastic Primal-dual Gradient Algorithm for Non-convex Optimization on Random Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic decentralized optimization algorithms often suffer from issues such as synchronization overhead and intermittent communication. This paper proposes a $\underline{\rm F}$ully $\underline{\rm S}$tochastic $\underline{\rm P}$rimal $\underline{\rm D}$ual gradient $\underline{\rm A}$lgorithm (FSPDA) that suggests an asynchronous decentralized procedure with (i) sparsified non-blocking communication on random undirected graphs and (ii) local stochastic gradient updates. FSPDA allows multiple local gradient steps to accelerate convergence to stationarity while finding a consensual solution with stochastic primal-dual updates. For problems with smooth (possibly non-convex) objective function, we show that FSPDA converges to an $\mathrm{\mathcal{O}( {\it \sigma /\sqrt{nT}} )}$-stationary solution after $\mathrm{\it T}$ iterations without assuming data heterogeneity. The performance of FSPDA is on par with state-of-the-art algorithms whose convergence depend on static graph and synchronous updates. To our best knowledge, FSPDA is the first asynchronous algorithm that converges exactly under the non-convex setting. Numerical experiments are presented to show the benefits of FSPDA.


We Augmented Whisper With kNN and You Won't Believe What Came Next

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Speech recognition performance varies by language, domain, and speaker characteristics such as accent, and fine-tuning a model on any of these categories may lead to catastrophic forgetting. $k$ nearest neighbor search ($k$NN), first proposed for neural sequence decoders for natural language generation (NLG) and machine translation (MT), is a non-parametric method that can instead adapt by building an external datastore that can then be searched during inference time, without training the underlying model. We show that Whisper, a transformer end-to-end speech model, benefits from $k$NN. We investigate the differences between the speech and text setups. We discuss implications for speaker adaptation, and analyze improvements by gender, accent, and age.


Optimizing Edge Offloading Decisions for Object Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in machine learning and hardware have produced embedded devices capable of performing real-time object detection with commendable accuracy. We consider a scenario in which embedded devices rely on an onboard object detector, but have the option to offload detection to a more powerful edge server when local accuracy is deemed too low. Resource constraints, however, limit the number of images that can be offloaded to the edge. Our goal is to identify which images to offload to maximize overall detection accuracy under those constraints. To that end, the paper introduces a reward metric designed to quantify potential accuracy improvements from offloading individual images, and proposes an efficient approach to make offloading decisions by estimating this reward based only on local detection results. The approach is computationally frugal enough to run on embedded devices, and empirical findings indicate that it outperforms existing alternatives in improving detection accuracy even when the fraction of offloaded images is small.


An Investigation on Machine Learning Predictive Accuracy Improvement and Uncertainty Reduction using VAE-based Data Augmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. Large amounts of data may be available for certain parts such as pipes, pumps and turbines, etc., due to large network of sensors, but not for many others, such as critical heat flux in thermal-hydraulics experiments, advanced materials qualification data like molten salts and multi-principal element alloys, etc. Particularly concerning is the lack of data for advanced reactor design and safety analysis, raising challenges for utilizing ML in licensing analyses of advanced nuclear reactors. In these cases, we need to move beyond "throw more data and re-train" at the problem, which is the common solution in areas such as computer vision and natural language processing that have access to "big data". One potential way to address the data scarcity issue is data augmentation using deep generative learning. Deep generative learning is an unsupervised ML technique that aims at discovering and learning the regularities or patterns in existing data using deep generative models (DGMs), in order to generate new samples that plausibly could have been drawn from the real dataset. DGMs are typically neural networks (NNs) trained to learn or approximate the underlying distribution of the training data. This enables them to generate synthetic samples that closely match the distribution of the original training data. By employing DGMs for data augmentation, one can significantly expand the training dataset for ML models to achieve better performance in other tasks, such as data-driven predictive ML models. Data augmentation with DGMs is still a relatively new research area in nuclear engineering, but has been studied for a few years in computer vision and natural language processing for datasets involving images, audios, videos, spoken words, etc.