Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ ground truth. In classification tasks, when only a usual set of test data is at hand, several authors suggested different metrics that can be computed from such test points while assessing the quality of quantified uncertainties. This paper investigates such metrics and proves that they are theoretically well-behaved and actually tied to some uncertainty ground truth which is easily interpretable in terms of model prediction trustworthiness ranking. Equipped with those new results, and given the applicability of those metrics in the usual supervised paradigm, we argue that our contributions will help promoting a broader use of UQ in deep learning.

It has recently been demonstrated empirically that in-context learning emerges in transformers when certain distributional properties are present in the training data, but this ability can also diminish upon further training. We provide a new theoretical understanding of these phenomena by identifying simplified distributional properties that give rise to the emergence and eventual disappearance of in-context learning. We do so by first analyzing a simplified model that uses a gating mechanism to choose between an in-weight and an in-context predictor. Through a combination of a generalization error and regret analysis we identify conditions where in-context and in-weight learning emerge. These theoretical findings are then corroborated experimentally by comparing the behaviour of a full transformer on the simplified distributions to that of the stylized model, demonstrating aligned results. We then extend the study to a full large language model, showing how fine-tuning on various collections of natural language prompts can elicit similar in-context and in-weight learning behaviour.

Grasping in cluttered scenes remains highly challenging for dexterous hands due to the scarcity of data. To address this problem, we present a large-scale synthetic benchmark, encompassing 1319 objects, 8270 scenes, and 427 million grasps. Beyond benchmarking, we also propose a novel two-stage grasping method that learns efficiently from data by using a diffusion model that conditions on local geometry. Our proposed generative method outperforms all baselines in simulation experiments. Furthermore, with the aid of test-time-depth restoration, our method demonstrates zero-shot sim-to-real transfer, attaining 90.7% real-world dexterous grasping success rate in cluttered scenes.

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring rules and calibration. For the case of imprecise probabilistic forecasts (sets of probabilities), such theory is still lacking. In this work, we therefore generalize proper scoring rules and calibration to the imprecise case. We develop these concepts as relative to data models and decision problems. As a consequence, the imprecision is embedded in a clear context. We establish a close link to the paradigm of (group) distributional robustness and in doing so provide new insights for it. We argue that proper scoring rules and calibration serve two distinct goals, which are aligned in the precise case, but intriguingly are not necessarily aligned in the imprecise case. The concept of decision-theoretic entropy plays a key role for both goals. Finally, we demonstrate the theoretical insights in machine learning practice, in particular we illustrate subtle pitfalls relating to the choice of loss function in distributional robustness.

Time series analysis has gained significant attention due to its critical applications in diverse fields such as healthcare, finance, and sensor networks. The complexity and non-stationarity of time series make it challenging to capture the interaction patterns across different timestamps. Current approaches struggle to model higher-order interactions within time series, and focus on learning temporal or spatial dependencies separately, which limits performance in downstream tasks. To address these gaps, we propose Higher-order Cross-structural Embedding Model for Time Series (High-TS), a novel framework that jointly models both temporal and spatial perspectives by combining multiscale Transformer with Topological Deep Learning (TDL). Meanwhile, High-TS utilizes contrastive learning to integrate these two structures for generating robust and discriminative representations. Extensive experiments show that High-TS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various time series tasks and demonstrate the importance of higher-order cross-structural information in improving model performance.

Multi-view clustering is an important machine learning task for multi-media data, encompassing various domains such as images, videos, and texts. Moreover, with the growing abundance of graph data, the significance of multi-view graph clustering (MVGC) has become evident. Most existing methods focus on graph neural networks (GNNs) to extract information from both graph structure and feature data to learn distinguishable node representations. However, traditional GNNs are designed with the assumption of homophilous graphs, making them unsuitable for widely prevalent heterophilous graphs. Several techniques have been introduced to enhance GNNs for heterophilous graphs. While these methods partially mitigate the heterophilous graph issue, they often neglect the advantages of traditional GNNs, such as their simplicity, interpretability, and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-view graph clustering method based on dual-optimized adaptive graph reconstruction, named DOAGC. It mainly aims to reconstruct the graph structure adapted to traditional GNNs to deal with heterophilous graph issues while maintaining the advantages of traditional GNNs. Specifically, we first develop an adaptive graph reconstruction mechanism that accounts for node correlation and original structural information. To further optimize the reconstruction graph, we design a dual optimization strategy and demonstrate the feasibility of our optimization strategy through mutual information theory. Numerous experiments demonstrate that DOAGC effectively mitigates the heterophilous graph problem.

After entering the era of big data, more and more companies build services with machine learning techniques. However, it is costly for companies to collect data and extract helpful handcraft features on their own. Although it is a way to combine with other companies' data for boosting the model's performance, this approach may be prohibited by laws. In other words, finding the balance between sharing data with others and keeping data from privacy leakage is a crucial topic worthy of close attention. This paper focuses on distributed data and conducts secure model-training tasks on a vertical federated learning scheme. Here, secure implies that the whole process is executed in the encrypted domain; therefore, the privacy concern is released.

In this study, we introduce Modular State-based Stackelberg Games (Mod-SbSG), a novel game structure developed for distributed self-learning in modular manufacturing systems. Mod-SbSG enhances cooperative decision-making among self-learning agents within production systems by integrating State-based Potential Games (SbPG) with Stackelberg games. This hierarchical structure assigns more important modules of the manufacturing system a first-mover advantage, while less important modules respond optimally to the leaders' decisions. This decision-making process differs from typical multi-agent learning algorithms in manufacturing systems, where decisions are made simultaneously. We provide convergence guarantees for the novel game structure and design learning algorithms to account for the hierarchical game structure. We further analyse the effects of single-leader/multiple-follower and multiple-leader/multiple-follower scenarios within a Mod-SbSG. To assess its effectiveness, we implement and test Mod-SbSG in an industrial control setting using two laboratory-scale testbeds featuring sequential and serial-parallel processes. The proposed approach delivers promising results compared to the vanilla SbPG, which reduces overflow by 97.1%, and in some cases, prevents overflow entirely. Additionally, it decreases power consumption by 5-13% while satisfying the production demand, which significantly improves potential (global objective) values.

Vehicle detection is a critical component in the development of advanced intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which rely on accurate and real-time information to optimize traffic flow, enhance safety, and support autonomous vehicle technologies [1]. As the number of vehicles on the road continues to grow, the demand for robust vehicle detection systems capable of operating under varying conditions--such as changes in weather, lighting, and vehicle types--has become paramount. In traffic monitoring, vehicle detection enables the real-time analysis of traffic patterns, congestion management, and incident detection, contributing to more efficient urban mobility. Moreover, vehicle detection serves as the foundation for vehicle classification and tracking systems, which are essential for dynamic tolling, traffic law enforcement, and infrastructure planning [2]. The evolution of vehicle detection systems has been closely tied to advancements in deep learning, particularly in the field of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) [3]. CNNs have played a pivotal role in object detection tasks due to their ability to automatically learn hierarchical features from raw image data [4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. Traditional vehicle detection approaches, such as histogram of oriented gradients (HOG)[9] and support vector machines (SVM)[10], lacked the flexibility and scalability needed for modern applications, especially when dealing with complex scenes and varying environmental conditions. Subsequent methods, like Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) and Speeded-Up Robust Features (SURF) [11], introduced improvements in detecting and describing features under varying scale and rotation conditions, although computational constraints limited real-time applicability for ITS.

Video-based gait analysis can be defined as the task of diagnosing pathologies, such as ataxia, using videos of patients walking in front of a camera. This paper presents a graph convolution network called AtGCN for detecting ataxic gait and identifying its severity using 2D videos. The problem is especially challenging as the deviation of an ataxic gait from a healthy gait is very subtle. The datasets for ataxic gait detection are also quite small, with the largest dataset having only 149 videos. The paper addresses the first problem using special spatiotemporal graph convolution that successfully captures important gait-related features. To handle the small dataset size, a deep spatiotemporal graph convolution network pre-trained on an action recognition dataset is systematically truncated and then fine-tuned on the ataxia dataset to obtain the AtGCN model. The paper also presents an augmentation strategy that segments a video sequence into multiple gait cycles. The proposed AtGCN model then operates on a graph of body part locations belonging to a single gait cycle. The evaluation results support the strength of the proposed AtGCN model, as it outperforms the state-of-the-art in detection and severity prediction with an accuracy of 93.46% and a MAE of 0.4169, respectively.