Deep learning time-series models are often used to make forecasts that inform downstream decisions. Since these decisions can differ from those in the training set, there is an implicit requirement that time-series models will generalize outside of their training distribution. Despite this core requirement, time-series models are typically trained and evaluated on in-distribution predictive tasks. We extend the orthogonal statistical learning framework to train causal time-series models that generalize better when forecasting the effect of actions outside of their training distribution. To evaluate these models, we leverage Regression Discontinuity Designs popular in economics to construct a test set of causal treatment effects.

Probabilistic topic models are a powerful tool for extracting latent themes from large text datasets. In many text datasets, we also observe per-document covariates (e.g., source, style, political affiliation) that act as environments that modulate a "global" (environment-agnostic) topic representation. Accurately learning these representations is important for prediction on new documents in unseen environments and for estimating the causal effect of topics on real-world outcomes. To this end, we introduce the Multi-environment Topic Model (MTM), an unsupervised probabilistic model that separates global and environment-specific terms. Through experimentation on various political content, from ads to tweets and speeches, we show that the MTM produces interpretable global topics with distinct environment-specific words. On multi-environment data, the MTM outperforms strong baselines in and out-of-distribution. It also enables the discovery of accurate causal effects.

Softmax Loss (SL) is widely applied in recommender systems (RS) and has demonstrated effectiveness. This work analyzes SL from a pairwise perspective, revealing two significant limitations: 1) the relationship between SL and conventional ranking metrics like DCG is not sufficiently tight; 2) SL is highly sensitive to false negative instances. Our analysis indicates that these limitations are primarily due to the use of the exponential function. To address these issues, this work extends SL to a new family of loss functions, termed Pairwise Softmax Loss (PSL), which replaces the exponential function in SL with other appropriate activation functions. While the revision is minimal, we highlight three merits of PSL: 1) it serves as a tighter surrogate for DCG with suitable activation functions; 2) it better balances data contributions; and 3) it acts as a specific BPR loss enhanced by Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO).

Data collaboration via Data Clean Room offers value but raises privacy concerns, which can be addressed through synthetic data and multi-table synthesizers. Common multi-table synthesizers fail to perform when subjects occur repeatedly in both tables. This is an urgent yet unresolved problem, since having both tables with repeating subjects is common. To improve performance in this scenario, we present the DEREC 3-step pre-processing pipeline to generalize adaptability of multi-table synthesizers. We also introduce the SIMPRO 3-aspect evaluation metrics, which leverage conditional distribution and large-scale simultaneous hypothesis testing to provide comprehensive feedback on synthetic data fidelity at both column and table levels. Results show that using DEREC improves fidelity, and multi-table synthesizers outperform single-table counterparts in collaboration settings. Together, the DEREC-SIMPRO pipeline offers a robust solution for generalizing data collaboration, promoting a more efficient, data-driven society.

Open-weight large language model (LLM) zoos allow users to quickly integrate state-of-the-art models into systems. Despite increasing availability, selecting the most appropriate model for a given task still largely relies on public benchmark leaderboards and educated guesses. This can be unsatisfactory for both inference service providers and end users, where the providers usually prioritize cost efficiency, while the end users usually prioritize model output quality for their inference requests. In commercial settings, these two priorities are often brought together in Service Level Agreements (SLA). We present MESS+, an online stochastic optimization algorithm for energy-optimal model selection from a model zoo, which works on a per-inference-request basis. For a given SLA that requires high accuracy, we are up to 2.5x more energy efficient with MESS+ than with randomly selecting an LLM from the zoo while maintaining SLA quality constraints.

Recent advances in deep learning architectures have enabled efficient and accurate classification of pre-trained targets in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Nevertheless, the presence of unknown targets in real battlefield scenarios is unavoidable, resulting in misclassification and reducing the accuracy of the classifier. Over the past decades, various feature-based out-of-distribution (OOD) approaches have been developed to address this issue, yet defining the decision boundary between known and unknown targets remains challenging. Additionally, unlike optical images, detecting unknown targets in SAR imagery is further complicated by high speckle noise, the presence of clutter, and the inherent similarities in back-scattered microwave signals. In this work, we propose transforming feature-based OOD detection into a class-localized feature-residual-based approach, demonstrating that this method can improve stability across varying unknown targets' distribution conditions. Transforming feature-based OOD detection into a residual-based framework offers a more robust reference space for distinguishing between in-distribution (ID) and OOD data, particularly within the unique characteristics of SAR imagery. This adaptive residual transformation method standardizes feature-based inputs into distributional representations, enhancing OOD detection in noisy, low-information images. Our approach demonstrates promising performance in real-world SAR scenarios, effectively adapting to the high levels of noise and clutter inherent in these environments. These findings highlight the practical relevance of residual-based OOD detection for SAR applications and suggest a foundation for further advancements in unknown target detection in complex, operational settings.

In real-world applications, the distribution of the data, and our goals, evolve over time. The prevailing theoretical framework for studying machine learning, namely probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, largely ignores time. As a consequence, existing strategies to address the dynamic nature of data and goals exhibit poor real-world performance. This paper develops a theoretical framework called "Prospective Learning" that is tailored for situations when the optimal hypothesis changes over time. In PAC learning, empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known to be consistent. We develop a learner called Prospective ERM, which returns a sequence of predictors that make predictions on future data. We prove that the risk of prospective ERM converges to the Bayes risk under certain assumptions on the stochastic process generating the data. Prospective ERM, roughly speaking, incorporates time as an input in addition to the data. We show that standard ERM as done in PAC learning, without incorporating time, can result in failure to learn when distributions are dynamic. Numerical experiments illustrate that prospective ERM can learn synthetic and visual recognition problems constructed from MNIST and CIFAR-10.

Most of the research on clustering ensemble focuses on designing practical consistency learning algorithms.To solve the problems that the quality of base clusters varies and the low-quality base clusters have an impact on the performance of the clustering ensemble, from the perspective of data mining, the intrinsic connections of data were mined based on the base clusters, and a high-order information fusion algorithm was proposed to represent the connections between data from different dimensions, namely Clustering Ensemble with High-order Consensus learning (HCLCE). Firstly, each high-order information was fused into a new structured consistency matrix. Then, the obtained multiple consistency matrices were fused together. Finally, multiple information was fused into a consistent result. Experimental results show that LCLCE algorithm has the clustering accuracy improved by an average of 7.22%, and the Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) improved by an average of 9.19% compared with the suboptimal Locally Weighted Evidence Accumulation (LWEA) algorithm. It can be seen that the proposed algorithm can obtain better clustering results compared with clustering ensemble algorithms and using one information alone.

The large models, as predicted by scaling raw forecasts, have made groundbreaking progress in many fields, particularly in natural language generation tasks, where they have approached or even surpassed human levels. However, the unprecedented scale of their parameters brings significant computational and storage costs. These large models require substantial computational resources and GPU memory to operate. When adapting large models to specific downstream tasks, their massive parameter scale poses a significant challenge in fine-tuning on hardware platforms with limited computational power and GPU memory. To address this issue, Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) offers a practical solution by efficiently adjusting the parameters of large pre-trained models to suit various downstream tasks. Specifically, PEFT adjusts the parameters of pre-trained large models to adapt to specific tasks or domains, minimizing the introduction of additional parameters and the computational resources required. This review mainly introduces the preliminary knowledge of PEFT, the core ideas and principles of various PEFT algorithms, the applications of PEFT, and potential future research directions. By reading this review, we believe that interested parties can quickly grasp the PEFT methodology, thereby accelerating its development and innovation.

National Statistical Organisations every year spend time and money to collect information through surveys. Some of these surveys include follow-up studies, and usually, some participants due to factors such as death, immigration, change of employment, health, etc, do not participate in future surveys. In this study, we focus on the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) COVID-19 Substudy, which was carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic in two waves. In this substudy, some participants from wave 1 did not participate in wave 2. Our purpose is to predict non-responses using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN), random forest (RF), AdaBoost, logistic regression, neural networks (NN), and support vector classifier (SVC). We find that RF outperforms other models in terms of balanced accuracy, KNN in terms of precision and test accuracy, and logistics regressions in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), i.e. AUC.