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 Statistical Learning


A Bayesian Mixture Model of Temporal Point Processes with Determinantal Point Process Prior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to excessive cluster generation with a lack of diversity. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Bayesian mixture model of Temporal Point Processes with Determinantal Point Process prior (TP$^2$DP$^2$) and accordingly an efficient posterior inference algorithm based on conditional Gibbs sampling. Our work provides a flexible learning framework for event sequence clustering, enabling automatic identification of the potential number of clusters and accurate grouping of sequences with similar features. It is applicable to a wide range of parametric temporal point processes, including neural network-based models. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data suggest that our framework could produce moderately fewer yet more diverse mixture components, and achieve outstanding results across multiple evaluation metrics.


Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Economic Development

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of our project is to use satellite data (including nighttime light data and remote sensing images) to give us some statistical estimation of the economic development level of a selected area (Singapore). Findings from the project could inform policymakers about areas needing intervention or support for economic development initiatives. Insights gained might aid in targeted policy formulation for infrastructure, agriculture, urban planning, or resource management.


Bridging the Gap: Representation Spaces in Neuro-Symbolic AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

However, although the cooperation between these two seems natural, the difference in their representation is obviously not negligible. Prof. Henry Kautz proposed a taxonomy of Neuro-Symbolic Systems in the AAAI 2020. In addition, many researchers have conducted relevant reviews of the recent neuro-symbolic AI from different perspectives. As Fig.1 shows, Acharya et al. [1] proposed a new classification method, which classified and discussed the application of existing neuro-symbolic AI by the role of neural and symbolic parts: learning for reasoning, reasoning for Learning, and learning-reasoning. Garcez et al. [73] proposed a taxonomy that includes sequential, nested, cooperative, and compiled neuro-symbolic AI based on the six types introduced by Henry Kautz. In addition, some reviews focus on cross-field integration and applications. For example, Berlot-Attwell [27] reviewed neuro-symbolic VQA (visual question answering) from the perspectives of AGI (artificial general intelligence) desiderata. Marra [128] conducted a comprehensive review on integrating neuro-symbolic and statistical relational artificial intelligence based on seven dimensions.


Unlearning in- vs. out-of-distribution data in LLMs under gradient-based method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine unlearning aims to solve the problem of removing the influence of selected training examples from a learned model. Despite the increasing attention to this problem, it remains an open research question how to evaluate unlearning in large language models (LLMs), and what are the critical properties of the data to be unlearned that affect the quality and efficiency of unlearning. This work formalizes a metric to evaluate unlearning quality in generative models, and uses it to assess the trade-offs between unlearning quality and performance. We demonstrate that unlearning out-of-distribution examples requires more unlearning steps but overall presents a better trade-off overall. For in-distribution examples, however, we observe a rapid decay in performance as unlearning progresses. We further evaluate how example's memorization and difficulty affect unlearning under a classical gradient ascent-based approach.


Classification with Conceptual Safeguards

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new approach to promote safety in classification tasks with established concepts. Our approach - called a conceptual safeguard - acts as a verification layer for models that predict a target outcome by first predicting the presence of intermediate concepts. Given this architecture, a safeguard ensures that a model meets a minimal level of accuracy by abstaining from uncertain predictions. In contrast to a standard selective classifier, a safeguard provides an avenue to improve coverage by allowing a human to confirm the presence of uncertain concepts on instances on which it abstains. We develop methods to build safeguards that maximize coverage without compromising safety, namely techniques to propagate the uncertainty in concept predictions and to flag salient concepts for human review. We benchmark our approach on a collection of real-world and synthetic datasets, showing that it can improve performance and coverage in deep learning tasks. One of the most promising applications of machine learning is to automate routine tasks that a human can perform.


Raising Body Ownership in End-to-End Visuomotor Policy Learning via Robot-Centric Pooling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present Robot-centric Pooling (RcP), a novel pooling method designed to enhance end-to-end visuomotor policies by enabling differentiation between the robots and similar entities or their surroundings. Given an image-proprioception pair, RcP guides the aggregation of image features by highlighting image regions correlating with the robot's proprioceptive states, thereby extracting robot-centric image representations for policy learning. Leveraging contrastive learning techniques, RcP integrates seamlessly with existing visuomotor policy learning frameworks and is trained jointly with the policy using the same dataset, requiring no extra data collection involving self-distractors. We evaluate the proposed method with reaching tasks in both simulated and real-world settings. The results demonstrate that RcP significantly enhances the policies' robustness against various unseen distractors, including self-distractors, positioned at different locations. Additionally, the inherent robot-centric characteristic of RcP enables the learnt policy to be far more resilient to aggressive pixel shifts compared to the baselines.


Labels in Extremes: How Well Calibrated are Extreme Multi-label Classifiers?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extreme multilabel classification (XMLC) problems occur in settings such as related product recommendation, large-scale document tagging, or ad prediction, and are characterized by a label space that can span millions of possible labels. There are two implicit tasks that the classifier performs: \emph{Evaluating} each potential label for its expected worth, and then \emph{selecting} the best candidates. For the latter task, only the relative order of scores matters, and this is what is captured by the standard evaluation procedure in the XMLC literature. However, in many practical applications, it is important to have a good estimate of the actual probability of a label being relevant, e.g., to decide whether to pay the fee to be allowed to display the corresponding ad. To judge whether an extreme classifier is indeed suited to this task, one can look, for example, to whether it returns \emph{calibrated} probabilities, which has hitherto not been done in this field. Therefore, this paper aims to establish the current status quo of calibration in XMLC by providing a systematic evaluation, comprising nine models from four different model families across seven benchmark datasets. As naive application of Expected Calibration Error (ECE) leads to meaningless results in long-tailed XMC datasets, we instead introduce the notion of \emph{calibration@k} (e.g., ECE@k), which focusses on the top-$k$ probability mass, offering a more appropriate measure for evaluating probability calibration in XMLC scenarios. While we find that different models can exhibit widely varying reliability plots, we also show that post-training calibration via a computationally efficient isotonic regression method enhances model calibration without sacrificing prediction accuracy. Thus, the practitioner can choose the model family based on accuracy considerations, and leave calibration to isotonic regression.


dsld: A Socially Relevant Tool for Teaching Statistics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing power of data science can play a crucial role in addressing social discrimination, necessitating nuanced understanding and effective mitigation strategies of potential biases. Data Science Looks At Discrimination (dsld) is an R and Python package designed to provide users with a comprehensive toolkit of statistical and graphical methods for assessing possible discrimination related to protected groups, such as race, gender, and age. Our software offers techniques for discrimination analysis by identifying and mitigating confounding variables, along with methods for reducing bias in predictive models. In educational settings, dsld offers instructors powerful tools to teach important statistical principles through motivating real world examples of discrimination analysis. The inclusion of an 80-page Quarto book further supports users, from statistics educators to legal professionals, in effectively applying these analytical tools to real world scenarios.


Machine Learning Mutation-Acyclicity of Quivers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool in mathematical research in recent years. This paper applies ML techniques to the study of quivers--a type of directed multigraph with significant relevance in algebra, combinatorics, computer science, and mathematical physics. Specifically, we focus on the challenging problem of determining the mutation-acyclicity of a quiver on 4 vertices, a property that is pivotal since mutation-acyclicity is often a necessary condition for theorems involving path algebras and cluster algebras. Although this classification is known for quivers with at most 3 vertices, little is known about quivers on more than 3 vertices. We give a computer-assisted proof of a theorem to prove that mutation-acyclicity is decidable for quivers on 4 vertices with edge weight at most 2. By leveraging neural networks (NNs) and support vector machines (SVMs), we then accurately classify more general 4-vertex quivers as mutation-acyclic or non-mutation-acyclic. Our results demonstrate that ML models can efficiently detect mutation-acyclicity, providing a promising computational approach to this combinatorial problem, from which the trained SVM equation provides a starting point to guide future theoretical development.


Scalable DP-SGD: Shuffling vs. Poisson Subsampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We provide new lower bounds on the privacy guarantee of the multi-epoch Adaptive Batch Linear Queries (ABLQ) mechanism with shuffled batch sampling, demonstrating substantial gaps when compared to Poisson subsampling; prior analysis was limited to a single epoch. Since the privacy analysis of Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) is obtained by analyzing the ABLQ mechanism, this brings into serious question the common practice of implementing shuffling-based DP-SGD, but reporting privacy parameters as if Poisson subsampling was used. To understand the impact of this gap on the utility of trained machine learning models, we introduce a practical approach to implement Poisson subsampling at scale using massively parallel computation, and efficiently train models with the same. We compare the utility of models trained with Poisson-subsampling-based DP-SGD, and the optimistic estimates of utility when using shuffling, via our new lower bounds on the privacy guarantee of ABLQ with shuffling.