Hierarchical time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making in various domains while presenting significant challenges for modelling as they involve multiple levels of aggregation, constraints, and availability of information. This study explores the influence of distinct information utilisation on the accuracy of hierarchical forecasts, proposing and evaluating locals and a range of Global Forecasting Models (GFMs). In contrast to local models, which forecast each series independently, we develop GFMs to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information, improving both forecasting performance and computational efficiency. We employ reconciliation methods to ensure coherency in forecasts and use the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) and Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) tests to assess statistical significance. The findings indicate that GFMs possess significant advantages for hierarchical forecasting, providing more accurate and computationally efficient solutions across different levels in a hierarchy. Two specific GFMs based on LightGBM are introduced, demonstrating superior accuracy and lower model complexity than their counterpart local models and conventional methods such as Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA).

Musicians frequently use social media to express their opinions, but they often convey different messages in their music compared to their posts online. Some utilize these platforms to abuse their colleagues, while others use it to show support for political candidates or engage in activism, as seen during the #EndSars protest. There are extensive research done on offensive language detection on social media, the usage of offensive language by musicians has received limited attention. In this study, we introduce VocalTweets, a code-switched and multilingual dataset comprising tweets from 12 prominent Nigerian musicians, labeled with a binary classification method as Normal or Offensive. We trained a model using HuggingFace's base-Twitter-RoBERTa, achieving an F1 score of 74.5. Additionally, we conducted cross-corpus experiments with the OLID dataset to evaluate the generalizability of our dataset.

Abstract--Gas source localization is pivotal for the rapid mitigation of gas leakage disasters, where mobile robots emerge as a promising solution. However, existing methods predominantly schedule robots' movements based on reactive stimuli or simplified gas plume models. These approaches typically excel in idealized, simulated environments but fall short in real-world gas environments characterized by their patchy distribution. In this work, we introduce SniffySquad, a multi-robot olfactionbased system designed to address the inherent patchiness in gas source localization. SniffySquad incorporates a patchinessaware active sensing approach that enhances the quality of data collection and estimation. Moreover, it features an innovative collaborative role adaptation strategy to boost the efficiency of source-seeking endeavors. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our system achieves an increase in the success rate by 20%+ and an improvement in path efficiency by 30%+, outperforming state-of-the-art gas source localization solutions. With the knowledge of source locations, subsequent mitigation operations, such as Rapid and accurate responses to gas leak incidents are shutting off valves or sealing the leaks, can be conducted more essential for safeguarding human and environmental health, logically, efficiently, and safely [5].

Natural gas pipeline leaks pose severe risks, leading to substantial economic losses and potential hazards to human safety. In this study, we develop an accurate model for the early prediction of pipeline leaks. To the best of our knowledge, unlike previous anomaly detection, this is the first application to use internal pipeline data for early prediction of leaks. The modeling process addresses two main challenges: long-term dependencies and sample imbalance. First, we introduce a dilated convolution-based prediction model to capture long-term dependencies, as dilated convolution expands the model's receptive field without added computational cost. Second, to mitigate sample imbalance, we propose the MKTCN model, which incorporates the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network as the fully connected layer in a dilated convolution model, enhancing network generalization. Finally, we validate the MKTCN model through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Results demonstrate that MKTCN outperforms in generalization and classification, particularly under severe data imbalance, and effectively predicts leaks up to 5000 seconds in advance. Overall, the MKTCN model represents a significant advancement in early pipeline leak prediction, providing robust generalization and improved modeling of the long-term dependencies inherent in multi-dimensional time-series data.

Data is the new oil of the 21st century. The growing trend of trading data for greater welfare has led to the emergence of data markets. A data market is any mechanism whereby the exchange of data products including datasets and data derivatives takes place as a result of data buyers and data sellers being in contact with one another, either directly or through mediating agents. It serves as a coordinating mechanism by which several functions, including the pricing and the distribution of data as the most important ones, interact to make the value of data fully exploited and enhanced. In this article, we present a comprehensive survey of this important and emerging direction from the aspects of data search, data productization, data transaction, data pricing, revenue allocation as well as privacy, security, and trust issues. We also investigate the government policies and industry status of data markets across different countries and different domains. Finally, we identify the unresolved challenges and discuss possible future directions for the development of data markets.

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate and address challenges related to all aspects of performing a complete uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis of a complicated physics-based simulation like a 2D slab burner direct numerical simulation (DNS). The UQ framework includes the development of data-driven surrogate models, propagation of parametric uncertainties to the fuel regression rate--the primary quantity of interest--and Bayesian calibration of critical parameters influencing the regression rate using experimental data. Specifically, the parameters calibrated include the latent heat of sublimation and a chemical reaction temperature exponent. Two surrogate models, a Gaussian Process (GP) and a Hierarchical Multiscale Surrogate (HMS) were constructed using an ensemble of 64 simulations generated via Latin Hypercube sampling. Both models exhibited comparable performance during cross-validation. However, the HMS was more stable due to its ability to handle multiscale effects, in contrast with the GP which was very sensitive to kernel choice. Analysis revealed that the surrogates do not accurately predict all spatial locations of the slab burner as-is. Subsequent Bayesian calibration of the physical parameters against experimental observations resulted in regression rate predictions that closer align with experimental observation in specific regions. This study highlights the importance of surrogate model selection and parameter calibration in quantifying uncertainty in predictions of fuel regression rates in complex combustion systems.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a ubiquitous tool for geostatistical modeling with high levels of flexibility and interpretability, and the ability to make predictions at unseen spatial locations through a process called Kriging. Estimation of Kriging weights relies on the inversion of the process' covariance matrix, creating a computational bottleneck for large spatial datasets. In this paper, we propose an Amortized Bayesian Local Interpolation NetworK (A-BLINK) for fast covariance parameter estimation, which uses two pre-trained deep neural networks to learn a mapping from spatial location coordinates and covariance function parameters to Kriging weights and the spatial variance, respectively. The fast prediction time of these networks allows us to bypass the matrix inversion step, creating large computational speedups over competing methods in both frequentist and Bayesian settings, and also provides full posterior inference and predictions using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. We show significant increases in computational efficiency over comparable scalable GP methodology in an extensive simulation study with lower parameter estimation error. The efficacy of our approach is also demonstrated using a temperature dataset of US climate normals for 1991--2020 based on over 7,000 weather stations.

Online multi-task learning (OMTL) enhances streaming data processing by leveraging the inherent relations among multiple tasks. It can be described as an optimization problem in which a single loss function is defined for multiple tasks. Existing gradient-descent-based methods for this problem might suffer from gradient vanishing and poor conditioning issues. Furthermore, the centralized setting hinders their application to online parallel optimization, which is vital to big data analytics. Therefore, this study proposes a novel OMTL framework based on the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM), a recent breakthrough in optimization suitable for the distributed computing environment because of its decomposable and easy-to-implement nature. The relations among multiple tasks are modeled dynamically to fit the constant changes in an online scenario. In a classical distributed computing architecture with a central server, the proposed OMTL algorithm with the ADMM optimizer outperforms SGD-based approaches in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Because the central server might become a bottleneck when the data scale grows, we further tailor the algorithm to a decentralized setting, so that each node can work by only exchanging information with local neighbors. Experimental results on a synthetic and several real-world datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our methods.

Machine learning models deployed in open-world scenarios often encounter unfamiliar conditions and perform poorly in unanticipated situations. As AI systems advance and find application in safety-critical domains, effectively handling out-of-distribution (OOD) data is crucial to building open-world learning systems. In this work, we introduce ALOE, a novel active learning algorithm for open-world environments designed to enhance model adaptation by incorporating new OOD classes via a two-stage approach. First, diversity sampling selects a representative set of examples, followed by energy-based OOD detection to prioritize likely unknown classes for annotation. This strategy accelerates class discovery and learning, even under constrained annotation budgets. Evaluations on three long-tailed image classification benchmarks demonstrate that ALOE outperforms traditional active learning baselines, effectively expanding known categories while balancing annotation cost. Our findings reveal a crucial tradeoff between enhancing known-class performance and discovering new classes, setting the stage for future advancements in open-world machine learning.

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and excessive variability due to large inverse weights, especially when treatment overlap is limited. In this work, we propose a post-hoc calibration algorithm for inverse propensity weights that generates well-calibrated, stabilized weights from user-supplied, cross-fitted propensity score estimates. Our approach employs a variant of isotonic regression with a loss function specifically tailored to the inverse propensity weights. Through theoretical analysis and empirical studies, we demonstrate that isotonic calibration improves the performance of doubly robust estimators of the average treatment effect.