Statistical Learning
Methane projections from Canada's oil sands tailings using scientific deep learning reveal significant underestimation
Saha, Esha, Wang, Oscar, Chakraborty, Amit K., Garcia, Pablo Venegas, Milne, Russell, Wang, Hao
Bitumen extraction for the production of synthetic crude oil in Canada's Athabasca Oil Sands industry has recently come under spotlight for being a significant source of greenhouse gas emission. A major cause of concern is methane, a greenhouse gas produced by the anaerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbons in oil sands residues, or tailings, stored in settle basins commonly known as oil sands tailing ponds. In order to determine the methane emitting potential of these tailing ponds and have future methane projections, we use real-time weather data, mechanistic models developed from laboratory controlled experiments, and industrial reports to train a physics constrained machine learning model. Our trained model can successfully identify the directions of active ponds and estimate their emission levels, which are generally hard to obtain due to data sampling restrictions. We found that each active oil sands tailing pond could emit between 950 to 1500 tonnes of methane per year, whose environmental impact is equivalent to carbon dioxide emissions from at least 6000 gasoline powered vehicles. Although abandoned ponds are often presumed to have insignificant emissions, our findings indicate that these ponds could become active over time and potentially emit up to 1000 tonnes of methane each year. Taking an average over all datasets that was used in model training, we estimate that emissions around major oil sands regions would need to be reduced by approximately 12% over a year, to reduce the average methane concentrations to 2005 levels.
Unraveling the Gradient Descent Dynamics of Transformers
Song, Bingqing, Han, Boran, Zhang, Shuai, Ding, Jie, Hong, Mingyi
While the Transformer architecture has achieved remarkable success across various domains, a thorough theoretical foundation explaining its optimization dynamics is yet to be fully developed. In this study, we aim to bridge this understanding gap by answering the following two core questions: (1) Which types of Transformer architectures allow Gradient Descent (GD) to achieve guaranteed convergence? and (2) Under what initial conditions and architectural specifics does the Transformer achieve rapid convergence during training? By analyzing the loss landscape of a single Transformer layer using Softmax and Gaussian attention kernels, our work provides concrete answers to these questions. Our findings demonstrate that, with appropriate weight initialization, GD can train a Transformer model (with either kernel type) to achieve a global optimal solution, especially when the input embedding dimension is large. Nonetheless, certain scenarios highlight potential pitfalls: training a Transformer using the Softmax attention kernel may sometimes lead to suboptimal local solutions. In contrast, the Gaussian attention kernel exhibits a much favorable behavior. Our empirical study further validate the theoretical findings.
Understanding Generalization in Quantum Machine Learning with Margins
Understanding and improving generalization capabilities is crucial for both classical and quantum machine learning (QML). Recent studies have revealed shortcomings in current generalization theories, particularly those relying on uniform bounds, across both classical and quantum settings. In this work, we present a margin-based generalization bound for QML models, providing a more reliable framework for evaluating generalization. Our experimental studies on the quantum phase recognition (QPR) dataset demonstrate that margin-based metrics are strong predictors of generalization performance, outperforming traditional metrics like parameter count. By connecting this margin-based metric to quantum information theory, we demonstrate how to enhance the generalization performance of QML through a classical-quantum hybrid approach when applied to classical data. Quantum machine learning (QML) presents exciting opportunities to expand the horizons of machine learning beyond classical approaches. Generalization--the ability to learn from examples and make accurate predictions on unseen data--is a core component of intelligence and a critical factor that quantifies the effectiveness of machine learning models in real-world applications. Thus, fundamental challenge in QML, as in classical machine learning, is to understand, characterize, and optimize generalization. Generalization in QML has been studied through various factors, such as the number of parameters (Caro et al., 2022), effective dimension (Abbas et al., 2021), quantum resource theory Bu et al. (2021; 2022; 2023), and quantum information-theoretic quantities Banchi et al. (2021); Caro et al. (2023).
Effectively Leveraging Momentum Terms in Stochastic Line Search Frameworks for Fast Optimization of Finite-Sum Problems
Lapucci, Matteo, Pucci, Davide
In this work, we address unconstrained finite-sum optimization problems, with particular focus on instances originating in large scale deep learning scenarios. Our main interest lies in the exploration of the relationship between recent line search approaches for stochastic optimization in the overparametrized regime and momentum directions. First, we point out that combining these two elements with computational benefits is not straightforward. To this aim, we propose a solution based on mini-batch persistency. We then introduce an algorithmic framework that exploits a mix of data persistency, conjugate-gradient type rules for the definition of the momentum parameter and stochastic line searches. The resulting algorithm is empirically shown to outperform other popular methods from the literature, obtaining state-of-the-art results in both convex and nonconvex large scale training problems.
Towards Characterizing Cyber Networks with Large Language Models
Hartsock, Alaric, Pereira, Luiz Manella, Fink, Glenn
Threat hunting analyzes large, noisy, high-dimensional data to find sparse adversarial behavior. We believe adversarial activities, however they are disguised, are extremely difficult to completely obscure in high dimensional space. In this paper, we employ these latent features of cyber data to find anomalies via a prototype tool called Cyber Log Embeddings Model (CLEM). CLEM was trained on Zeek network traffic logs from both a real-world production network and an from Internet of Things (IoT) cybersecurity testbed. The model is deliberately overtrained on a sliding window of data to characterize each window closely. We use the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) to comparing the k-means clustering of CLEM output to expert labeling of the embeddings. Our approach demonstrates that there is promise in using natural language modeling to understand cyber data.
'Explaining RL Decisions with Trajectories': A Reproducibility Study
Sadek, Karim Abdel, Nulli, Matteo, Velja, Joan, Vincenti, Jort
This work investigates the reproducibility of the paper "Explaining RL decisions with trajectories" by Deshmukh et al. (2023). The original paper introduces a novel approach in explainable reinforcement learning based on the attribution decisions of an agent to specific clusters of trajectories encountered during training. We verify the main claims from the paper, which state that (i) training on less trajectories induces a lower initial state value, (ii) trajectories in a cluster present similar high-level patterns, (iii) distant trajectories influence the decision of an agent, and (iv) humans correctly identify the attributed trajectories to the decision of the agent. We recover the environments used by the authors based on the partial original code they provided for one of the environments (Grid-World), and implemented the remaining from scratch (Seaquest and HalfCheetah, Breakout, Q*Bert). While we confirm that (i), (ii), and (iii) partially hold, we extend on the largely qualitative experiments from the authors by introducing a quantitative metric to further support (iii), and new experiments and visual results for (i). Moreover, we investigate the use of different clustering algorithms and encoder architectures to further support (ii). We could not support (iv), given the limited extent of the original experiments. We conclude that, while some of the claims can be supported, further investigations and experiments could be of interest. We recognize the novelty of the work from the authors and hope that our work paves the way for clearer and more transparent approaches.
Machines and Mathematical Mutations: Using GNNs to Characterize Quiver Mutation Classes
He, Jesse, Jenne, Helen, Chau, Herman, Brown, Davis, Raugas, Mark, Billey, Sara, Kvinge, Henry
Machine learning is becoming an increasingly valuable tool in mathematics, enabling one to identify subtle patterns across collections of examples so vast that they would be impossible for a single researcher to feasibly review and analyze. In this work, we use graph neural networks to investigate quiver mutation -- an operation that transforms one quiver (or directed multigraph) into another -- which is central to the theory of cluster algebras with deep connections to geometry, topology, and physics. In the study of cluster algebras, the question of mutation equivalence is of fundamental concern: given two quivers, can one efficiently determine if one quiver can be transformed into the other through a sequence of mutations? Currently, this question has only been resolved in specific cases. In this paper, we use graph neural networks and AI explainability techniques to discover mutation equivalence criteria for the previously unknown case of quivers of type $\tilde{D}_n$. Along the way, we also show that even without explicit training to do so, our model captures structure within its hidden representation that allows us to reconstruct known criteria from type $D_n$, adding to the growing evidence that modern machine learning models are capable of learning abstract and general rules from mathematical data.
Computable Model-Independent Bounds for Adversarial Quantum Machine Learning
Li, Bacui, Alpcan, Tansu, Thapa, Chandra, Parampalli, Udaya
By leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics, QML opens doors to novel approaches in machine learning and offers potential speedup. However, machine learning models are well-documented to be vulnerable to malicious manipulations, and this susceptibility extends to the models of QML. This situation necessitates a thorough understanding of QML's resilience against adversarial attacks, particularly in an era where quantum computing capabilities are expanding. In this regard, this paper examines model-independent bounds on adversarial performance for QML. To the best of our knowledge, we introduce the first computation of an approximate lower bound for adversarial error when evaluating model resilience against sophisticated quantum-based adversarial attacks. Experimental results are compared to the computed bound, demonstrating the potential of QML models to achieve high robustness. In the best case, the experimental error is only 10% above the estimated bound, offering evidence of the inherent robustness of quantum models. This work not only advances our theoretical understanding of quantum model resilience but also provides a precise reference bound for the future development of robust QML algorithms.
Multi-modal Iterative and Deep Fusion Frameworks for Enhanced Passive DOA Sensing via a Green Massive H2AD MIMO Receiver
Bai, Jiatong, Chen, Minghao, Tang, Wankai, Li, Yifan, Pan, Cunhua, Wu, Yongpeng, Shu, Feng
Most existing DOA estimation methods assume ideal source incident angles with minimal noise. Moreover, directly using pre-estimated angles to calculate weighted coefficients can lead to performance loss. Thus, a green multi-modal (MM) fusion DOA framework is proposed to realize a more practical, low-cost and high time-efficiency DOA estimation for a H$^2$AD array. Firstly, two more efficient clustering methods, global maximum cos\_similarity clustering (GMaxCS) and global minimum distance clustering (GMinD), are presented to infer more precise true solutions from the candidate solution sets. Based on this, an iteration weighted fusion (IWF)-based method is introduced to iteratively update weighted fusion coefficients and the clustering center of the true solution classes by using the estimated values. Particularly, the coarse DOA calculated by fully digital (FD) subarray, serves as the initial cluster center. The above process yields two methods called MM-IWF-GMaxCS and MM-IWF-GMinD. To further provide a higher-accuracy DOA estimation, a fusion network (fusionNet) is proposed to aggregate the inferred two-part true angles and thus generates two effective approaches called MM-fusionNet-GMaxCS and MM-fusionNet-GMinD. The simulation outcomes show the proposed four approaches can achieve the ideal DOA performance and the CRLB. Meanwhile, proposed MM-fusionNet-GMaxCS and MM-fusionNet-GMinD exhibit superior DOA performance compared to MM-IWF-GMaxCS and MM-IWF-GMinD, especially in extremely-low SNR range.
Empirical Quantum Advantage Analysis of Quantum Kernel in Gene Expression Data
Ghosh, Arpita, Fuad, MD Muhtasim, Bhattacharjee, Seemanta
The incorporation of quantum ansatz with machine learning classification models demonstrates the ability to extract patterns from data for classification tasks. However, taking advantage of the enhanced computational power of quantum machine learning necessitates dealing with various constraints. In this paper, we focus on constraints like finding suitable datasets where quantum advantage is achievable and evaluating the relevance of features chosen by classical and quantum methods. Additionally, we compare quantum and classical approaches using benchmarks and estimate the computational complexity of quantum circuits to assess real-world usability. For our experimental validation, we selected the gene expression dataset, given the critical role of genetic variations in regulating physiological behavior and disease susceptibility. Through this study, we aim to contribute to the advancement of quantum machine learning methodologies, offering valuable insights into their potential for addressing complex classification challenges in various domains.