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 Statistical Learning


MCCE: Missingness-aware Causal Concept Explainer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal concept effect estimation is gaining increasing interest in the field of interpretable machine learning. This general approach explains the behaviors of machine learning models by estimating the causal effect of human-understandable concepts, which represent high-level knowledge more comprehensibly than raw inputs like tokens. However, existing causal concept effect explanation methods assume complete observation of all concepts involved within the dataset, which can fail in practice due to incomplete annotations or missing concept data. We theoretically demonstrate that unobserved concepts can bias the estimation of the causal effects of observed concepts. To address this limitation, we introduce the Missingness-aware Causal Concept Explainer (MCCE), a novel framework specifically designed to estimate causal concept effects when not all concepts are observable. Our framework learns to account for residual bias resulting from missing concepts and utilizes a linear predictor to model the relationships between these concepts and the outputs of black-box machine learning models. It can offer explanations on both local and global levels. We conduct validations using a real-world dataset, demonstrating that MCCE achieves promising performance compared to state-of-the-art explanation methods in causal concept effect estimation.


Latency Optimization in LEO Satellite Communications with Hybrid Beam Pattern and Interference Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication systems has significantly enhanced global connectivity, offering high-capacity, low-latency services crucial for next-generation applications. However, the dense configuration of LEO constellations poses challenges in resource allocation optimization and interference management, complicating coexistence with other communication systems. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel framework for optimizing the beam scheduling and resource allocation in multi-beam LEO systems. To satisfy the uneven terrestrial traffic demand, a hybrid beam pattern is employed to enhance the downlink quality of service and minimize the transmission latency from LEO satellites to ground user terminals. Additionally, a dynamic co-channel interference (CCI) control mechanism is developed to mitigate inter-beam interference within the LEO constellation and limit cross-system interference affecting protected users from other networks. The problem of user-beam-frequency allocation with power optimization is formulated as a mixed-integer dynamic programming model and solved using a low-complexity neural network-based graph generation algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed approach outperforms the baseline methods of full frequency reuse and single-channel transmission, and highlights the potential for further performance improvement with multi-user transmissions.


Expert Study on Interpretable Machine Learning Models with Missing Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inherently interpretable machine learning (IML) models provide valuable insights for clinical decision-making but face challenges when features have missing values. Classical solutions like imputation or excluding incomplete records are often unsuitable in applications where values are missing at test time. In this work, we conducted a survey with 71 clinicians from 29 trauma centers across France, including 20 complete responses to study the interaction between medical professionals and IML applied to data with missing values. This provided valuable insights into how missing data is interpreted in clinical machine learning. We used the prediction of hemorrhagic shock as a concrete example to gauge the willingness and readiness of the participants to adopt IML models from three classes of methods. Our findings show that, while clinicians value interpretability and are familiar with common IML methods, classical imputation techniques often misalign with their intuition, and that models that natively handle missing values are preferred. These results emphasize the need to integrate clinical intuition into future IML models for better human-computer interaction.


What makes a good BIM design: quantitative linking between design behavior and quality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the Architecture Engineering & Construction (AEC) industry, how design behaviors impact design quality remains unclear. This study proposes a novel approach, which, for the first time, identifies and quantitatively describes the relationship between design behaviors and quality of design based on Building Information Modeling (BIM). Real-time collection and log mining are integrated to collect raw data of design behaviors. Feature engineering and various machine learning models are then utilized for quantitative modeling and interpretation. Results confirm an existing quantifiable relationship which can be learned by various models. The best-performing model using Extremely Random Trees achieved an R2 value of 0.88 on the test set. Behavioral features related to designer's skill level and changes of design intentions are identified to have significant impacts on design quality. These findings deepen our understanding of the design process and help forming BIM designs with better quality.


Inherently Interpretable and Uncertainty-Aware Models for Online Learning in Cyber-Security Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we address the critical need for interpretable and uncertainty-aware machine learning models in the context of online learning for high-risk industries, particularly cyber-security. While deep learning and other complex models have demonstrated impressive predictive capabilities, their opacity and lack of uncertainty quantification present significant questions about their trustworthiness. We propose a novel pipeline for online supervised learning problems in cyber-security, that harnesses the inherent interpretability and uncertainty awareness of Additive Gaussian Processes (AGPs) models. Our approach aims to balance predictive performance with transparency while improving the scalability of AGPs, which represents their main drawback, potentially enabling security analysts to better validate threat detection, troubleshoot and reduce false positives, and generally make trustworthy, informed decisions. This work contributes to the growing field of interpretable AI by proposing a class of models that can be significantly beneficial for high-stake decision problems such as the ones typical of the cyber-security domain. The source code is available.


Stability and Generalization for Distributed SGDA

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Minimax optimization is gaining increasing attention in modern machine learning applications. Driven by large-scale models and massive volumes of data collected from edge devices, as well as the concern to preserve client privacy, communication-efficient distributed minimax optimization algorithms become popular, such as Local Stochastic Gradient Descent Ascent (Local-SGDA), and Local Decentralized SGDA (Local-DSGDA). While most existing research on distributed minimax algorithms focuses on convergence rates, computation complexity, and communication efficiency, the generalization performance remains underdeveloped, whereas generalization ability is a pivotal indicator for evaluating the holistic performance of a model when fed with unknown data. In this paper, we propose the stability-based generalization analytical framework for Distributed-SGDA, which unifies two popular distributed minimax algorithms including Local-SGDA and Local-DSGDA, and conduct a comprehensive analysis of stability error, generalization gap, and population risk across different metrics under various settings, e.g., (S)C-(S)C, PL-SC, and NC-NC cases. Our theoretical results reveal the trade-off between the generalization gap and optimization error and suggest hyperparameters choice to obtain the optimal population risk.


Learning Hand State Estimation for a Light Exoskeleton

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a machine learning-based estimator of the hand state for rehabilitation purposes, using light exoskeletons. These devices are easy to use and useful for delivering domestic and frequent therapies. We build a supervised approach using information from the muscular activity of the forearm and the motion of the exoskeleton to reconstruct the hand's opening degree and compliance level. Such information can be used to evaluate the therapy progress and develop adaptive control behaviors. Our approach is validated with a real light exoskeleton. The experiments demonstrate good predictive performance of our approach when trained on data coming from a single user and tested on the same user, even across different sessions. This generalization capability makes our system promising for practical use in real rehabilitation.


StreamAdapter: Efficient Test Time Adaptation from Contextual Streams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks directly from the given demonstrations without requiring gradient updates. While recent advances have expanded context windows to accommodate more demonstrations, this approach increases inference costs without necessarily improving performance. To mitigate these issues, We propose StreamAdapter, a novel approach that directly updates model parameters from context at test time, eliminating the need for explicit in-context demonstrations. StreamAdapter employs context mapping and weight absorption mechanisms to dynamically transform ICL demonstrations into parameter updates with minimal additional parameters. By reducing reliance on numerous in-context examples, StreamAdapter significantly reduce inference costs and allows for efficient inference with constant time complexity, regardless of demonstration count. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks and model architectures demonstrate that StreamAdapter achieves comparable or superior adaptation capability to ICL while requiring significantly fewer demonstrations. The superior task adaptation and context encoding capabilities of StreamAdapter on both language understanding and generation tasks provides a new perspective for adapting LLMs at test time using context, allowing for more efficient adaptation across scenarios and more cost-effective inference.


Towards efficient compression and communication for prototype-based decentralized learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In prototype-based federated learning, the exchange of model parameters between clients and the master server is replaced by transmission of prototypes or quantized versions of the data samples to the aggregation server. A fully decentralized deployment of prototype-based learning, without a central agregartor of prototypes, is more robust upon network failures and reacts faster to changes in the statistical distribution of the data, suggesting potential advantages and quick adaptation in dynamic learning tasks, e.g., when the data sources are IoT devices or when data is non-iid. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing a communication-efficient decentralized learning system based on prototypes. We address the challenge of prototype redundancy by leveraging on a twofold data compression technique, i.e., sending only update messages if the prototypes are informationtheoretically useful (via the Jensen-Shannon distance), and using clustering on the prototypes to compress the update messages used in the gossip protocol. We also use parallel instead of sequential gossiping, and present an analysis of its age-of-information (AoI). Our experimental results show that, with these improvements, the communications load can be substantially reduced without decreasing the convergence rate of the learning algorithm. Federated Learning (FL) [1], [2], [3] and Decentralized Federated Learning (DFL) [4], [5] provide good approaches for distributed machine learning system where the main focus is the minimization of a global loss function using different versions of a model created by multiple clients. These approaches have been extensively studied in the literature and applied, traditionally, to process private data in areas such as health and banking. In this paper, differently to these well-known approaches, we focus on the analysis and implementation of a decentralized machine learning system based on prototypes. On the one hand, our choice of prototype-based algorithms is motivated by the advantages of these prototypes as compact representation of the data, capturing the essential features and patterns within the dataset.


Cross Space and Time: A Spatio-Temporal Unitized Model for Traffic Flow Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting spatio-temporal traffic flow presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between spatial and temporal factors. Existing approaches often address these dimensions in isolation, neglecting their critical interdependencies. In this paper, we introduce the Spatio-Temporal Unitized Model (STUM), a unified framework designed to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies while addressing spatio-temporal heterogeneity through techniques such as distribution alignment and feature fusion. It also ensures both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Central to STUM is the Adaptive Spatio-temporal Unitized Cell (ASTUC), which utilizes low-rank matrices to seamlessly store, update, and interact with space, time, as well as their correlations. Our framework is also modular, allowing it to integrate with various spatio-temporal graph neural networks through components such as backbone models, feature extractors, residual fusion blocks, and predictive modules to collectively enhance forecasting outcomes. Experimental results across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that STUM consistently improves prediction performance with minimal computational cost. These findings are further supported by hyperparameter optimization, pre-training analysis, and result visualization. We provide our source code for reproducibility at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STUM-E4F0.