Statistical Learning
The Muon Space GNSS-R Surface Soil Moisture Product
Roberts, Max, Colwell, Ian, Chew, Clara, Masters, Dallas, Nordstrom, Karl
Muon Space (Muon) is building a constellation of small satellites, many of which will carry global navigation satellite system-reflectometry (GNSS-R) receivers. In preparation for the launch of this constellation, we have developed a generalized deep learning retrieval pipeline, which now produces operational GNSS-R near-surface soil moisture retrievals using data from NASA's Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) mission. In this article, we describe the input datasets, preprocessing methods, model architecture, development methods, and detail the soil moisture products generated from these retrievals. The performance of this product is quantified against in situ measurements and compared to both the target dataset (retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) satellite) and the v1.0 soil moisture product from the CYGNSS mission. The Muon Space product achieves improvements in spatial resolution over SMAP with comparable performance in many regions. An ubRMSE of 0.032 cm$^3$ cm$^{-3}$ for in situ soil moisture observations from SMAP core validation sites is shown, though performance is lower than SMAP's when comparing in forests and/or mountainous terrain. The Muon Space product outperforms the v1.0 CYGNSS soil moisture product in almost all aspects. This initial release serves as the foundation of our operational soil moisture product, which soon will additionally include data from Muon Space satellites.
Recurrent Stochastic Configuration Networks with Hybrid Regularization for Nonlinear Dynamics Modelling
Recurrent stochastic configuration networks (RSCNs) have shown great potential in modelling nonlinear dynamic systems with uncertainties. This paper presents an RSCN with hybrid regularization to enhance both the learning capacity and generalization performance of the network. Given a set of temporal data, the well-known least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is employed to identify the significant order variables. Subsequently, an improved RSCN with L2 regularization is introduced to approximate the residuals between the output of the target plant and the LASSO model. The output weights are updated in real-time through a projection algorithm, facilitating a rapid response to dynamic changes within the system. A theoretical analysis of the universal approximation property is provided, contributing to the understanding of the network's effectiveness in representing various complex nonlinear functions. Experimental results from a nonlinear system identification problem and two industrial predictive tasks demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other models across all testing datasets.
Clustering Time Series Data with Gaussian Mixture Embeddings in a Graph Autoencoder Framework
Afzali, Amirabbas, Hosseini, Hesam, Mirzai, Mohmmadamin, Amini, Arash
Time series data analysis is prevalent across various domains, including finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. Traditional time series clustering methods often struggle to capture the complex temporal dependencies inherent in such data. In this paper, we propose the Variational Mixture Graph Autoencoder (VMGAE), a graph-based approach for time series clustering that leverages the structural advantages of graphs to capture enriched data relationships and produces Gaussian mixture embeddings for improved separability. Comparisons with baseline methods are included with experimental results, demonstrating that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time-series clustering techniques. We further validate our method on real-world financial data, highlighting its practical applications in finance. By uncovering community structures in stock markets, our method provides deeper insights into stock relationships, benefiting market prediction, portfolio optimization, and risk management.
EnStack: An Ensemble Stacking Framework of Large Language Models for Enhanced Vulnerability Detection in Source Code
Ridoy, Shahriyar Zaman, Shaon, Md. Shazzad Hossain, Cuzzocrea, Alfredo, Akter, Mst Shapna
Automated detection of software vulnerabilities is critical for enhancing security, yet existing methods often struggle with the complexity and diversity of modern codebases. In this paper, we introduce EnStack, a novel ensemble stacking framework that enhances vulnerability detection using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. Our approach synergizes multiple pre-trained large language models (LLMs) specialized in code understanding CodeBERT for semantic analysis, GraphCodeBERT for structural representation, and UniXcoder for cross-modal capabilities. By fine-tuning these models on the Draper VDISC dataset and integrating their outputs through meta-classifiers such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest, and XGBoost, EnStack effectively captures intricate code patterns and vulnerabilities that individual models may overlook. The meta-classifiers consolidate the strengths of each LLM, resulting in a comprehensive model that excels in detecting subtle and complex vulnerabilities across diverse programming contexts. Experimental results demonstrate that EnStack significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving notable improvements in accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. This work highlights the potential of ensemble LLM approaches in code analysis tasks and offers valuable insights into applying NLP techniques for advancing automated vulnerability detection.
Understanding GEMM Performance and Energy on NVIDIA Ada Lovelace: A Machine Learning-Based Analytical Approach
Xiaoteng, null, Liu, null, Halim, Pavly
Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].
Deciphering Acoustic Emission with Machine Learning
Berta, Dรฉnes, Katzer, Balduin, Schulz, Katrin, Ispรกnovity, Pรฉter Dusรกn
Acoustic emission signals have been shown to accompany avalanche-like events in materials, such as dislocation avalanches in crystalline solids, collapse of voids in porous matter or domain wall movement in ferroics. The data provided by acoustic emission measurements is tremendously rich, but it is rather challenging to precisely connect it to the characteristics of the triggering avalanche. In our work we propose a machine learning based method with which one can infer microscopic details of dislocation avalanches in micropillar compression tests from merely acoustic emission data. As it is demonstrated in the paper, this approach is suitable for the prediction of the force-time response as it can provide outstanding prediction for the temporal location of avalanches and can also predict the magnitude of individual deformation events. Various descriptors (including frequency dependent and independent ones) are utilised in our machine learning approach and their importance in the prediction is analysed. The transferability of the method to other specimen sizes is also demonstrated and the possible application in more generic settings is discussed. Introduction It was shown that at the micron-scale and below crystalline materials (as well as many other heterogeneous materials) exhibit complex deformation behaviour including size-related hardening and significant sample-to-sample variation in the plastic response [1, 2, 3]. In addition, in this regime deformation becomes intermittent and constitutes of a series of random strain bursts that make the details of the deformation process unpredictable both in time and space [4, 5]. This intermittency and stochasticity originates from the sudden rearrangement events of the dislocation network, the so-called dislocation avalanches. In order to experimentally study the underlying physical process, that is, the source of the avalanche, it has to be connected to directly related proxies that are experimentally measurable with sufficient precision. This is usually a rather challenging task, since avalanches are fast and mainly occur inside the material below its surface.
Finding Structure in Language Models
When we speak, write or listen, we continuously make predictions based on our knowledge of a language's grammar. Remarkably, children acquire this grammatical knowledge within just a few years, enabling them to understand and generalise to novel constructions that have never been uttered before. Language models are powerful tools that create representations of language by incrementally predicting the next word in a sentence, and they have had a tremendous societal impact in recent years. The central research question of this thesis is whether these models possess a deep understanding of grammatical structure similar to that of humans. This question lies at the intersection of natural language processing, linguistics, and interpretability. To address it, we will develop novel interpretability techniques that enhance our understanding of the complex nature of large-scale language models. We approach our research question from three directions. First, we explore the presence of abstract linguistic information through structural priming, a key paradigm in psycholinguistics for uncovering grammatical structure in human language processing. Next, we examine various linguistic phenomena, such as adjective order and negative polarity items, and connect a model's comprehension of these phenomena to the data distribution on which it was trained. Finally, we introduce a controlled testbed for studying hierarchical structure in language models using various synthetic languages of increasing complexity and examine the role of feature interactions in modelling this structure. Our findings offer a detailed account of the grammatical knowledge embedded in language model representations and provide several directions for investigating fundamental linguistic questions using computational methods.
Enhancing Few-Shot Learning with Integrated Data and GAN Model Approaches
Feng, Yinqiu, Shen, Aoran, Hu, Jiacheng, Liang, Yingbin, Wang, Shiru, Du, Junliang
This paper presents an innovative approach to enhancing few-shot learning by integrating data augmentation with model fine-tuning in a framework designed to tackle the challenges posed by small-sample data. Recognizing the critical limitations of traditional machine learning models that require large datasets-especially in fields such as drug discovery, target recognition, and malicious traffic detection-this study proposes a novel strategy that leverages Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and advanced optimization techniques to improve model performance with limited data. Specifically, the paper addresses the noise and bias issues introduced by data augmentation methods, contrasting them with model-based approaches, such as fine-tuning and metric learning, which rely heavily on related datasets. By combining Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and discriminative model ensemble strategies within a GAN framework, the proposed model adjusts generative and discriminative distributions to simulate a broader range of relevant data. Furthermore, it employs MHLoss and a reparameterized GAN ensemble to enhance stability and accelerate convergence, ultimately leading to improved classification performance on small-sample images and structured datasets. Results confirm that the MhERGAN algorithm developed in this research is highly effective for few-shot learning, offering a practical solution that bridges data scarcity with high-performing model adaptability and generalization.
No Identity, no problem: Motion through detection for people tracking
Engilberge, Martin, Grosche, F. Wilke, Fua, Pascal
Tracking-by-detection has become the de facto standard approach to people tracking. To increase robustness, some approaches incorporate re-identification using appearance models and regressing motion offset, which requires costly identity annotations. In this paper, we propose exploiting motion clues while providing supervision only for the detections, which is much easier to do. Our algorithm predicts detection heatmaps at two different times, along with a 2D motion estimate between the two images. It then warps one heatmap using the motion estimate and enforces consistency with the other one. This provides the required supervisory signal on the motion without the need for any motion annotations. In this manner, we couple the information obtained from different images during training and increase accuracy, especially in crowded scenes and when using low frame-rate sequences. We show that our approach delivers state-of-the-art results for single- and multi-view multi-target tracking on the MOT17 and WILDTRACK datasets.
A quantum inspired predictor of Parkinsons disease built on a diverse, multimodal dataset
Vatsavai, Diya, Iyer, Anya, Nair, Ashwin A.
Parkinsons disease, the fastest growing neurodegenerative disorder globally, has seen a 50 percent increase in cases within just two years. As speech, memory, and motor symptoms worsen over time, early diagnosis is crucial for preserving patients quality of life. While machine-learning-based detection has shown promise, relying on a single feature for classification can be error-prone due to the variability of symptoms between patients. To address this limitation we utilized the mPower database, which includes 150,000 samples across four key biomarkers: voice, gait, tapping, and demographic data. From these measurements, we extracted 64 features and trained a baseline Random Forest model to select the features above the 80th percentile. For classification, we designed a simulatable quantum support vector machine (qSVM) that detects high-dimensional patterns, leveraging recent advancements in quantum machine learning. With a novel, simulatable architecture that can be run on standard hardware rather than resource-intensive quantum computers, our model achieves an accuracy of 90 percent and an AUC of 0.98, surpassing benchmark models. By utilizing an innovative classification framework built on a diverse set of features, our model offers a pathway for accessible global Parkinsons screening.