Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Ensuring the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs) requires both accurate estimation of their performance and efficient discovery of potential failure cases. This paper introduces Bayesian adaptive multifidelity sampling (BAMS), which leverages the power of adaptive Bayesian sampling to achieve efficient discovery while simultaneously estimating the rate of adverse events. BAMS prioritizes exploration of regions with potentially low performance, leading to the identification of novel and critical scenarios that traditional methods might miss. Using real-world AV data we demonstrate that BAMS discovers 10 times as many issues as Monte Carlo (MC) and importance sampling (IS) baselines, while at the same time generating rate estimates with variances 15 and 6 times narrower than MC and IS baselines respectively.

Digital health interventions (DHIs) and remote patient monitoring (RPM) have shown great potential in improving chronic disease management through personalized care. However, barriers like limited efficacy and workload concerns hinder adoption of existing DHIs; while limited sample sizes and lack of interpretability limit the effectiveness and adoption of purely black-box algorithmic DHIs. In this paper, we address these challenges by developing a pipeline for learning explainable treatment policies for RPM-enabled DHIs. We apply our approach in the real-world setting of RPM using a DHI to improve glycemic control of youth with type 1 diabetes. Our main contribution is to reveal the importance of clinical domain knowledge in developing state and action representations for effective, efficient, and interpretable targeting policies. We observe that policies learned from clinician-informed representations are significantly more efficacious and efficient than policies learned from black-box representations. This work emphasizes the importance of collaboration between ML researchers and clinicians for developing effective DHIs in the real world.

Detecting and quantifying bone changes in micro-CT scans of rodents is a common task in preclinical drug development studies. However, this task is manual, time-consuming and subject to inter- and intra-observer variability. In 2024, Anonymous Company organized an internal challenge to develop models for automatic bone quantification. We prepared and annotated a high-quality dataset of 3D $\mu$CT bone scans from $83$ mice. The challenge attracted over $80$ AI scientists from around the globe who formed $23$ teams. The participants were tasked with developing a solution to identify the plane where the bone growth happens, which is essential for fully automatic segmentation of trabecular bone. As a result, six computer vision solutions were developed that can accurately identify the location of the growth plate plane. The solutions achieved the mean absolute error of $1.91\pm0.87$ planes from the ground truth on the test set, an accuracy level acceptable for practical use by a radiologist. The annotated 3D scans dataset along with the six solutions and source code, is being made public, providing researchers with opportunities to develop and benchmark their own approaches. The code, trained models, and the data will be shared.

Despite having triggered devastating pandemics in the past, our ability to quantitatively assess the emergence potential of individual strains of animal influenza viruses remains limited. This study introduces Emergenet, a tool to infer a digital twin of sequence evolution to chart how new variants might emerge in the wild. Our predictions based on Emergenets built only using 220,151 Hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences consistently outperform WHO seasonal vaccine recommendations for H1N1/H3N2 subtypes over two decades (average match-improvement: 3.73 AAs, 28.40\%), and are at par with state-of-the-art approaches that use more detailed phenotypic annotations. Finally, our generative models are used to scalably calculate the current odds of emergence of animal strains not yet in human circulation, which strongly correlates with CDC's expert-assessed Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) scores (Pearson's $r = 0.721, p = 10^{-4}$). A minimum five orders of magnitude speedup over CDC's assessment (seconds vs months) then enabled us to analyze 6,354 animal strains collected post-2020 to identify 35 strains with high emergence scores ($> 7.7$). The Emergenet framework opens the door to preemptive pandemic mitigation through targeted inoculation of animal hosts before the first human infection.

This paper is in the field of stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits (MABs), i.e. those sequential selection techniques able to learn online using only the feedback given by the chosen option (a.k.a. $arm$). We study a particular case of the rested bandits in which the arms' expected reward is monotonically non-decreasing and concave. We study the inherent sample complexity of the regret minimization problem by deriving suitable regret lower bounds. Then, we design an algorithm for the rested case $\textit{R-ed-UCB}$, providing a regret bound depending on the properties of the instance and, under certain circumstances, of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{\frac{2}{3}})$. We empirically compare our algorithms with state-of-the-art methods for non-stationary MABs over several synthetically generated tasks and an online model selection problem for a real-world dataset

PAC-Bayes learning is a comprehensive setting for (i) studying the generalisation ability of learning algorithms and (ii) deriving new learning algorithms by optimising a generalisation bound. However, optimising generalisation bounds might not always be viable for tractable or computational reasons, or both. For example, iteratively querying the empirical risk might prove computationally expensive. In response, we introduce a novel principled strategy for building an iterative learning algorithm via the optimisation of a sequence of surrogate training objectives, inherited from PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds. The key argument is to replace the empirical risk (seen as a function of hypotheses) in the generalisation bound by its projection onto a constructible low dimensional functional space: these projections can be queried much more efficiently than the initial risk. On top of providing that generic recipe for learning via surrogate PAC-Bayes bounds, we (i) contribute theoretical results establishing that iteratively optimising our surrogates implies the optimisation of the original generalisation bounds, (ii) instantiate this strategy to the framework of meta-learning, introducing a meta-objective offering a closed form expression for meta-gradient, (iii) illustrate our approach with numerical experiments inspired by an industrial biochemical problem.

In real-world applications, class-imbalanced datasets pose significant challenges for machine learning algorithms, such as support vector machines (SVMs), particularly in effectively managing imbalance, noise, and outliers. Fuzzy support vector machines (FSVMs) address class imbalance by assigning varying fuzzy memberships to samples; however, their sensitivity to imbalanced datasets can lead to inaccurate assessments. The recently developed slack-factor-based FSVM (SFFSVM) improves traditional FSVMs by using slack factors to adjust fuzzy memberships based on misclassification likelihood, thereby rectifying misclassifications induced by the hyperplane obtained via different error cost (DEC). Building on SFFSVM, we propose an improved slack-factor-based FSVM (ISFFSVM) that introduces a novel location parameter. This novel parameter significantly advances the model by constraining the DEC hyperplane's extension, thereby mitigating the risk of misclassifying minority class samples. It ensures that majority class samples with slack factor scores approaching the location threshold are assigned lower fuzzy memberships, which enhances the model's discrimination capability. Extensive experimentation on a diverse array of real-world KEEL datasets demonstrates that the proposed ISFFSVM consistently achieves higher F1-scores, Matthews correlation coefficients (MCC), and area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR) compared to baseline classifiers. Consequently, the introduction of the location parameter, coupled with the slack-factor-based fuzzy membership, enables ISFFSVM to outperform traditional approaches, particularly in scenarios characterized by severe class disparity. The code for the proposed model is available at \url{https://github.com/mtanveer1/ISFFSVM}.

Fundus images are widely used for diagnosing various eye diseases, such as diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and age-related macular degeneration. However, manual analysis of fundus images is time-consuming and prone to errors. In this report, we propose a novel method for fundus detection using object detection and machine learning classification techniques. We use a YOLO_V8 to perform object detection on fundus images and locate the regions of interest (ROIs) such as optic disc, optic cup and lesions. We then use machine learning SVM classification algorithms to classify the ROIs into different DR stages based on the presence or absence of pathological signs such as exudates, microaneurysms, and haemorrhages etc. Our method achieves 84% accuracy and efficiency for fundus detection and can be applied for retinal fundus disease triage, especially in remote areas around the world.

Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting has significant practical implications for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. This study focuses on enhancing electricity price forecasting in California's grid, addressing challenges from complex generation data and heteroskedasticity. Utilizing principal component analysis (PCA), we analyze CAISO's hourly electricity prices and demand from 2016-2021 to improve day-ahead forecasting accuracy. Initially, we apply traditional outlier analysis with the interquartile range method, followed by robust PCA (RPCA) for more effective outlier elimination. This approach improves data symmetry and reduces skewness. We then construct multiple linear regression models using both raw and PCA-transformed features. The model with transformed features, refined through traditional and SAS Sparse Matrix outlier removal methods, shows superior forecasting performance. The SAS Sparse Matrix method, in particular, significantly enhances model accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that PCA-based methods are key in advancing electricity price forecasting, supporting renewable integration and grid management in day-ahead markets. Keywords: Electricity price forecasting, principal component analysis (PCA), power system planning, heteroskedasticity, renewable energy integration.