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 Statistical Learning


Rock the KASBA: Blazingly Fast and Accurate Time Series Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series data has become increasingly prevalent across numerous domains, driving a growing demand for time series machine learning techniques. Among these, time series clustering (TSCL) stands out as one of the most popular machine learning tasks. TSCL serves as a powerful exploratory analysis tool and is also employed as a preprocessing step or subroutine for various tasks, including anomaly detection, segmentation, and classification. The most popular TSCL algorithms are either fast (in terms of run time) but perform poorly on benchmark problems, or perform well on benchmarks but scale poorly. We present a new TSCL algorithm, the $k$-means (K) accelerated (A) Stochastic subgradient (S) Barycentre (B) Average (A) (KASBA) clustering algorithm. KASBA is a $k$-means clustering algorithm that uses the Move-Split-Merge (MSM) elastic distance at all stages of clustering, applies a randomised stochastic subgradient gradient descent to find barycentre centroids, links each stage of clustering to accelerate convergence and exploits the metric property of MSM distance to avoid a large proportion of distance calculations. It is a versatile and scalable clusterer designed for real-world TSCL applications. It allows practitioners to balance run time and clustering performance. We demonstrate through extensive experimentation that KASBA produces significantly better clustering than the faster state of the art clusterers and is offers orders of magnitude improvement in run time over the most performant $k$-means alternatives.


MetaGraphLoc: A Graph-based Meta-learning Scheme for Indoor Localization via Sensor Fusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate indoor localization remains challenging due to variations in wireless signal environments and limited data availability. This paper introduces MetaGraphLoc, a novel system leveraging sensor fusion, graph neural networks (GNNs), and meta-learning to overcome these limitations. MetaGraphLoc integrates received signal strength indicator measurements with inertial measurement unit data to enhance localization accuracy. Our proposed GNN architecture, featuring dynamic edge construction (DEC), captures the spatial relationships between access points and underlying data patterns. MetaGraphLoc employs a meta-learning framework to adapt the GNN model to new environments with minimal data collection, significantly reducing calibration efforts. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of MetaGraphLoc. Data fusion reduces localization error by 15.92%, underscoring its importance. The GNN with DEC outperforms traditional deep neural networks by up to 30.89%, considering accuracy. Furthermore, the meta-learning approach enables efficient adaptation to new environments, minimizing data collection requirements. These advancements position MetaGraphLoc as a promising solution for indoor localization, paving the way for improved navigation and location-based services in the ever-evolving Internet of Things networks.


MTS-UNMixers: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Channel-Time Dual Unmixing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multivariate time series data provide a robust framework for future predictions by leveraging information across multiple dimensions, ensuring broad applicability in practical scenarios. However, their high dimensionality and mixing patterns pose significant challenges in establishing an interpretable and explicit mapping between historical and future series, as well as extracting long-range feature dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose a channel-time dual unmixing network for multivariate time series forecasting (named MTS-UNMixer), which decomposes the entire series into critical bases and coefficients across both the time and channel dimensions. This approach establishes a robust sharing mechanism between historical and future series, enabling accurate representation and enhancing physical interpretability. Specifically, MTS-UNMixers represent sequences over time as a mixture of multiple trends and cycles, with the time-correlated representation coefficients shared across both historical and future time periods. In contrast, sequence over channels can be decomposed into multiple tick-wise bases, which characterize the channel correlations and are shared across the whole series. To estimate the shared time-dependent coefficients, a vanilla Mamba network is employed, leveraging its alignment with directional causality. Conversely, a bidirectional Mamba network is utilized to model the shared channel-correlated bases, accommodating noncausal relationships. Experimental results show that MTS-UNMixers significantly outperform existing methods on multiple benchmark datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/ZHU-0108/MTS-UNMixers.


Machine Learning and Multi-source Remote Sensing in Forest Carbon Stock Estimation: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantifying forest carbon is crucial for informing decisions and policies that will protect the planet. Machine learning (ML) and remote sensing (RS) techniques have been used to do this task more effectively, yet there lacks a systematic review on the most recent ML methods and RS combinations, especially with the consideration of forest characteristics. This study systematically analyzed 25 papers meeting strict inclusion criteria from over 80 related studies, identifying 28 ML methods and key combinations of RS data. Random Forest had the most frequently appearance (88% of studies), while Extreme Gradient Boosting showed superior performance in 75% of the studies in which it was compared with other methods. Sentinel-1 emerged as the most utilized remote sensing source, with multi-sensor approaches (e.g., Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and LiDAR) proving especially effective. Our findings provide grounds for recommending best practices in integrating machine learning and remote sensing for accurate and scalable forest carbon stock estimation.


From Fairness to Infinity: Outcome-Indistinguishable (Omni)Prediction in Evolving Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Professional networks provide invaluable entree to opportunity through referrals and introductions. A rich literature shows they also serve to entrench and even exacerbate a status quo of privilege and disadvantage. Hiring platforms, equipped with the ability to nudge link formation, provide a tantalizing opening for beneficial structural change. We anticipate that key to this prospect will be the ability to estimate the likelihood of edge formation in an evolving graph. Outcome-indistinguishable prediction algorithms ensure that the modeled world is indistinguishable from the real world by a family of statistical tests. Omnipredictors ensure that predictions can be post-processed to yield loss minimization competitive with respect to a benchmark class of predictors for many losses simultaneously, with appropriate post-processing. We begin by observing that, by combining a slightly modified form of the online K29 star algorithm of Vovk (2007) with basic facts from the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, one can derive simple and efficient online algorithms satisfying outcome indistinguishability and omniprediction, with guarantees that improve upon, or are complementary to, those currently known. This is of independent interest. We apply these techniques to evolving graphs, obtaining online outcome-indistinguishable omnipredictors for rich -- possibly infinite -- sets of distinguishers that capture properties of pairs of nodes, and their neighborhoods. This yields, inter alia, multicalibrated predictions of edge formation with respect to pairs of demographic groups, and the ability to simultaneously optimize loss as measured by a variety of social welfare functions.


Improving the Convergence Rates of Forward Gradient Descent with Repeated Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forward gradient descent (FGD) has been proposed as a biologically more plausible alternative of gradient descent as it can be computed without backward pass. Considering the linear model with $d$ parameters, previous work has found that the prediction error of FGD is, however, by a factor $d$ slower than the prediction error of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). In this paper we show that by computing $\ell$ FGD steps based on each training sample, this suboptimality factor becomes $d/(\ell \wedge d)$ and thus the suboptimality of the rate disappears if $\ell \gtrsim d.$ We also show that FGD with repeated sampling can adapt to low-dimensional structure in the input distribution. The main mathematical challenge lies in controlling the dependencies arising from the repeated sampling process.


Natural Language Understanding and Inference with MLLM in Visual Question Answering: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual Question Answering (VQA) is a challenge task that combines natural language processing and computer vision techniques and gradually becomes a benchmark test task in multimodal large language models (MLLMs). The goal of our survey is to provide an overview of the development of VQA and a detailed description of the latest models with high timeliness. This survey gives an up-to-date synthesis of natural language understanding of images and text, as well as the knowledge reasoning module based on image-question information on the core VQA tasks. In addition, we elaborate on recent advances in extracting and fusing modal information with vision-language pretraining models and multimodal large language models in VQA. We also exhaustively review the progress of knowledge reasoning in VQA by detailing the extraction of internal knowledge and the introduction of external knowledge. Finally, we present the datasets of VQA and different evaluation metrics and discuss possible directions for future work.


A Machine Learning-based Anomaly Detection Framework in Life Insurance Contracts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Life insurance, like other forms of insurance, relies heavily on large volumes of data. The business model is based on an exchange where companies receive payments in return for the promise to provide coverage in case of an accident. Thus, trust in the integrity of the data stored in databases is crucial. One method to ensure data reliability is the automatic detection of anomalies. While this approach is highly useful, it is also challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data that distinguish between normal and anomalous contracts or inter\-actions. This manuscript discusses several classical and modern unsupervised anomaly detection methods and compares their performance across two different datasets. In order to facilitate the adoption of these methods by companies, this work also explores ways to automate the process, making it accessible even to non-data scientists.


Maximally Separated Active Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active Learning aims to optimize performance while minimizing annotation costs by selecting the most informative samples from an unlabelled pool. Traditional uncertainty sampling often leads to sampling bias by choosing similar uncertain samples. We propose an active learning method that utilizes fixed equiangular hyperspherical points as class prototypes, ensuring consistent inter-class separation and robust feature representations. Our approach introduces Maximally Separated Active Learning (MSAL) for uncertainty sampling and a combined strategy (MSAL-D) for incorporating diversity. This method eliminates the need for costly clustering steps, while maintaining diversity through hyperspherical uniformity. We demonstrate strong performance over existing active learning techniques across five benchmark datasets, highlighting the method's effectiveness and integration ease. The code is available on GitHub.


DWCL: Dual-Weighted Contrastive Learning for Multi-View Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-view contrastive clustering (MVCC) has gained significant attention for generating consistent clustering structures from multiple views through contrastive learning. However, most existing MVCC methods create cross-views by combining any two views, leading to a high volume of unreliable pairs. Furthermore, these approaches often overlook discrepancies in multi-view representations, resulting in representation degeneration. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel model called Dual-Weighted Contrastive Learning (DWCL) for Multi-View Clustering. Specifically, to reduce the impact of unreliable cross-views, we introduce an innovative Best-Other (B-O) contrastive mechanism that enhances the representation of individual views at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we develop a dual weighting strategy that combines a view quality weight, reflecting the quality of each view, with a view discrepancy weight. This approach effectively mitigates representation degeneration by downplaying cross-views that are both low in quality and high in discrepancy. We theoretically validate the efficiency of the B-O contrastive mechanism and the effectiveness of the dual weighting strategy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DWCL outperforms previous methods across eight multi-view datasets, showcasing superior performance and robustness in MVCC. Specifically, our method achieves absolute accuracy improvements of 5.4\% and 5.6\% compared to state-of-the-art methods on the Caltech6V7 and MSRCv1 datasets, respectively.