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 Statistical Learning


Improved implicit diffusion model with knowledge distillation to estimate the spatial distribution density of carbon stock in remote sensing imagery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The forest serves as the most significant terrestrial carbon stock mechanism, effectively reducing atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations and mitigating climate change. Remote sensing provides high data accuracy and enables large-scale observations. Optical images facilitate long-term monitoring, which is crucial for future carbon stock estimation studies. This study focuses on Huize County, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, China, utilizing GF-1 WFV satellite imagery. The KD-VGG and KD-UNet modules were introduced for initial feature extraction, and the improved implicit diffusion model (IIDM) was proposed. The results showed: (1) The VGG module improved initial feature extraction, improving accuracy, and reducing inference time with optimized model parameters. (2) The Cross-attention + MLPs module enabled effective feature fusion, establishing critical relationships between global and local features, achieving high-accuracy estimation. (3) The IIDM model, a novel contribution, demonstrated the highest estimation accuracy with an RMSE of 12.17\%, significantly improving by 41.69\% to 42.33\% compared to the regression model. In carbon stock estimation, the generative model excelled in extracting deeper features, significantly outperforming other models, demonstrating the feasibility of AI-generated content in quantitative remote sensing. The 16-meter resolution estimates provide a robust basis for tailoring forest carbon sink regulations, enhancing regional carbon stock management.


Evolving Markov Chains: Unsupervised Mode Discovery and Recognition from Data Streams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world processes, like in the context of activity tracking, biological time series, or industrial monitoring, often switch behavior over time. Such behavior switches can be modeled as transitions between higher-level \emph{modes} (e.g., running, walking, etc.). Yet all modes are usually not previously known, often exhibit vastly differing transition probabilities, and can switch unpredictably. Thus, to track behavior changes of live, real-world processes, this study proposes an online and efficient method to construct Evolving Markov chains (EMCs). EMCs adaptively track transition probabilities, automatically discover modes, and detect mode switches in an online manner. In contrast to previous work, EMCs are of arbitrary order, the proposed update scheme does not rely on tracking windows, only updates the relevant region of the probability tensor, and enjoys geometric convergence of the expected estimates. Our evaluation of synthetic data and real-world applications on human activity recognition, electric motor condition monitoring, and eye-state recognition from electroencephalography (EEG) measurements illustrates the versatility of the approach and points to the potential of EMCs to efficiently track, model, and understand live, real-world processes.


Adversarial Training in Low-Label Regimes with Margin-Based Interpolation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial training has emerged as an effective approach to train robust neural network models that are resistant to adversarial attacks, even in low-label regimes where labeled data is scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel semi-supervised adversarial training approach that enhances both robustness and natural accuracy by generating effective adversarial examples. Our method begins by applying linear interpolation between clean and adversarial examples to create interpolated adversarial examples that cross decision boundaries by a controlled margin. This sample-aware strategy tailors adversarial examples to the characteristics of each data point, enabling the model to learn from the most informative perturbations. Additionally, we propose a global epsilon scheduling strategy that progressively adjusts the upper bound of perturbation strengths during training. The combination of these strategies allows the model to develop increasingly complex decision boundaries with better robustness and natural accuracy. Empirical evaluations show that our approach effectively enhances performance against various adversarial attacks, such as PGD and AutoAttack.


Integrating Machine Learning and Quantum Circuits for Proton Affinity Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key step in interpreting gas-phase ion mobility coupled with mass spectrometry (IM-MS) data for unknown structure prediction involves identifying the most favorable protonated structure. In the gas phase, the site of protonation is determined using proton affinity (PA) measurements. Currently, mass spectrometry and ab initio computation methods are widely used to evaluate PA; however, both methods are resource-intensive and time-consuming. Therefore, there is a critical need for efficient methods to estimate PA, enabling the rapid identification of the most favorable protonation site in complex organic molecules with multiple proton binding sites. In this work, we developed a fast and accurate method for PA prediction by using multiple descriptors in combination with machine learning (ML) models. Using a comprehensive set of 186 descriptors, our model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with an R2 of 0.96 and a MAE of 2.47kcal/mol, comparable to experimental uncertainty. Furthermore, we designed quantum circuits as feature encoders for a classical neural network. To evaluate the effectiveness of this hybrid quantum-classical model, we compared its performance with traditional ML models using a reduced feature set derived from the full set. The result showed that this hybrid model achieved consistent performance comparable to traditional ML models with the same reduced feature set on both a noiseless simulator and real quantum hardware, highlighting the potential of quantum machine learning for accurate and efficient PA predictions.


Verbalized Representation Learning for Interpretable Few-Shot Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Humans recognize objects after observing only a few examples, a remarkable capability enabled by their inherent language understanding of the real-world environment. Developing verbalized and interpretable representation can significantly improve model generalization in low-data settings. In this work, we propose Verbalized Representation Learning (VRL), a novel approach for automatically extracting human-interpretable features for object recognition using few-shot data. Our method uniquely captures inter-class differences and intra-class commonalities in the form of natural language by employing a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to identify key discriminative features between different classes and shared characteristics within the same class. These verbalized features are then mapped to numeric vectors through the VLM. The resulting feature vectors can be further utilized to train and infer with downstream classifiers. Experimental results show that, at the same model scale, VRL achieves a 24% absolute improvement over prior state-of-the-art methods while using 95% less data and a smaller mode. Furthermore, compared to human-labeled attributes, the features learned by VRL exhibit a 20% absolute gain when used for downstream classification tasks. Code is available at: https://github.com/joeyy5588/VRL/tree/main.


KACDP: A Highly Interpretable Credit Default Prediction Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In today's financial field, individual credit risk prediction has become a crucial part in the risk management of financial institutions. Accurate default prediction can not only help financial institutions significantly reduce losses but also significantly improve the utilization rate of funds, thereby enhancing their competitiveness in the market [1] [2]. With the rapid development of financial technology, numerous machine learning and deep learning techniques are gradually being widely applied in credit risk assessment. However, the existing various methods inevitably expose certain limitations when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear data, among which the problems of interpretability and transparency are the most prominent [3]. Traditional credit risk prediction methods mainly include two categories: statistical models and machine learning models. The typical representative of statistical models, such as Logistic regression [4], has the advantage of being simple and easy to use. However, when dealing with complex data, due to relatively strict assumptions, it is often difficult to effectively capture nonlinear relationships. Machine learning models, such as Random Forest (RF) [5], Support Vector Machine (SVM) [6], and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBoost) [7], although they perform relatively well in handling high-dimensional data, their interpretability is relatively poor and it is difficult to provide a clear and transparent decision-making process. Deep learning models, like Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) [8] and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) [9], although they have strong expressive ability, in the practical application in the financial field, their black-box characteristics cause the model to severely lack transparency and interpretability, which undoubtedly becomes a major problem in the strictly regulated financial industry [10].


Dynamic Logistic Ensembles with Recursive Probability and Automatic Subset Splitting for Enhanced Binary Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel approach to binary classification using dynamic logistic ensemble models. The proposed method addresses the challenges posed by datasets containing inherent internal clusters that lack explicit feature-based separations. By extending traditional logistic regression, we develop an algorithm that automatically partitions the dataset into multiple subsets, constructing an ensemble of logistic models to enhance classification accuracy. A key innovation in this work is the recursive probability calculation, derived through algebraic manipulation and mathematical induction, which enables scalable and efficient model construction. Compared to traditional ensemble methods such as Bagging and Boosting, our approach maintains interpretability while offering competitive performance. Furthermore, we systematically employ maximum likelihood and cost functions to facilitate the analytical derivation of recursive gradients as functions of ensemble depth. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated on a custom dataset created by introducing noise and shifting data to simulate group structures, resulting in significant performance improvements with layers. Implemented in Python, this work balances computational efficiency with theoretical rigor, providing a robust and interpretable solution for complex classification tasks with broad implications for machine learning applications. Code at https://github.com/ensemble-art/Dynamic-Logistic-Ensembles


DECODE: Domain-aware Continual Domain Expansion for Motion Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Motion prediction is critical for autonomous vehicles to effectively navigate complex environments and accurately anticipate the behaviors of other traffic participants. As autonomous driving continues to evolve, the need to assimilate new and varied driving scenarios necessitates frequent model updates through retraining. To address these demands, we introduce DECODE, a novel continual learning framework that begins with a pretrained generalized model and incrementally develops specialized models for distinct domains. Unlike existing continual learning approaches that attempt to develop a unified model capable of generalizing across diverse scenarios, DECODE uniquely balances specialization with generalization, dynamically adjusting to real-time demands. The proposed framework leverages a hypernetwork to generate model parameters, significantly reducing storage requirements, and incorporates a normalizing flow mechanism for real-time model selection based on likelihood estimation. This integration ensures optimal performance in familiar conditions while maintaining robustness in unfamiliar scenarios. Extensive evaluations confirm the effectiveness of the framework, achieving a notably low forgetting rate of 0.044 and an average minADE of 0.584 m, significantly surpassing traditional learning strategies and demonstrating adaptability across a wide range of driving OTION prediction has attracted significant attention in recent years, finding applications across a wide array of fields. It plays a critical role in the development of autonomous vehicles, enabling them to understand complex scenarios and data [10]-[15], yielding successful performances on several anticipate the future behaviors of other traffic participants [1]- prominent open datasets [16]-[18].


Automating grapevine LAI features estimation with UAV imagery and machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The leaf area index determines crop health and growth. Traditional methods for calculating it are time-consuming, destructive, costly, and limited to a scale. In this study, we automate the index estimation method using drone image data of grapevine plants and a machine learning model. Traditional feature extraction and deep learning methods are used to obtain helpful information from the data and enhance the performance of the different machine learning models employed for the leaf area index prediction. The results showed that deep learning based feature extraction is more effective than traditional methods. The new approach is a significant improvement over old methods, offering a faster, non-destructive, and cost-effective leaf area index calculation, which enhances precision agriculture practices.


SoftmAP: Software-Hardware Co-design for Integer-Only Softmax on Associative Processors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Recent research efforts focus on reducing the computational and memory overheads of Large Language Models (LLMs) to make them feasible on resource-constrained devices. Despite advancements in compression techniques, non-linear operators like Softmax and Layernorm remain bottlenecks due to their sensitivity to quantization. We propose SoftmAP, a softwarehardware co-design methodology that implements an integeronly low-precision Softmax using In-Memory Compute (IMC) hardware. Our method achieves up to three orders of magnitude improvement in the energy-delay product compared to A100 and RTX3090 GPUs, making LLMs more deployable without compromising performance. Softmax contributes up to 38% of the run time for longer sequence lengths.