Statistical Learning
Scalable Out-of-distribution Robustness in the Presence of Unobserved Confounders
Prashant, Parjanya, Khatami, Seyedeh Baharan, Ribeiro, Bruno, Salimi, Babak
We consider the task of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, where the distribution shift is due to an unobserved confounder ($Z$) affecting both the covariates ($X$) and the labels ($Y$). In this setting, traditional assumptions of covariate and label shift are unsuitable due to the confounding, which introduces heterogeneity in the predictor, i.e., $\hat{Y} = f_Z(X)$. OOD generalization differs from traditional domain adaptation by not assuming access to the covariate distribution ($X^\text{te}$) of the test samples during training. These conditions create a challenging scenario for OOD robustness: (a) $Z^\text{tr}$ is an unobserved confounder during training, (b) $P^\text{te}{Z} \neq P^\text{tr}{Z}$, (c) $X^\text{te}$ is unavailable during training, and (d) the posterior predictive distribution depends on $P^\text{te}(Z)$, i.e., $\hat{Y} = E_{P^\text{te}(Z)}[f_Z(X)]$. In general, accurate predictions are unattainable in this scenario, and existing literature has proposed complex predictors based on identifiability assumptions that require multiple additional variables. Our work investigates a set of identifiability assumptions that tremendously simplify the predictor, whose resulting elegant simplicity outperforms existing approaches.
Development of Low-Cost IoT Units for Thermal Comfort Measurement and AC Energy Consumption Prediction System
Chen, Yutong, Sumiyoshi, Daisuke, Sakai, Riki, Yamamoto, Takahiro, Ueno, Takahiro, Oh, Jewon
In response to the substantial energy consumption in buildings, the Japanese government initiated the BI-Tech (Behavioral Insights X Technology) project in 2019, aimed at promoting voluntary energy-saving behaviors through the utilization of AI and IoT technologies. Our study aimed at small and medium-sized office buildings introduces a cost-effective IoT-based BI-Tech system, utilizing the Raspberry Pi 4B+ platform for real-time monitoring of indoor thermal conditions and air conditioner (AC) set-point temperature. Employing machine learning and image recognition, the system analyzes data to calculate the PMV index and predict energy consumption changes due to temperature adjustments. The integration of mobile and desktop applications conveys this information to users, encouraging energy-efficient behavior modifications. The machine learning model achieved with an R2 value of 97%, demonstrating the system's efficiency in promoting energy-saving habits among users.
Graph Neural Networks for Heart Failure Prediction on an EHR-Based Patient Similarity Graph
Boll, Heloisa Oss, Amirahmadi, Ali, Soliman, Amira, Byttner, Stefan, Recamonde-Mendoza, Mariana
Objective: In modern healthcare, accurately predicting diseases is a crucial matter. This study introduces a novel approach using graph neural networks (GNNs) and a Graph Transformer (GT) to predict the incidence of heart failure (HF) on a patient similarity graph at the next hospital visit. Materials and Methods: We used electronic health records (EHR) from the MIMIC-III dataset and applied the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm to create a patient similarity graph using embeddings from diagnoses, procedures, and medications. Three models - GraphSAGE, Graph Attention Network (GAT), and Graph Transformer (GT) - were implemented to predict HF incidence. Model performance was evaluated using F1 score, AUROC, and AUPRC metrics, and results were compared against baseline algorithms. An interpretability analysis was performed to understand the model's decision-making process. Results: The GT model demonstrated the best performance (F1 score: 0.5361, AUROC: 0.7925, AUPRC: 0.5168). Although the Random Forest (RF) baseline achieved a similar AUPRC value, the GT model offered enhanced interpretability due to the use of patient relationships in the graph structure. A joint analysis of attention weights, graph connectivity, and clinical features provided insight into model predictions across different classification groups. Discussion and Conclusion: Graph-based approaches such as GNNs provide an effective framework for predicting HF. By leveraging a patient similarity graph, GNNs can capture complex relationships in EHR data, potentially improving prediction accuracy and clinical interpretability.
An Approach Towards Learning K-means-friendly Deep Latent Representation
Clustering is a long-standing problem area in data mining. The centroid-based classical approaches to clustering mainly face difficulty in the case of high dimensional inputs such as images. With the advent of deep neural networks, a common approach to this problem is to map the data to some latent space of comparatively lower dimensions and then do the clustering in that space. Network architectures adopted for this are generally autoencoders that reconstruct a given input in the output. To keep the input in some compact form, the encoder in AE's learns to extract useful features that get decoded at the reconstruction end. A well-known centroid-based clustering algorithm is K-means. In the context of deep feature learning, recent works have empirically shown the importance of learning the representations and the cluster centroids together. However, in this aspect of joint learning, recently a continuous variant of K-means has been proposed; where the softmax function is used in place of argmax to learn the clustering and network parameters jointly using stochastic gradient descent (SGD). However, unlike K-means, where the input space stays constant, here the learning of the centroid is done in parallel to the learning of the latent space for every batch of data. Such batch updates disagree with the concept of classical K-means, where the clustering space remains constant as it is the input space itself. To this end, we propose to alternatively learn a clustering-friendly data representation and K-means based cluster centers. Experiments on some benchmark datasets have shown improvements of our approach over the previous approaches.
Do Mice Grok? Glimpses of Hidden Progress During Overtraining in Sensory Cortex
Kumar, Tanishq, Bordelon, Blake, Pehlevan, Cengiz, Murthy, Venkatesh N., Gershman, Samuel J.
Does learning of task-relevant representations stop when behavior stops changing? Motivated by recent theoretical advances in machine learning and the intuitive observation that human experts continue to learn from practice even after mastery, we hypothesize that task-specific representation learning can continue, even when behavior plateaus. In a novel reanalysis of recently published neural data, we find evidence for such learning in posterior piriform cortex of mice following continued training on a task, long after behavior saturates at near-ceiling performance ("overtraining"). This learning is marked by an increase in decoding accuracy from piriform neural populations and improved performance on held-out generalization tests. We demonstrate that class representations in cortex continue to separate during overtraining, so that examples that were incorrectly classified at the beginning of overtraining can abruptly be correctly classified later on, despite no changes in behavior during that time. We hypothesize this hidden yet rich learning takes the form of approximate margin maximization; we validate this and other predictions in the neural data, as well as build and interpret a simple synthetic model that recapitulates these phenomena. We conclude by showing how this model of late-time feature learning implies an explanation for the empirical puzzle of overtraining reversal in animal learning, where task-specific representations are more robust to particular task changes because the learned features can be reused.
Transfer Learning for High-dimensional Quantile Regression with Distribution Shift
Bai, Ruiqi, Zhang, Yijiao, Yang, Hanbo, Zhu, Zhongyi
Information from related source studies can often enhance the findings of a target study. However, the distribution shift between target and source studies can severely impact the efficiency of knowledge transfer. In the high-dimensional regression setting, existing transfer approaches mainly focus on the parameter shift. In this paper, we focus on the high-dimensional quantile regression with knowledge transfer under three types of distribution shift: parameter shift, covariate shift, and residual shift. We propose a novel transferable set and a new transfer framework to address the above three discrepancies. Non-asymptotic estimation error bounds and source detection consistency are established to validate the availability and superiority of our method in the presence of distribution shift. Additionally, an orthogonal debiased approach is proposed for statistical inference with knowledge transfer, leading to sharper asymptotic results. Extensive simulation results as well as real data applications further demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed procedure.
The brain versus AI: World-model-based versatile circuit computation underlying diverse functions in the neocortex and cerebellum
AI's significant recent advances using general-purpose circuit computations offer a potential window into how the neocortex and cerebellum of the brain are able to achieve a diverse range of functions across sensory, cognitive, and motor domains, despite their uniform circuit structures. However, comparing the brain and AI is challenging unless clear similarities exist, and past reviews have been limited to comparison of brain-inspired vision AI and the visual neocortex. Here, to enable comparisons across diverse functional domains, we subdivide circuit computation into three elements -- circuit structure, input/outputs, and the learning algorithm -- and evaluate the similarities for each element. With this novel approach, we identify wide-ranging similarities and convergent evolution in the brain and AI, providing new insights into key concepts in neuroscience. Furthermore, inspired by processing mechanisms of AI, we propose a new theory that integrates established neuroscience theories, particularly the theories of internal models and the mirror neuron system. Both the neocortex and cerebellum predict future world events from past information and learn from prediction errors, thereby acquiring models of the world. These models enable three core processes: (1) Prediction -- generating future information, (2) Understanding -- interpreting the external world via compressed and abstracted sensory information, and (3) Generation -- repurposing the future-information generation mechanism to produce other types of outputs. The universal application of these processes underlies the ability of the neocortex and cerebellum to accomplish diverse functions with uniform circuits. Our systematic approach, insights, and theory promise groundbreaking advances in understanding the brain.
On the Performance Analysis of Momentum Method: A Frequency Domain Perspective
Li, Xianliang, Luo, Jun, Zheng, Zhiwei, Wang, Hanxiao, Luo, Li, Wen, Lingkun, Wu, Linlong, Xu, Sheng
Momentum-based optimizers are widely adopted for training neural networks. However, the optimal selection of momentum coefficients remains elusive. This uncertainty impedes a clear understanding of the role of momentum in stochastic gradient methods. In this paper, we present a frequency domain analysis framework that interprets the momentum method as a time-variant filter for gradients, where adjustments to momentum coefficients modify the filter characteristics. Our experiments support this perspective and provide a deeper understanding of the mechanism involved. Moreover, our analysis reveals the following significant findings: high-frequency gradient components are undesired in the late stages of training; preserving the original gradient in the early stages, and gradually amplifying low-frequency gradient components during training both enhance generalization performance. Based on these insights, we propose Frequency Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum (FSGDM), a heuristic optimizer that dynamically adjusts the momentum filtering characteristic with an empirically effective dynamic magnitude response. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of FSGDM over conventional momentum optimizers.
Knowledge-Data Fusion Based Source-Free Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation for Seizure Subtype Classification
Peng, Ruimin, An, Jiayu, Wu, Dongrui
Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based seizure subtype classification enhances clinical diagnosis efficiency. Source-free semi-supervised domain adaptation (SF-SSDA), which transfers a pre-trained model to a new dataset with no source data and limited labeled target data, can be used for privacy-preserving seizure subtype classification. This paper considers two challenges in SF-SSDA for EEG-based seizure subtype classification: 1) How to effectively fuse both raw EEG data and expert knowledge in classifier design? 2) How to align the source and target domain distributions for SF-SSDA? We propose a Knowledge-Data Fusion based SF-SSDA approach, KDF-MutualSHOT, for EEG-based seizure subtype classification. In source model training, KDF uses Jensen-Shannon Divergence to facilitate mutual learning between a feature-driven Decision Tree-based model and a data-driven Transformer-based model. To adapt KDF to a new target dataset, an SF-SSDA algorithm, MutualSHOT, is developed, which features a consistency-based pseudo-label selection strategy. Experiments on the public TUSZ and CHSZ datasets demonstrated that KDF-MutualSHOT outperformed other supervised and source-free domain adaptation approaches in cross-subject seizure subtype classification.
One Model for One Graph: A New Perspective for Pretraining with Cross-domain Graphs
Liu, Jingzhe, Mao, Haitao, Chen, Zhikai, Fan, Wenqi, Ju, Mingxuan, Zhao, Tong, Shah, Neil, Tang, Jiliang
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool to capture intricate network patterns, achieving success across different domains. However, existing GNNs require careful domain-specific architecture designs and training from scratch on each dataset, leading to an expertise-intensive process with difficulty in generalizing across graphs from different domains. Therefore, it can be hard for practitioners to infer which GNN model can generalize well to graphs from their domains. To address this challenge, we propose a novel cross-domain pretraining framework, "one model for one graph," which overcomes the limitations of previous approaches that failed to use a single GNN to capture diverse graph patterns across domains with significant gaps. Specifically, we pretrain a bank of expert models, with each one corresponding to a specific dataset. When inferring to a new graph, gating functions choose a subset of experts to effectively integrate prior model knowledge while avoiding negative transfer. Extensive experiments consistently demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method on both link prediction and node classification tasks.