Statistical Learning
Node Classification With Integrated Reject Option
Bhaskar, Uday, Gayen, Jayadratha, Sharma, Charu, Manwani, Naresh
One of the key tasks in graph learning is node classification. While Graph neural networks have been used for various applications, their adaptivity to reject option setting is not previously explored. In this paper, we propose NCwR, a novel approach to node classification in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with an integrated reject option, which allows the model to abstain from making predictions when uncertainty is high. We propose both cost-based and coverage-based methods for classification with abstention in node classification setting using GNNs. We perform experiments using our method on three standard citation network datasets Cora, Citeseer and Pubmed and compare with relevant baselines. We also model the Legal judgment prediction problem on ILDC dataset as a node classification problem where nodes represent legal cases and edges represent citations. We further interpret the model by analyzing the cases that the model abstains from predicting by visualizing which part of the input features influenced this decision.
LEP-QNN: Loan Eligibility Prediction Using Quantum Neural Networks
Innan, Nouhaila, Marchisio, Alberto, Bennai, Mohamed, Shafique, Muhammad
Predicting loan eligibility with high accuracy remains a significant challenge in the finance sector. Accurate predictions enable financial institutions to make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and effectively adapt services to meet customer needs. However, the complexity and the high-dimensional nature of financial data have always posed significant challenges to achieving this level of precision. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel approach that employs Quantum Machine Learning (QML) for Loan Eligibility Prediction using Quantum Neural Networks (LEP-QNN).Our innovative approach achieves an accuracy of 98% in predicting loan eligibility from a single, comprehensive dataset. This performance boost is attributed to the strategic implementation of a dropout mechanism within the quantum circuit, aimed at minimizing overfitting and thereby improving the model's predictive reliability. In addition, our exploration of various optimizers leads to identifying the most efficient setup for our LEP-QNN framework, optimizing its performance. We also rigorously evaluate the resilience of LEP-QNN under different quantum noise scenarios, ensuring its robustness and dependability for quantum computing environments. This research showcases the potential of QML in financial predictions and establishes a foundational guide for advancing QML technologies, marking a step towards developing advanced, quantum-driven financial decision-making tools.
Experience-driven discovery of planning strategies
One explanation for how people can plan efficiently despite limited cognitive resources is that we possess a set of adaptive planning strategies and know when and how to use them. But how are these strategies acquired? While previous research has studied how individuals learn to choose among existing strategies, little is known about the process of forming new planning strategies. In this work, we propose that new planning strategies are discovered through metacognitive reinforcement learning. To test this, we designed a novel experiment to investigate the discovery of new planning strategies. We then present metacognitive reinforcement learning models and demonstrate their capability for strategy discovery as well as show that they provide a better explanation of human strategy discovery than alternative learning mechanisms. However, when fitted to human data, these models exhibit a slower discovery rate than humans, leaving room for improvement.
A Scalable Quantum Neural Network for Approximate SRBB-Based Unitary Synthesis
Belli, Giacomo, Mordacci, Marco, Amoretti, Michele
In this work, scalable quantum neural networks are introduced to approximate unitary evolutions through the Standard Recursive Block Basis (SRBB) and, subsequently, redesigned with a reduced number of CNOTs. This algebraic approach to the problem of unitary synthesis exploits Lie algebras and their topological features to obtain scalable parameterizations of unitary operators. First, the recursive algorithm that builds the SRBB is presented, framed in the original scalability scheme already known to the literature only from a theoretical point of view. Unexpectedly, 2-qubit systems emerge as a special case outside this scheme. Furthermore, an algorithm to reduce the number of CNOTs is proposed, thus deriving a new implementable scaling scheme that requires one single layer of approximation. From the mathematical algorithm, the scalable CNOT-reduced quantum neural network is implemented and its performance is assessed with a variety of different unitary matrices, both sparse and dense, up to 6 qubits via the PennyLane library. The effectiveness of the approximation is measured with different metrics in relation to two optimizers: a gradient-based method and the Nelder-Mead method. The approximate SRBB-based synthesis algorithm with CNOT-reduction is also tested on real hardware and compared with other valid approximation and decomposition methods available in the literature.
UTSD: Unified Time Series Diffusion Model
Ma, Xiangkai, Hong, Xiaobin, Li, Wenzhong, Lu, Sanglu
Transformer-based architectures have achieved unprecedented success in time series analysis. However, facing the challenge of across-domain modeling, existing studies utilize statistical prior as prompt engineering fails under the huge distribution shift among various domains. In this paper, a Unified Time Series Diffusion (UTSD) model is established for the first time to model the multi-domain probability distribution, utilizing the powerful probability distribution modeling ability of Diffusion. Unlike the autoregressive models that capture the conditional probabilities of the prediction horizon to the historical sequence, we use a diffusion denoising process to model the mixture distribution of the cross-domain data and generate the prediction sequence for the target domain directly utilizing conditional sampling. The proposed UTSD contains three pivotal designs: (1) The condition network captures the multi-scale fluctuation patterns from the observation sequence, which are utilized as context representations to guide the denoising network to generate the prediction sequence; (2) Adapter-based fine-tuning strategy, the multi-domain universal representation learned in the pretraining stage is utilized for downstream tasks in target domains; (3) The diffusion and denoising process on the actual sequence space, combined with the improved classifier free guidance as the conditional generation strategy, greatly improves the stability and accuracy of the downstream task. We conduct extensive experiments on mainstream benchmarks, and the pre-trained UTSD outperforms existing foundation models on all data domains, exhibiting superior zero-shot generalization ability. After training from scratch, UTSD achieves comparable performance against domain-specific proprietary models. The empirical results validate the potential of UTSD as a time series foundational model.
MILLION: A General Multi-Objective Framework with Controllable Risk for Portfolio Management
Deng, Liwei, Wang, Tianfu, Zhao, Yan, Zheng, Kai
Portfolio management is an important yet challenging task in AI for FinTech, which aims to allocate investors' budgets among different assets to balance the risk and return of an investment. In this study, we propose a general Multi-objectIve framework with controLLable rIsk for pOrtfolio maNagement (MILLION), which consists of two main phases, i.e., return-related maximization and risk control. Specifically, in the return-related maximization phase, we introduce two auxiliary objectives, i.e., return rate prediction, and return rate ranking, combined with portfolio optimization to remit the overfitting problem and improve the generalization of the trained model to future markets. Subsequently, in the risk control phase, we propose two methods, i.e., portfolio interpolation and portfolio improvement, to achieve fine-grained risk control and fast risk adaption to a user-specified risk level. For the portfolio interpolation method, we theoretically prove that the risk can be perfectly controlled if the to-be-set risk level is in a proper interval. In addition, we also show that the return rate of the adjusted portfolio after portfolio interpolation is no less than that of the min-variance optimization, as long as the model in the reward maximization phase is effective. Furthermore, the portfolio improvement method can achieve greater return rates while keeping the same risk level compared to portfolio interpolation. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework.
A Granger-Causal Perspective on Gradient Descent with Application to Pruning
Shah, Aditya, Challa, Aditya, Danda, Sravan, Mathur, Archana, Saha, Snehanshu
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is the main approach to optimizing neural networks. Several generalization properties of deep networks, such as convergence to a flatter minima, are believed to arise from SGD. This article explores the causality aspect of gradient descent. Specifically, we show that the gradient descent procedure has an implicit granger-causal relationship between the reduction in loss and a change in parameters. By suitable modifications, we make this causal relationship explicit. A causal approach to gradient descent has many significant applications which allow greater control. In this article, we illustrate the significance of the causal approach using the application of Pruning. The causal approach to pruning has several interesting properties - (i) We observe a phase shift as the percentage of pruned parameters increase. Such phase shift is indicative of an optimal pruning strategy.
Leveraging Auxiliary Task Relevance for Enhanced Bearing Fault Diagnosis through Curriculum Meta-learning
Wang, Jinze, Jin, Jiong, Zhang, Tiehua, Chai, Boon Xian, Di Pietro, Adriano, Georgakopoulos, Dimitrios
The accurate diagnosis of machine breakdowns is crucial for maintaining operational safety in smart manufacturing. Despite the promise shown by deep learning in automating fault identification, the scarcity of labeled training data, particularly for equipment failure instances, poses a significant challenge. This limitation hampers the development of robust classification models. Existing methods like model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) do not adequately address variable working conditions, affecting knowledge transfer. To address these challenges, a Related Task Aware Curriculum Meta-learning (RT-ACM) enhanced fault diagnosis framework is proposed in this paper, inspired by human cognitive learning processes. RT-ACM improves training by considering the relevance of auxiliary sensor working conditions, adhering to the principle of ``paying more attention to more relevant knowledge", and focusing on ``easier first, harder later" curriculum sampling. This approach aids the meta-learner in achieving a superior convergence state. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of RT-ACM framework.
Using Platt's scaling for calibration after undersampling -- limitations and how to address them
Phelps, Nathan, Lizotte, Daniel J., Woolford, Douglas G.
When modelling data where the response is dichotomous and highly imbalanced, response-based sampling where a subset of the majority class is retained (i.e., undersampling) is often used to create more balanced training datasets prior to modelling. However, the models fit to this undersampled data, which we refer to as base models, generate predictions that are severely biased. There are several calibration methods that can be used to combat this bias, one of which is Platt's scaling. Here, a logistic regression model is used to model the relationship between the base model's original predictions and the response. Despite its popularity for calibrating models after undersampling, Platt's scaling was not designed for this purpose. Our work presents what we believe is the first detailed study focused on the validity of using Platt's scaling to calibrate models after undersampling. We show analytically, as well as via a simulation study and a case study, that Platt's scaling should not be used for calibration after undersampling without critical thought. If Platt's scaling would have been able to successfully calibrate the base model had it been trained on the entire dataset (i.e., without undersampling), then Platt's scaling might be appropriate for calibration after undersampling. If this is not the case, we recommend a modified version of Platt's scaling that fits a logistic generalized additive model to the logit of the base model's predictions, as it is both theoretically motivated and performed well across the settings considered in our study.
Preserve or Modify? Context-Aware Evaluation for Balancing Preservation and Modification in Text-Guided Image Editing
Kim, Yoonjeon, Ryu, Soohyun, Jung, Yeonsung, Lee, Hyunkoo, Kim, Joowon, Yang, June Yong, Hwang, Jaeryong, Yang, Eunho
The development of vision-language and generative models has significantly advanced text-guided image editing, which seeks the \textit{preservation} of core elements in the source image while implementing \textit{modifications} based on the target text. However, existing metrics have a \textbf{context-blindness} problem, indiscriminately applying the same evaluation criteria on completely different pairs of source image and target text, biasing towards either modification or preservation. Directional CLIP similarity, the only metric that considers both source image and target text, is also biased towards modification aspects and attends to irrelevant editing regions of the image. We propose \texttt{AugCLIP}, a \textbf{context-aware} metric that adaptively coordinates preservation and modification aspects, depending on the specific context of a given source image and target text. This is done by deriving the CLIP representation of an ideally edited image, that preserves the source image with necessary modifications to align with target text. More specifically, using a multi-modal large language model, \texttt{AugCLIP} augments the textual descriptions of the source and target, then calculates a modification vector through a hyperplane that separates source and target attributes in CLIP space. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets, encompassing a diverse range of editing scenarios, show that \texttt{AugCLIP} aligns remarkably well with human evaluation standards, outperforming existing metrics. The code will be open-sourced for community use.