Statistical Learning
Modeling Latent Non-Linear Dynamical System over Time Series
Fujiwara, Ren, Matsubara, Yasuko, Sakurai, Yasushi
We study the problem of modeling a non-linear dynamical system when given a time series by deriving equations directly from the data. Despite the fact that time series data are given as input, models for dynamics and estimation algorithms that incorporate long-term temporal dependencies are largely absent from existing studies. In this paper, we introduce a latent state to allow time-dependent modeling and formulate this problem as a dynamics estimation problem in latent states. We face multiple technical challenges, including (1) modeling latent non-linear dynamics and (2) solving circular dependencies caused by the presence of latent states. To tackle these challenging problems, we propose a new method, Latent Non-Linear equation modeling (LaNoLem), that can model a latent non-linear dynamical system and a novel alternating minimization algorithm for effectively estimating latent states and model parameters. In addition, we introduce criteria to control model complexity without human intervention. Compared with the state-of-the-art model, LaNoLem achieves competitive performance for estimating dynamics while outperforming other methods in prediction.
PSMGD: Periodic Stochastic Multi-Gradient Descent for Fast Multi-Objective Optimization
Xu, Mingjing, Ju, Peizhong, Liu, Jia, Yang, Haibo
Multi-objective optimization (MOO) lies at the core of many machine learning (ML) applications that involve multiple, potentially conflicting objectives (e.g., multi-task learning, multi-objective reinforcement learning, among many others). Despite the long history of MOO, recent years have witnessed a surge in interest within the ML community in the development of gradient manipulation algorithms for MOO, thanks to the availability of gradient information in many ML problems. However, existing gradient manipulation methods for MOO often suffer from long training times, primarily due to the need for computing dynamic weights by solving an additional optimization problem to determine a common descent direction that can decrease all objectives simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose a new and efficient algorithm called Periodic Stochastic Multi-Gradient Descent (PSMGD) to accelerate MOO. PSMGD is motivated by the key observation that dynamic weights across objectives exhibit small changes under minor updates over short intervals during the optimization process. Consequently, our PSMGD algorithm is designed to periodically compute these dynamic weights and utilizes them repeatedly, thereby effectively reducing the computational overload. Theoretically, we prove that PSMGD can achieve state-of-the-art convergence rates for strongly-convex, general convex, and non-convex functions. Additionally, we introduce a new computational complexity measure, termed backpropagation complexity, and demonstrate that PSMGD could achieve an objective-independent backpropagation complexity. Through extensive experiments, we verify that PSMGD can provide comparable or superior performance to state-of-the-art MOO algorithms while significantly reducing training time.
The Context of Crash Occurrence: A Complexity-Infused Approach Integrating Semantic, Contextual, and Kinematic Features
Wang, Meng, Noonan, Zach, Gershon, Pnina, Mehler, Bruce, Reimer, Bryan, Roberts, Shannon C.
Understanding the context of crash occurrence in complex driving environments is essential for improving traffic safety and advancing automated driving. Previous studies have used statistical models and deep learning to predict crashes based on semantic, contextual, or vehicle kinematic features, but none have examined the combined influence of these factors. In this study, we term the integration of these features ``roadway complexity''. This paper introduces a two-stage framework that integrates roadway complexity features for crash prediction. In the first stage, an encoder extracts hidden contextual information from these features, generating complexity-infused features. The second stage uses both original and complexity-infused features to predict crash likelihood, achieving an accuracy of 87.98\% with original features alone and 90.15\% with the added complexity-infused features. Ablation studies confirm that a combination of semantic, kinematic, and contextual features yields the best results, which emphasize their role in capturing roadway complexity. Additionally, complexity index annotations generated by the Large Language Model outperform those by Amazon Mechanical Turk, highlighting the potential of AI-based tools for accurate, scalable crash prediction systems.
Analyzing Fairness of Classification Machine Learning Model with Structured Dataset
Rashed, Ahmed, Kallich, Abdelkrim, Eltayeb, Mohamed
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have become integral to decision making in various domains, including healthcare, finance, education, and law enforcement. However, concerns about fairness and bias in these systems pose significant ethical and social challenges. This study investigates the fairness of ML models applied to structured datasets in classification tasks, highlighting the potential for biased predictions to perpetuate systemic inequalities. A publicly available dataset from Kaggle was selected for analysis, offering a realistic scenario for evaluating fairness in machine learning workflows. To assess and mitigate biases, three prominent fairness libraries; Fairlearn by Microsoft, AIF360 by IBM, and the What If Tool by Google were employed. These libraries provide robust frameworks for analyzing fairness, offering tools to evaluate metrics, visualize results, and implement bias mitigation strategies. The research aims to assess the extent of bias in the ML models, compare the effectiveness of these libraries, and derive actionable insights for practitioners. The findings reveal that each library has unique strengths and limitations in fairness evaluation and mitigation. By systematically comparing their capabilities, this study contributes to the growing field of ML fairness by providing practical guidance for integrating fairness tools into real world applications. These insights are intended to support the development of more equitable machine learning systems.
AI-Driven Health Monitoring of Distributed Computing Architecture: Insights from XGBoost and SHAP
Sun, Xiaoxuan, Yao, Yue, Wang, Xiaoye, Li, Pochun, Li, Xuan
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, its application in the optimization of complex computer systems is becoming more and more extensive. Edge computing is an efficient distributed computing architecture, and the health status of its nodes directly affects the performance and reliability of the entire system. In view of the lack of accuracy and interpretability of traditional methods in node health status judgment, this paper proposes a health status judgment method based on XGBoost and combines the SHAP method to analyze the interpretability of the model. Through experiments, it is verified that XGBoost has superior performance in processing complex features and nonlinear data of edge computing nodes, especially in capturing the impact of key features (such as response time and power consumption) on node status. SHAP value analysis further reveals the global and local importance of features, so that the model not only has high precision discrimination ability but also can provide intuitive explanations, providing data support for system optimization. Research shows that the combination of AI technology and computer system optimization can not only realize the intelligent monitoring of the health status of edge computing nodes but also provide a scientific basis for dynamic optimization scheduling, resource management and anomaly detection. In the future, with the in-depth development of AI technology, model dynamics, cross-node collaborative optimization and multimodal data fusion will become the focus of research, providing important support for the intelligent evolution of edge computing systems.
A comprehensive GeoAI review: Progress, Challenges and Outlooks
Boutayeb, Anasse, Lahsen-cherif, Iyad, Khadimi, Ahmed El
In recent years, Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) has gained traction in the most relevant research works and industrial applications, while also becoming involved in various fields of use. This paper offers a comprehensive review of GeoAI as a synergistic concept applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods and models to geospatial data. A preliminary study is carried out, identifying the methodology of the work, the research motivations, the issues and the directions to be tracked, followed by exploring how GeoAI can be used in various interesting fields of application, such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, disaster management and urban planning. Next, a statistical and semantic analysis is carried out, followed by a clear and precise presentation of the challenges facing GeoAI. Then, a concrete exploration of the future prospects is provided, based on several informations gathered during the census. To sum up, this paper provides a complete overview of the correlation between AI and the geospatial domain, while mentioning the researches conducted in this context, and emphasizing the close relationship linking GeoAI with other advanced concepts such as geographic information systems (GIS) and large-scale geospatial data, known as big geodata. This will enable researchers and scientific community to assess the state of progress in this promising field, and will help other interested parties to gain a better understanding of the issues involved.
Generalizable Representation Learning for fMRI-based Neurological Disorder Identification
Cui, Wenhui, Akrami, Haleh, Joshi, Anand A., Leahy, Richard M.
Despite the impressive advancements achieved using deep-learning for functional brain activity analysis, the heterogeneity of functional patterns and scarcity of imaging data still pose challenges in tasks such as identifying neurological disorders. For functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), while data may be abundantly available from healthy controls, clinical data is often scarce, especially for rare diseases, limiting the ability of models to identify clinically-relevant features. We overcome this limitation by introducing a novel representation learning strategy integrating meta-learning with self-supervised learning to improve the generalization from normal to clinical features. This approach enables generalization to challenging clinical tasks featuring scarce training data. We achieve this by leveraging self-supervised learning on the control dataset to focus on inherent features that are not limited to a particular supervised task and incorporating meta-learning to improve the generalization across domains. To explore the generalizability of the learned representations to unseen clinical applications, we apply the model to four distinct clinical datasets featuring scarce and heterogeneous data for neurological disorder classification. Results demonstrate the superiority of our representation learning strategy on diverse clinically-relevant tasks.
Real-valued continued fraction of straight lines
In an unbounded plane, straight lines are used extensively for mathematical analysis. They are tools of convenience. However, those with high slope values become unbounded at a faster rate than the independent variable. So, straight lines, in this work, are made to be bounded by introducing a parametric nonlinear term that is positive. The straight lines are transformed into bounded nonlinear curves that become unbounded at a much slower rate than the independent variable. This transforming equation can be expressed as a continued fraction of straight lines. The continued fraction is real-valued and converges to the solutions of the transforming equation. Following Euler's method, the continued fraction has been reduced into an infinite series. The usefulness of the bounding nature of continued fraction is demonstrated by solving the problem of image classification. Parameters estimated on the Fashion-MNIST dataset of greyscale images using continued fraction of regression lines have less variance, converge quickly and are more accurate than the linear counterpart. Moreover, this multi-dimensional parametric estimation problem can be expressed on $xy-$ plane using the parameters of the continued fraction and patterns emerge on planar plots.
Bilevel Learning with Inexact Stochastic Gradients
Salehi, Mohammad Sadegh, Mukherjee, Subhadip, Roberts, Lindon, Ehrhardt, Matthias J.
Bilevel learning has gained prominence in machine learning, inverse problems, and imaging applications, including hyperparameter optimization, learning data-adaptive regularizers, and optimizing forward operators. The large-scale nature of these problems has led to the development of inexact and computationally efficient methods. Existing adaptive methods predominantly rely on deterministic formulations, while stochastic approaches often adopt a doubly-stochastic framework with impractical variance assumptions, enforces a fixed number of lower-level iterations, and requires extensive tuning. In this work, we focus on bilevel learning with strongly convex lower-level problems and a nonconvex sum-of-functions in the upper-level. Stochasticity arises from data sampling in the upper-level which leads to inexact stochastic hypergradients. We establish their connection to state-of-the-art stochastic optimization theory for nonconvex objectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence of inexact stochastic bilevel optimization under mild assumptions. Our empirical results highlight significant speed-ups and improved generalization in imaging tasks such as image denoising and deblurring in comparison with adaptive deterministic bilevel methods.
GNN Applied to Ego-nets for Friend Suggestions
A major problem of making friend suggestions in social networks is the large size of social graphs, which can have hundreds of millions of people and tens of billions of connections. Classic methods based on heuristics or factorizations are often used to address the difficulties of scaling more complex models. However, the unsupervised nature of these methods can lead to suboptimal results. In this work, we introduce the Generalized Ego-network Friendship Score framework, which makes it possible to use complex supervised models without sacrificing scalability. The main principle of the framework is to reduce the problem of link prediction on a full graph to a series of low-scale tasks on ego-nets with subsequent aggregation of their results. Here, the underlying model takes an ego-net as input and produces a pairwise relevance matrix for its nodes. In addition, we develop the WalkGNN model which is capable of working effectively in the social network domain, where these graph-level link prediction tasks are heterogeneous, dynamic and featureless. To measure the accuracy of this model, we introduce the Ego-VK dataset that serves as an exact representation of the real-world problem that we are addressing. Offline experiments on the dataset show that our model outperforms all baseline methods, and a live A/B test demonstrates the growth of business metrics as a result of utilizing our approach.