K-medoids clustering is a popular variant of k-means clustering and widely used in pattern recognition and machine learning. A main drawback of k-medoids clustering is that an improper initialization can cause it to get trapped in local optima. An improved k-medoids clustering algorithm, called INCKM algorithm, which is the first to apply incremental initialization to k-medoids clustering, was recently proposed to overcome this drawback. The INCKM algorithm requires the construction of a subset of candidate medoids determined by one hyperparameter for initialization, and meanwhile, it always fails when dealing with imbalanced datasets with an incorrect hyperparameter selection. In this paper, we propose a novel k-medoids clustering algorithm, called incremental k-means++ (INCKPP) algorithm, which initializes with a novel incremental manner, attempting to optimally add one new cluster center at each stage through a nonparametric and stochastic k-means++ initialization. The INCKPP algorithm overcomes the difficulty of hyperparameter selection in the INCKM algorithm, improves the clustering performance, and can deal with imbalanced datasets well. However, the INCKPP algorithm is not computationally efficient enough. To deal with this, we further propose an improved INCKPP algorithm, called INCKPPsample algorithm, which improves the clustering efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance of the INCKPP algorithm. Extensive results from experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, including imbalanced datasets, illustrate that the proposed algorithms outperforms than the other compared algorithms.

Distributionally robust policy learning aims to find a policy that performs well under the worst-case distributional shift, and yet most existing methods for robust policy learning consider the worst-case joint distribution of the covariate and the outcome. The joint-modeling strategy can be unnecessarily conservative when we have more information on the source of distributional shifts. This paper studiesa more nuanced problem -- robust policy learning under the concept drift, when only the conditional relationship between the outcome and the covariate changes. To this end, we first provide a doubly-robust estimator for evaluating the worst-case average reward of a given policy under a set of perturbed conditional distributions. We show that the policy value estimator enjoys asymptotic normality even if the nuisance parameters are estimated with a slower-than-root-$n$ rate. We then propose a learning algorithm that outputs the policy maximizing the estimated policy value within a given policy class $\Pi$, and show that the sub-optimality gap of the proposed algorithm is of the order $\kappa(\Pi)n^{-1/2}$, with $\kappa(\Pi)$ is the entropy integral of $\Pi$ under the Hamming distance and $n$ is the sample size. A matching lower bound is provided to show the optimality of the rate. The proposed methods are implemented and evaluated in numerical studies, demonstrating substantial improvement compared with existing benchmarks.

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) representation learning aims to map temporal evolving entities and relations to embedded representations in a continuous low-dimensional vector space. However, existing approaches cannot capture the temporal evolution of high-order correlations in TKGs. To this end, we propose a Deep Evolutionary Clustering jointed temporal knowledge graph Representation Learning approach (DECRL). Specifically, a deep evolutionary clustering module is proposed to capture the temporal evolution of high-order correlations among entities. Furthermore, a cluster-aware unsupervised alignment mechanism is introduced to ensure the precise one-to-one alignment of soft overlapping clusters across timestamps, thereby maintaining the temporal smoothness of clusters. In addition, an implicit correlation encoder is introduced to capture latent correlations between any pair of clusters under the guidance of a global graph. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that DECRL achieves the state-of-the-art performances, outperforming the best baseline by an average of 9.53%, 12.98%, 10.42%, and 14.68% in MRR, Hits@1, Hits@3, and Hits@10, respectively.

We present a novel class of projected gradient (PG) methods for minimizing a smooth but not necessarily convex function over a convex compact set. We first provide a novel analysis of the "vanilla" PG method, achieving the best-known iteration complexity for finding an approximate stationary point of the problem. We then develop an "auto-conditioned" projected gradient (AC-PG) variant that achieves the same iteration complexity without requiring the input of the Lipschitz constant of the gradient or any line search procedure. The key idea is to estimate the Lipschitz constant using first-order information gathered from the previous iterations, and to show that the error caused by underestimating the Lipschitz constant can be properly controlled. We then generalize the PG methods to the stochastic setting, by proposing a stochastic projected gradient (SPG) method and a variance-reduced stochastic gradient (VR-SPG) method, achieving new complexity bounds in different oracle settings. We also present auto-conditioned stepsize policies for both stochastic PG methods and establish comparable convergence guarantees.

The problem of estimating, from a random sample of points, the dimension of a compact subset S of the Euclidean space is considered. The emphasis is put on consistency results in the statistical sense. That is, statements of convergence to the true dimension value when the sample size grows to infinity. Among the many available definitions of dimension, we have focused (on the grounds of its statistical tractability) on three notions: the Minkowski dimension, the correlation dimension and the, perhaps less popular, concept of pointwise dimension. We prove the statistical consistency of some natural estimators of these quantities. Our proofs partially rely on the use of an instrumental estimator formulated in terms of the empirical volume function Vn (r), defined as the Lebesgue measure of the set of points whose distance to the sample is at most r. In particular, we explore the case in which the true volume function V (r) of the target set S is a polynomial on some interval starting at zero. An empirical study is also included. Our study aims to provide some theoretical support, and some practical insights, for the problem of deciding whether or not the set S has a dimension smaller than that of the ambient space. This is a major statistical motivation of the dimension studies, in connection with the so-called Manifold Hypothesis.

Class imbalance and distributional differences in large datasets present significant challenges for classification tasks machine learning, often leading to biased models and poor predictive performance for minority classes. This work introduces two novel undersampling approaches: mutual information-based stratified simple random sampling and support points optimization. These methods prioritize representative data selection, effectively minimizing information loss. Empirical results across multiple classification tasks demonstrate that our methods outperform traditional undersampling techniques, achieving higher balanced classification accuracy. These findings highlight the potential of combining statistical concepts with machine learning to address class imbalance in practical applications.

Benign overfitting refers to the phenomenon where an over-parameterized model fits the training data perfectly, including noise in the data, but still generalizes well to the unseen test data. While prior work provides some theoretical understanding of this phenomenon under the in-distribution setup, modern machine learning often operates in a more challenging Out-of-Distribution (OOD) regime, where the target (test) distribution can be rather different from the source (training) distribution. In this work, we take an initial step towards understanding benign overfitting in the OOD regime by focusing on the basic setup of over-parameterized linear models under covariate shift. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees proving that benign overfitting occurs in standard ridge regression, even under the OOD regime when the target covariance satisfies certain structural conditions. We identify several vital quantities relating to source and target covariance, which govern the performance of OOD generalization. Our result is sharp, which provably recovers prior in-distribution benign overfitting guarantee [Tsigler and Bartlett, 2023], as well as under-parameterized OOD guarantee [Ge et al., 2024] when specializing to each setup. Moreover, we also present theoretical results for a more general family of target covariance matrix, where standard ridge regression only achieves a slow statistical rate of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ for the excess risk, while Principal Component Regression (PCR) is guaranteed to achieve the fast rate $O(1/n)$, where $n$ is the number of samples.

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter learning when the studied model exhibits random discontinuous jumps in behaviour. To facilitate the learning of high dimensional parameter sets, such as those associated to neural networks, we adopt the emerging framework of differentiable particle filtering, wherein parameters are trained by gradient descent. We design a new differentiable interacting multiple model particle filter to be capable of learning the individual behavioural regimes and the model which controls the jumping simultaneously. In contrast to previous approaches, our algorithm allows control of the computational effort assigned per regime whilst using the probability of being in a given regime to guide sampling. Furthermore, we develop a new gradient estimator that has a lower variance than established approaches and remains fast to compute, for which we prove consistency. We establish new theoretical results of the presented algorithms and demonstrate superior numerical performance compared to the previous state-of-the-art algorithms.

This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first one places a standard Gaussian process prior on the conditional mean function of the control group. We obtain asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian estimator and an efficient frequentist estimator by establishing a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem. The second method is a double robust Bayesian procedure that adjusts the prior distribution of the conditional mean function and subsequently corrects the posterior distribution of the resulting ATT. We establish a semiparametric BvM result under double robust smoothness conditions; i.e., the lack of smoothness of conditional mean functions can be compensated by high regularity of the propensity score, and vice versa. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian DiD methods exhibit strong finite-sample performance compared to existing frequentist methods. Finally, we outline an extension to difference-in-differences with multiple periods and staggered entry.

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the $\epsilon$-contamination model, where an adversary can inspect and replace up to an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples, a fundamental open problem is determining the optimal rates for robust stochastic convex optimization (SCO) under such contamination. We develop novel algorithms that achieve minimax-optimal excess risk (up to logarithmic factors) under the $\epsilon$-contamination model. Our approach improves over existing algorithms, which are not only suboptimal but also require stringent assumptions, including Lipschitz continuity and smoothness of individual sample functions. By contrast, our optimal algorithms do not require these restrictive assumptions, and can handle nonsmooth but Lipschitz population loss functions. We complement our algorithmic developments with a tight lower bound for robust SCO.