In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme for multivariate Bayesian inversion problems, which is based in two main ideas: the variables of interest are split in two blocks and the inference takes advantage of known analytical optimization formulas. We estimate both the unknown parameters of the multivariate non-linear model and the covariance matrix of the noise. In the first part of the proposed inference scheme, a novel AIS technique called adaptive target adaptive importance sampling (ATAIS) is designed, which alternates iteratively between an IS technique over the parameters of the non-linear model and a frequentist approach for the covariance matrix of the noise. In the second part of the proposed inference scheme, a prior density over the covariance matrix is considered and the cloud of samples obtained by ATAIS are recycled and re-weighted to obtain a complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and covariance matrix. ATAIS is the main contribution of the work. Additionally, the inverted layered importance sampling (ILIS) is presented as a possible compelling algorithm (but based on a conceptually simpler idea). Different numerical examples show the benefits of the proposed approaches

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental design, which goes beyond merely collecting information on system parameters as in traditional Bayesian experimental design (BED), but also plays a key part in facilitating downstream decision-making. Most recent BED methods use an amortized policy network to rapidly design experiments. However, the information gathered through these methods is suboptimal for down-the-line decision-making, as the experiments are not inherently designed with downstream objectives in mind. In this paper, we present an amortized decision-aware BED framework that prioritizes maximizing downstream decision utility. We introduce a novel architecture, the Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP), capable of instantly proposing the next experimental design, whilst inferring the downstream decision, thus effectively amortizing both tasks within a unified workflow. We demonstrate the performance of our method across several tasks, showing that it can deliver informative designs and facilitate accurate decision-making.

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a key predictor for wildfire rate of spread (ROS). Machine learning models of FMC are being used more in recent years, augmenting or replacing traditional physics-based approaches. Wildfire rate of spread (ROS) has a highly nonlinear relationship with FMC, where small differences in dry fuels lead to large differences in ROS. In this study, custom loss functions that place more weight on dry fuels were examined with a variety of machine learning models of FMC. The models were evaluated with a spatiotemporal cross-validation procedure to examine whether the custom loss functions led to more accurate forecasts of ROS. Results show that the custom loss functions improved accuracy for ROS forecasts by a small amount. Further research would be needed to establish whether the improvement in ROS forecasts leads to more accurate real-time wildfire simulations.

A wide range of user perception applications leverage inertial measurement unit (IMU) data for online prediction. However, restricted by the non-i.i.d. nature of IMU data collected from mobile devices, most systems work well only in a controlled setting (e.g., for a specific user in particular postures), limiting application scenarios. To achieve uncontrolled online prediction on mobile devices, referred to as the flexible user perception (FUP) problem, is attractive but hard. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme, called Prism, which can obtain high FUP accuracy on mobile devices. The core of Prism is to discover task-aware domains embedded in IMU dataset, and to train a domain-aware model on each identified domain. To this end, we design an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate latent domains with respect to the specific downstream perception task. Finally, the best-fit model can be automatically selected for use by comparing the test sample and all identified domains in the feature space. We implement Prism on various mobile devices and conduct extensive experiments. Results demonstrate that Prism can achieve the best FUP performance with a low latency.

Driven by technological breakthroughs, indoor tracking and localization have gained importance in various applications including the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). To tackle some of the challenges associated with indoor tracking, this study explores the potential benefits of incorporating the SO(3) manifold structure of the rotation matrix. The goal is to enhance the 3D tracking performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) of a moving target within an indoor environment. Our results demonstrate that the proposed extended Kalman filter with Riemannian (EKFRie) and unscented Kalman filter with Riemannian (UKFRie) algorithms consistently outperform the conventional EKF and UKF in terms of position and orientation accuracy. While the conventional EKF and UKF achieved root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.36m and 0.43m, respectively, for a long stair path, the proposed EKFRie and UKFRie algorithms achieved a lower RMSE of 0.21m and 0.10m. Our results show also the outperforming of the proposed algorithms over the EKF and UKF algorithms with the Isosceles triangle manifold. While the latter achieved RMSE of 7.26cm and 7.27cm, respectively, our proposed algorithms achieved RMSE of 6.73cm and 6.16cm. These results demonstrate the enhanced performance of the proposed algorithms.

Debris disks, which consist of dust, planetesimals, planets, and gas, offer a unique window into the mineralogical composition of their parent bodies, especially during the critical phase of terrestrial planet formation spanning 10 to a few hundred million years. Observations from the $\textit{Spitzer}$ Space Telescope have unveiled thousands of debris disks, yet systematic studies remain scarce, let alone those with unsupervised clustering techniques. This study introduces $\texttt{CLUES}$ (CLustering UnsupErvised with Sequencer), a novel, non-parametric, fully-interpretable machine-learning spectral analysis tool designed to analyze and classify the spectral data of debris disks. $\texttt{CLUES}$ combines multiple unsupervised clustering methods with multi-scale distance measures to discern new groupings and trends, offering insights into compositional diversity and geophysical processes within these disks. Our analysis allows us to explore a vast parameter space in debris disk mineralogy and also offers broader applications in fields such as protoplanetary disks and solar system objects. This paper details the methodology, implementation, and initial results of $\texttt{CLUES}$, setting the stage for more detailed follow-up studies focusing on debris disk mineralogy and demographics.

Significant advancements have been made in single-label incremental learning (SLCIL), yet the more practical and challenging multilabel class-incremental learning (MLCIL) remains understudied. Recently, visual language models such as CLIP have achieved good results in classification tasks. However, directly using CLIP to solve MLCIL issue can lead to catastrophic forgetting. To tackle this issue, we integrate an improved data replay mechanism and prompt loss to curb knowledge forgetting. Specifically, our model enhances the prompt information to better adapt to multi-label classification tasks and employs confidence-based replay strategy to select representative samples. Moreover, the prompt loss significantly reduces the model's forgetting of previous knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate that our method has substantially improved the performance of MLCIL tasks across multiple benchmark datasets, validating its effectiveness.

As financial fraud becomes increasingly complex, effective detection methods are essential. Quantum Machine Learning (QML) introduces certain capabilities that may enhance both accuracy and efficiency in this area. This study examines how different quantum feature map and ansatz configurations affect the performance of three QML-based classifiers-the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC), the Sampler Quantum Neural Network (SQNN), and the Estimator Quantum Neural Network (EQNN)-when applied to two non-standardized financial fraud datasets. Different quantum feature map and ansatz configurations are evaluated, revealing distinct performance patterns. The VQC consistently demonstrates strong classification results, achieving an F1 score of 0.88, while the SQNN also delivers promising outcomes. In contrast, the EQNN struggles to produce robust results, emphasizing the challenges presented by non-standardized data. These findings highlight the importance of careful model configuration in QML-based financial fraud detection. By showing how specific feature maps and ansatz choices influence predictive success, this work guides researchers and practitioners in refining QML approaches for complex financial applications.

In the many years since the inception of wearable sensor-based Human Activity Recognition (HAR), a wide variety of methods have been introduced and evaluated for their ability to recognize activities. Substantial gains have been made since the days of hand-crafting heuristics as features, yet, progress has seemingly stalled on many popular benchmarks, with performance falling short of what may be considered 'sufficient'-- despite the increase in computational power and scale of sensor data, as well as rising complexity in techniques being employed. The HAR community approaches a new paradigm shift, this time incorporating world knowledge from foundational models. In this paper, we take stock of sensor-based HAR -- surveying it from its beginnings to the current state of the field, and charting its future. This is accompanied by a hands-on tutorial, through which we guide practitioners in developing HAR systems for real-world application scenarios. We provide a compendium for novices and experts alike, of methods that aim at finally solving the activity recognition problem.

Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to emulate a black-box computational model with the aim of efficiently searching for the global minimum. However, Gaussian processes have limited applicability for engineering problems with many design variables. Their scalability can be significantly improved by identifying a low-dimensional vector of latent variables that serve as inputs to the Gaussian process. In this paper, we introduce a multi-view learning strategy that considers both the input design variables and output data representing the objective or constraint functions, to identify a low-dimensional space of latent variables. Adopting a fully probabilistic viewpoint, we use probabilistic partial least squares (PPLS) to learn an orthogonal mapping from the design variables to the latent variables using training data consisting of inputs and outputs of the black-box computational model. The latent variables and posterior probability densities of the probabilistic partial least squares and Gaussian process models are determined sequentially and iteratively, with retraining occurring at each adaptive sampling iteration. We compare the proposed probabilistic partial least squares Bayesian optimisation (PPLS-BO) strategy to its deterministic counterpart, partial least squares Bayesian optimisation (PLS-BO), and classical Bayesian optimisation, demonstrating significant improvements in convergence to the global minimum.