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 Statistical Learning


Guaranteed Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Estimation via Scaled Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tensors, which give a faithful and effective representation to deliver the intrinsic structure of multi-dimensional data, play a crucial role in an increasing number of signal processing and machine learning problems. However, tensor data are often accompanied by arbitrary signal corruptions, including missing entries and sparse noise. A fundamental challenge is to reliably extract the meaningful information from corrupted tensor data in a statistically and computationally efficient manner. This paper develops a scaled gradient descent (ScaledGD) algorithm to directly estimate the tensor factors with tailored spectral initializations under the tensor-tensor product (t-product) and tensor singular value decomposition (t-SVD) framework. In theory, ScaledGD achieves linear convergence at a constant rate that is independent of the condition number of the ground truth low-rank tensor for two canonical problems -- tensor robust principal component analysis and tensor completion -- as long as the level of corruptions is not too large and the sample size is sufficiently large, while maintaining the low per-iteration cost of gradient descent. To the best of our knowledge, ScaledGD is the first algorithm that provably has such properties for low-rank tensor estimation with the t-SVD decomposition. Finally, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficacy of ScaledGD in accelerating the convergence rate of ill-conditioned low-rank tensor estimation in these two applications.


Active learning of neural population dynamics using two-photon holographic optogenetics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in techniques for monitoring and perturbing neural populations have greatly enhanced our ability to study circuits in the brain. In particular, two-photon holographic optogenetics now enables precise photostimulation of experimenter-specified groups of individual neurons, while simultaneous two-photon calcium imaging enables the measurement of ongoing and induced activity across the neural population. Despite the enormous space of potential photostimulation patterns and the time-consuming nature of photostimulation experiments, very little algorithmic work has been done to determine the most effective photostimulation patterns for identifying the neural population dynamics. Here, we develop methods to efficiently select which neurons to stimulate such that the resulting neural responses will best inform a dynamical model of the neural population activity. Using neural population responses to photostimulation in mouse motor cortex, we demonstrate the efficacy of a low-rank linear dynamical systems model, and develop an active learning procedure which takes advantage of low-rank structure to determine informative photostimulation patterns. We demonstrate our approach on both real and synthetic data, obtaining in some cases as much as a two-fold reduction in the amount of data required to reach a given predictive power. Our active stimulation design method is based on a novel active learning procedure for low-rank regression, which may be of independent interest.


DeepFilter: An Instrumental Baseline for Accurate and Efficient Process Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective process monitoring is increasingly vital in industrial automation for ensuring operational safety, necessitating both high accuracy and efficiency. Although Transformers have demonstrated success in various fields, their canonical form based on the self-attention mechanism is inadequate for process monitoring due to two primary limitations: (1) the step-wise correlations captured by self-attention mechanism are difficult to capture discriminative patterns in monitoring logs due to the lacking semantics of each step, thus compromising accuracy; (2) the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention hampers efficiency. To address these issues, we propose DeepFilter, a Transformer-style framework for process monitoring. The core innovation is an efficient filtering layer that excel capturing long-term and periodic patterns with reduced complexity. Equipping with the global filtering layer, DeepFilter enhances both accuracy and efficiency, meeting the stringent demands of process monitoring. Experimental results on real-world process monitoring datasets validate DeepFilter's superiority in terms of accuracy and efficiency compared to existing state-of-the-art models.


KANS: Knowledge Discovery Graph Attention Network for Soft Sensing in Multivariate Industrial Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Soft sensing of hard-to-measure variables is often crucial in industrial processes. Current practices rely heavily on conventional modeling techniques that show success in improving accuracy. However, they overlook the non-linear nature, dynamics characteristics, and non-Euclidean dependencies between complex process variables. To tackle these challenges, we present a framework known as a Knowledge discovery graph Attention Network for effective Soft sensing (KANS). Unlike the existing deep learning soft sensor models, KANS can discover the intrinsic correlations and irregular relationships between the multivariate industrial processes without a predefined topology. First, an unsupervised graph structure learning method is introduced, incorporating the cosine similarity between different sensor embedding to capture the correlations between sensors. Next, we present a graph attention-based representation learning that can compute the multivariate data parallelly to enhance the model in learning complex sensor nodes and edges. To fully explore KANS, knowledge discovery analysis has also been conducted to demonstrate the interpretability of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that KANS significantly outperforms all the baselines and state-of-the-art methods in soft sensing performance. Furthermore, the analysis shows that KANS can find sensors closely related to different process variables without domain knowledge, significantly improving soft sensing accuracy.


Trajectory Representation Learning on Road Networks and Grids with Spatio-Temporal Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory representation learning is a fundamental task for applications in fields including smart city, and urban planning, as it facilitates the utilization of trajectory data (e.g., vehicle movements) for various downstream applications, such as trajectory similarity computation or travel time estimation. This is achieved by learning low-dimensional representations from high-dimensional and raw trajectory data. However, existing methods for trajectory representation learning either rely on grid-based or road-based representations, which are inherently different and thus, could lose information contained in the other modality. Moreover, these methods overlook the dynamic nature of urban traffic, relying on static road network features rather than time varying traffic patterns. In this paper, we propose TIGR, a novel model designed to integrate grid and road network modalities while incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics to learn rich, general-purpose representations of trajectories. We evaluate TIGR on two realworld datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of combining both modalities by substantially outperforming state-of-the-art methods, i.e., up to 43.22% for trajectory similarity, up to 16.65% for travel time estimation, and up to 10.16% for destination prediction.


Multi-View Majority Vote Learning Algorithms: Direct Minimization of PAC-Bayesian Bounds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The PAC-Bayesian framework has significantly advanced the understanding of statistical learning, particularly for majority voting methods. Despite its successes, its application to multi-view learning -- a setting with multiple complementary data representations -- remains underexplored. In this work, we extend PAC-Bayesian theory to multi-view learning, introducing novel generalization bounds based on R\'enyi divergence. These bounds provide an alternative to traditional Kullback-Leibler divergence-based counterparts, leveraging the flexibility of R\'enyi divergence. Furthermore, we propose first- and second-order oracle PAC-Bayesian bounds and extend the C-bound to multi-view settings. To bridge theory and practice, we design efficient self-bounding optimization algorithms that align with our theoretical results.


Machine Learning-Based Differential Diagnosis of Parkinson's Disease Using Kinematic Feature Extraction and Selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parkinson's disease (PD), the second most common neurodegenerative disorder, is characterized by dopaminergic neuron loss and the accumulation of abnormal synuclein. PD presents both motor and non-motor symptoms that progressively impair daily functioning. The severity of these symptoms is typically assessed using the MDS-UPDRS rating scale, which is subjective and dependent on the physician's experience. Additionally, PD shares symptoms with other neurodegenerative diseases, such as progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and multiple system atrophy (MSA), complicating accurate diagnosis. To address these diagnostic challenges, we propose a machine learning-based system for differential diagnosis of PD, PSP, MSA, and healthy controls (HC). This system utilizes a kinematic feature-based hierarchical feature extraction and selection approach. Initially, 18 kinematic features are extracted, including two newly proposed features: Thumb-to-index vector velocity and acceleration, which provide insights into motor control patterns. In addition, 41 statistical features were extracted here from each kinematic feature, including some new approaches such as Average Absolute Change, Rhythm, Amplitude, Frequency, Standard Deviation of Frequency, and Slope. Feature selection is performed using One-way ANOVA to rank features, followed by Sequential Forward Floating Selection (SFFS) to identify the most relevant ones, aiming to reduce the computational complexity. The final feature set is used for classification, achieving a classification accuracy of 66.67% for each dataset and 88.89% for each patient, with particularly high performance for the MSA and HC groups using the SVM algorithm. This system shows potential as a rapid and accurate diagnostic tool in clinical practice, though further data collection and refinement are needed to enhance its reliability.


Summarizing Bayesian Nonparametric Mixture Posterior -- Sliced Optimal Transport Metrics for Gaussian Mixtures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Existing methods to summarize posterior inference for mixture models focus on identifying a point estimate of the implied random partition for clustering, with density estimation as a secondary goal (Wade and Ghahramani, 2018; Dahl et al., 2022). We propose a novel approach for summarizing posterior inference in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models, prioritizing density estimation of the mixing measure (or mixture) as an inference target. One of the key features is the model-agnostic nature of the approach, which remains valid under arbitrarily complex dependence structures in the underlying sampling model. Using a decision-theoretic framework, our method identifies a point estimate by minimizing posterior expected loss. A loss function is defined as a discrepancy between mixing measures. Estimating the mixing measure implies inference on the mixture density and the random partition. Exploiting the discrete nature of the mixing measure, we use a version of sliced Wasserstein distance. We introduce two specific variants for Gaussian mixtures. The first, mixed sliced Wasserstein, applies generalized geodesic projections on the product of the Euclidean space and the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. The second, sliced mixture Wasserstein, leverages the linearity of Gaussian mixture measures for efficient projection.


Calculating Customer Lifetime Value and Churn using Beta Geometric Negative Binomial and Gamma-Gamma Distribution in a NFT based setting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is an important metric that measures the total value a customer will bring to a business over their lifetime. The Beta Geometric Negative Binomial Distribution (BGNBD) and Gamma Gamma Distribution are two models that can be used to calculate CLV, taking into account both the frequency and value of customer transactions. This article explains the BGNBD and Gamma Gamma Distribution models, and how they can be used to calculate CLV for NFT (Non-Fungible Token) transaction data in a blockchain setting. By estimating the parameters of these models using historical transaction data, businesses can gain insights into the lifetime value of their customers and make data-driven decisions about marketing and customer retention strategies.


A Shape-Based Functional Index for Objective Assessment of Pediatric Motor Function

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clinical assessments for neuromuscular disorders, such as Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) and Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD), continue to rely on subjective measures to monitor treatment response and disease progression. We introduce a novel method using wearable sensors to objectively assess motor function during daily activities in 19 patients with DMD, 9 with SMA, and 13 age-matched controls. Pediatric movement data is complex due to confounding factors such as limb length variations in growing children and variability in movement speed. Our approach uses Shape-based Principal Component Analysis to align movement trajectories and identify distinct kinematic patterns, including variations in motion speed and asymmetry. Both DMD and SMA cohorts have individuals with motor function on par with healthy controls. Notably, patients with SMA showed greater activation of the motion asymmetry pattern. We further combined projections on these principal components with partial least squares (PLS) to identify a covariation mode with a canonical correlation of r = 0.78 (95% CI: [0.34, 0.94]) with muscle fat infiltration, the Brooke score (a motor function score), and age-related degenerative changes, proposing a novel motor function index. This data-driven method can be deployed in home settings, enabling better longitudinal tracking of treatment efficacy for children with neuromuscular disorders.