Statistical Learning
When lies are mostly truthful: automated verbal deception detection for embedded lies
Loconte, Riccardo, Kleinberg, Bennett
Background: Verbal deception detection research relies on narratives and commonly assumes statements as truthful or deceptive. A more realistic perspective acknowledges that the veracity of statements exists on a continuum with truthful and deceptive parts being embedded within the same statement. However, research on embedded lies has been lagging behind. Methods: We collected a novel dataset of 2,088 truthful and deceptive statements with annotated embedded lies. Using a within-subjects design, participants provided a truthful account of an autobiographical event. They then rewrote their statement in a deceptive manner by including embedded lies, which they highlighted afterwards and judged on lie centrality, deceptiveness, and source. Results: We show that a fined-tuned language model (Llama-3-8B) can classify truthful statements and those containing embedded lies with 64% accuracy. Individual differences, linguistic properties and explainability analysis suggest that the challenge of moving the dial towards embedded lies stems from their resemblance to truthful statements. Typical deceptive statements consisted of 2/3 truthful information and 1/3 embedded lies, largely derived from past personal experiences and with minimal linguistic differences with their truthful counterparts. Conclusion: We present this dataset as a novel resource to address this challenge and foster research on embedded lies in verbal deception detection.
A data-driven approach to discover and quantify systemic lupus erythematosus etiological heterogeneity from electronic health records
Mota, Marco Barbero, Still, John M., Gamboa, Jorge L., Strobl, Eric V., Stein, Charles M., Kawai, Vivian K., Lasko, Thomas A.
Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex heterogeneous disease with many manifestational facets. We propose a data-driven approach to discover probabilistic independent sources from multimodal imperfect EHR data. These sources represent exogenous variables in the data generation process causal graph that estimate latent root causes of the presence of SLE in the health record. We objectively evaluated the sources against the original variables from which they were discovered by training supervised models to discriminate SLE from negative health records using a reduced set of labelled instances. We found 19 predictive sources with high clinical validity and whose EHR signatures define independent factors of SLE heterogeneity. Using the sources as input patient data representation enables models to provide with rich explanations that better capture the clinical reasons why a particular record is (not) an SLE case. Providers may be willing to trade patient-level interpretability for discrimination especially in challenging cases. Introduction Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex relapsing disease that manifests through various combinations of symptoms and clinical signs. SLE's heterogeneity makes its recognition in the health record slow and subjective.
An Enhanced Zeroth-Order Stochastic Frank-Wolfe Framework for Constrained Finite-Sum Optimization
Ye, Haishan, Huang, Yinghui, Di, Hao, Chang, Xiangyu
We propose an enhanced zeroth-order stochastic Frank-Wolfe framework to address constrained finite-sum optimization problems, a structure prevalent in large-scale machine-learning applications. Our method introduces a novel double variance reduction framework that effectively reduces the gradient approximation variance induced by zeroth-order oracles and the stochastic sampling variance from finite-sum objectives. By leveraging this framework, our algorithm achieves significant improvements in query efficiency, making it particularly well-suited for high-dimensional optimization tasks. Specifically, for convex objectives, the algorithm achieves a query complexity of O(d \sqrt{n}/\epsilon ) to find an epsilon-suboptimal solution, where d is the dimensionality and n is the number of functions in the finite-sum objective. For non-convex objectives, it achieves a query complexity of O(d^{3/2}\sqrt{n}/\epsilon^2 ) without requiring the computation ofd partial derivatives at each iteration. These complexities are the best known among zeroth-order stochastic Frank-Wolfe algorithms that avoid explicit gradient calculations. Empirical experiments on convex and non-convex machine learning tasks, including sparse logistic regression, robust classification, and adversarial attacks on deep networks, validate the computational efficiency and scalability of our approach. Our algorithm demonstrates superior performance in both convergence rate and query complexity compared to existing methods.
Knowledge Distillation and Enhanced Subdomain Adaptation Using Graph Convolutional Network for Resource-Constrained Bearing Fault Diagnosis
Kavianpour, Mohammadreza, Kavianpour, Parisa, Ramezani, Amin, Beheshti, Mohammad TH
Bearing fault diagnosis under varying working conditions faces challenges, including a lack of labeled data, distribution discrepancies, and resource constraints. To address these issues, we propose a progressive knowledge distillation framework that transfers knowledge from a complex teacher model, utilizing a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) filters, to a compact and efficient student model. To mitigate distribution discrepancies and labeling uncertainty, we introduce Enhanced Local Maximum Mean Squared Discrepancy (ELMMSD), which leverages mean and variance statistics in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) and incorporates a priori probability distributions between labels. This approach increases the distance between clustering centers, bridges subdomain gaps, and enhances subdomain alignment reliability. Experimental results on benchmark datasets (CWRU and JNU) demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior diagnostic accuracy while significantly reducing computational costs. Comprehensive ablation studies validate the effectiveness of each component, highlighting the robustness and adaptability of the approach across diverse working conditions.
CureGraph: Contrastive Multi-Modal Graph Representation Learning for Urban Living Circle Health Profiling and Prediction
The early detection and prediction of health status decline among the elderly at the neighborhood level are of great significance for urban planning and public health policymaking. While existing studies affirm the connection between living environments and health outcomes, most rely on single data modalities or simplistic feature concatenation of multi-modal information, limiting their ability to comprehensively profile the health-oriented urban environments. To fill this gap, we propose CureGraph, a contrastive multi-modal representation learning framework for urban health prediction that employs graph-based techniques to infer the prevalence of common chronic diseases among the elderly within the urban living circles of each neighborhood. CureGraph leverages rich multi-modal information, including photos and textual reviews of residential areas and their surrounding points of interest, to generate urban neighborhood embeddings. By integrating pre-trained visual and textual encoders with graph modeling techniques, CureGraph captures cross-modal spatial dependencies, offering a comprehensive understanding of urban environments tailored to elderly health considerations. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CureGraph improves the best baseline by $28\%$ on average in terms of $R^2$ across elderly disease risk prediction tasks. Moreover, the model enables the identification of stage-wise chronic disease progression and supports comparative public health analysis across neighborhoods, offering actionable insights for sustainable urban development and enhanced quality of life. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/jinlin2021/CureGraph.
AdaPRL: Adaptive Pairwise Regression Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Universal Regression Tasks
Liang, Fuhang, Xu, Rucong, Lin, Deng
Current deep regression models usually learn in point-wise way that treat each sample as an independent input, neglecting the relative ordering among different data. Consequently, the regression model could neglect the data 's interrelationships, potentially resulting in suboptimal performance. Moreover, the existence of aleatoric uncertainty in the training data may drive the model to capture non-generalizable patterns, contributing to increased overfitting. To address these issues, we propose a novel adaptive pairwise learning framework (AdaPRL) for regression tasks which leverages the relative differences between data points and integrates with deep probabilistic models to quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. Additionally, we adapt AdaPRL for applications in multi-task learning and multivariate time series forecasting. Extensive experiments with several real-world regression datasets including recommendation systems, age estimation, time series forecasting, natural language understanding, finance, and industry datasets show that AdaPRL is compatible with different backbone networks in various tasks and achieves state-of-the-art performance on the vast majority of tasks, highlighting its notable potential including enhancing prediction accuracy and ranking ability, increasing generalization capability, improving robustness to noisy data, improving resilience to reduced data, and enhancing interpretability, etc.
EVA-S2PLoR: A Secure Element-wise Multiplication Meets Logistic Regression on Heterogeneous Database
Tao, Tianle, Peng, Shizhao, Mei, Tianyu, Li, Shoumo, Zhu, Haogang
Accurate nonlinear computation is a key challenge in privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML). Most existing frameworks approximate it through linear operations, resulting in significant precision loss. This paper proposes an efficient, verifiable and accurate security 2-party logistic regression framework (EVA-S2PLoR), which achieves accurate nonlinear function computation through a novel secure element-wise multiplication protocol and its derived protocols. Our framework primarily includes secure 2-party vector element-wise multiplication, addition to multiplication, reciprocal, and sigmoid function based on data disguising technology, where high efficiency and accuracy are guaranteed by the simple computation flow based on the real number domain and the few number of fixed communication rounds. We provide secure and robust anomaly detection through dimension transformation and Monte Carlo methods. EVA-S2PLoR outperforms many advanced frameworks in terms of precision (improving the performance of the sigmoid function by about 10 orders of magnitude compared to most frameworks) and delivers the best overall performance in secure logistic regression experiments.
Constructing and explaining machine learning models for chemistry: example of the exploration and design of boron-based Lewis acids
Fenogli, Juliette, Grimaud, Laurence, Vuilleumier, Rodolphe
The integration of machine learning (ML) into chemistry offers transformative potential in the design of molecules with targeted properties. However, the focus has often been on creating highly efficient predictive models, sometimes at the expense of interpretability. In this study, we leverage explainable AI techniques to explore the rational design of boron-based Lewis acids, which play a pivotal role in organic reactions due to their electron-ccepting properties. Using Fluoride Ion Affinity as a proxy for Lewis acidity, we developed interpretable ML models based on chemically meaningful descriptors, including ab initio computed features and substituent-based parameters derived from the Hammett linear free-energy relationship. By constraining the chemical space to well-defined molecular scaffolds, we achieved highly accurate predictions (mean absolute error < 6 kJ/mol), surpassing conventional black-box deep learning models in low-data regimes. Interpretability analyses of the models shed light on the origin of Lewis acidity in these compounds and identified actionable levers to modulate it through the nature and positioning of substituents on the molecular scaffold. This work bridges ML and chemist's way of thinking, demonstrating how explainable models can inspire molecular design and enhance scientific understanding of chemical reactivity.
Explainable AI for Classifying UTI Risk Groups Using a Real-World Linked EHR and Pathology Lab Dataset
Dai, Yujie, Sullivan, Brian, Montout, Axel, Dillon, Amy, Waller, Chris, Acs, Peter, Denholm, Rachel, Williams, Philip, Hay, Alastair D, Santos-Rodriguez, Raul, Dowsey, Andrew
The use of machine learning and AI on electronic health records (EHRs) holds substantial potential for clinical insight. However, this approach faces challenges due to data heterogeneity, sparsity, temporal misalignment, and limited labeled outcomes. In this context, we leverage a linked EHR dataset of approximately one million de-identified individuals from Bristol, North Somerset, and South Gloucestershire, UK, to characterize urinary tract infections (UTIs). We implemented a data pre-processing and curation pipeline that transforms the raw EHR data into a structured format suitable for developing predictive models focused on data fairness, accountability and transparency. Given the limited availability and biases of ground truth UTI outcomes, we introduce a UTI risk estimation framework informed by clinical expertise to estimate UTI risk across individual patient timelines. Pairwise XGBoost models are trained using this framework to differentiate UTI risk categories with explainable AI techniques applied to identify key predictors and support interpretability. Our findings reveal differences in clinical and demographic predictors across risk groups. While this study highlights the potential of AI-driven insights to support UTI clinical decision-making, further investigation of patient sub-strata and extensive validation are needed to ensure robustness and applicability in clinical practice.