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 Statistical Learning


coverforest: Conformal Predictions with Random Forest in Python

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction provides a framework for uncertainty quantification, specifically in the forms of prediction intervals and sets with distribution-free guaranteed coverage. While recent cross-conformal techniques such as CV+ and Jackknife+-after-bootstrap achieve better data efficiency than traditional split conformal methods, they incur substantial computational costs due to required pairwise comparisons between training and test samples' out-of-bag scores. Observing that these methods naturally extend from ensemble models, particularly random forests, we leverage existing optimized random forest implementations to enable efficient cross-conformal predictions. We present coverforest, a Python package that implements efficient conformal prediction methods specifically optimized for random forests. coverforest supports both regression and classification tasks through various conformal prediction methods, including split conformal, CV+, Jackknife+-after-bootstrap, and adaptive prediction sets. Our package leverages parallel computing and Cython optimizations to speed up out-of-bag calculations. Our experiments demonstrate that coverforest's predictions achieve the desired level of coverage. In addition, its training and prediction times can be faster than an existing implementation by 2--9 times. The source code for the coverforest is hosted on GitHub at https://github.com/donlapark/coverforest.


SoK: What Makes Private Learning Unfair?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Differential privacy has emerged as the most studied framework for privacy-preserving machine learning. However, recent studies show that enforcing differential privacy guarantees can not only significantly degrade the utility of the model, but also amplify existing disparities in its predictive performance across demographic groups. Although there is extensive research on the identification of factors that contribute to this phenomenon, we still lack a complete understanding of the mechanisms through which differential privacy exacerbates disparities. The literature on this problem is muddled by varying definitions of fairness, differential privacy mechanisms, and inconsistent experimental settings, often leading to seemingly contradictory results. This survey provides the first comprehensive overview of the factors that contribute to the disparate effect of training models with differential privacy guarantees. We discuss their impact and analyze their causal role in such a disparate effect. Our analysis is guided by a taxonomy that categorizes these factors by their position within the machine learning pipeline, allowing us to draw conclusions about their interaction and the feasibility of potential mitigation strategies. We find that factors related to the training dataset and the underlying distribution play a decisive role in the occurrence of disparate impact, highlighting the need for research on these factors to address the issue.


Gaussian-Process-based Adaptive Tracking Control with Dynamic Active Learning for Autonomous Ground Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article proposes an active-learning-based adaptive trajectory tracking control method for autonomous ground vehicles to compensate for modeling errors and unmodeled dynamics. The nominal vehicle model is decoupled into lateral and longitudinal subsystems, which are augmented with online Gaussian Processes (GPs), using measurement data. The estimated mean functions of the GPs are used to construct a feedback compensator, which, together with an LPV state feedback controller designed for the nominal system, gives the adaptive control structure. To assist exploration of the dynamics, the paper proposes a new, dynamic active learning method to collect the most informative samples to accelerate the training process. To analyze the performance of the overall learning tool-chain provided controller, a novel iterative, counterexample-based algorithm is proposed for calculating the induced L2 gain between the reference trajectory and the tracking error. The analysis can be executed for a set of possible realizations of the to-be-controlled system, giving robust performance certificate of the learning method under variation of the vehicle dynamics. The efficiency of the proposed control approach is shown on a high-fidelity physics simulator and in real experiments using a 1/10 scale F1TENTH electric car.


Decision Making in Changing Environments: Robustness, Query-Based Learning, and Differential Privacy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of interactive decision making in which the underlying environment changes over time subject to given constraints. We propose a framework, which we call \textit{hybrid Decision Making with Structured Observations} (hybrid DMSO), that provides an interpolation between the stochastic and adversarial settings of decision making. Within this framework, we can analyze local differentially private (LDP) decision making, query-based learning (in particular, SQ learning), and robust and smooth decision making under the same umbrella, deriving upper and lower bounds based on variants of the Decision-Estimation Coefficient (DEC). We further establish strong connections between the DEC's behavior, the SQ dimension, local minimax complexity, learnability, and joint differential privacy. To showcase the framework's power, we provide new results for contextual bandits under the LDP constraint.


Hierarchical Count Echo State Network Models with Application to Graduate Student Enrollments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Poisson autoregressive count models have evolved into a time series staple for correlated count data. This paper proposes an alternative to Poisson autoregressions: count echo state networks. Echo state networks can be statistically analyzed in frequentist manners via optimizing penalized likelihoods, or in Bayesian manners via MCMC sampling. This paper develops Poisson echo state techniques for count data and applies them to a massive count data set containing the number of graduate students from 1,758 United States universities during the years 1972-2021 inclusive. Negative binomial models are also implemented to better handle overdispersion in the counts. Performance of the proposed models are compared via their forecasting performance as judged by several methods. In the end, a hierarchical negative binomial based echo state network is judged as the superior model.


Decoupled SGDA for Games with Intermittent Strategy Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We focus on reducing communication overhead in multiplayer games, where frequently exchanging strategies between players is not feasible and players have noisy or outdated strategies of the other players. We introduce Decoupled SGDA, a novel adaptation of Stochastic Gradient Descent Ascent (SGDA). In this approach, players independently update their strategies based on outdated opponent strategies, with periodic synchronization to align strategies. For Strongly-Convex-Strongly-Concave (SCSC) games, we demonstrate that Decoupled SGDA achieves near-optimal communication complexity comparable to the best-known GDA rates. For weakly coupled games where the interaction between players is lower relative to the non-interactive part of the game, Decoupled SGDA significantly reduces communication costs compared to standard SGDA. Our findings extend to multi-player games. To provide insights into the effect of communication frequency and convergence, we extensively study the convergence of Decoupled SGDA for quadratic minimax problems. Lastly, in settings where the noise over the players is imbalanced, Decoupled SGDA significantly outperforms federated minimax methods.


Context-Aware Neural Gradient Mapping for Fine-Grained Instruction Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of contextual embeddings into the optimization processes of large language models is an advancement in natural language processing. The Context-Aware Neural Gradient Mapping framework introduces a dynamic gradient adjustment mechanism, incorporating contextual embeddings directly into the optimization process. This approach facilitates real-time parameter adjustments, enhancing task-specific generalization even in the presence of sparse or noisy data inputs. The mathematical foundation of this framework relies on gradient descent modifications, where contextual embeddings are derived from a supplementary neural network trained to map input features to optimal adaptation gradients. By employing differential geometry principles, high-dimensional input dependencies are encoded into low-dimensional gradient manifolds, enabling efficient adaptation without necessitating the retraining of the entire model. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms baseline models across various metrics, including accuracy, robustness to noise, and computational efficiency. The integration of context-specific embeddings allows for a more complex understanding of language, thereby improving the model's ability to handle diverse linguistic phenomena. Furthermore, the computational efficiency achieved through this method demonstrates its scalability for large-scale language models operating under diverse constraints.


A Comprehensive Survey on Spectral Clustering with Graph Structure Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spectral clustering is a powerful technique for clustering high-dimensional data, utilizing graph-based representations to detect complex, non-linear structures and non-convex clusters. The construction of a similarity graph is essential for ensuring accurate and effective clustering, making graph structure learning (GSL) central for enhancing spectral clustering performance in response to the growing demand for scalable solutions. Despite advancements in GSL, there is a lack of comprehensive surveys specifically addressing its role within spectral clustering. To bridge this gap, this survey presents a comprehensive review of spectral clustering methods, emphasizing on the critical role of GSL. We explore various graph construction techniques, including pairwise, anchor, and hypergraph-based methods, in both fixed and adaptive settings. Additionally, we categorize spectral clustering approaches into single-view and multi-view frameworks, examining their applications within one-step and two-step clustering processes. We also discuss multi-view information fusion techniques and their impact on clustering data. By addressing current challenges and proposing future research directions, this survey provides valuable insights for advancing spectral clustering methodologies and highlights the pivotal role of GSL in tackling large-scale and high-dimensional data clustering tasks.


ECTIL: Label-efficient Computational Tumour Infiltrating Lymphocyte (TIL) assessment in breast cancer: Multicentre validation in 2,340 patients with breast cancer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The level of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) is a prognostic factor for patients with (triple-negative) breast cancer (BC). Computational TIL assessment (CTA) has the potential to assist pathologists in this labour-intensive task, but current CTA models rely heavily on many detailed annotations. We propose and validate a fundamentally simpler deep learning based CTA that can be trained in only ten minutes on hundredfold fewer pathologist annotations. We collected whole slide images (WSIs) with TILs scores and clinical data of 2,340 patients with BC from six cohorts including three randomised clinical trials. Morphological features were extracted from whole slide images (WSIs) using a pathology foundation model. Our label-efficient Computational stromal TIL assessment model (ECTIL) directly regresses the TILs score from these features. ECTIL trained on only a few hundred samples (ECTIL-TCGA) showed concordance with the pathologist over five heterogeneous external cohorts (r=0.54-0.74, AUROC=0.80-0.94). Training on all slides of five cohorts (ECTIL-combined) improved results on a held-out test set (r=0.69, AUROC=0.85). Multivariable Cox regression analyses indicated that every 10% increase of ECTIL scores was associated with improved overall survival independent of clinicopathological variables (HR 0.86, p<0.01), similar to the pathologist score (HR 0.87, p<0.001). We demonstrate that ECTIL is highly concordant with an expert pathologist and obtains a similar hazard ratio. ECTIL has a fundamentally simpler design than existing methods and can be trained on orders of magnitude fewer annotations. Such a CTA may be used to pre-screen patients for, e.g., immunotherapy clinical trial inclusion, or as a tool to assist clinicians in the diagnostic work-up of patients with BC. Our model is available under an open source licence (https://github.com/nki-ai/ectil).


AI-driven Wireless Positioning: Fundamentals, Standards, State-of-the-art, and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wireless positioning technologies hold significant value for applications in autonomous driving, extended reality (XR), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and more. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), leveraging AI to enhance positioning accuracy and robustness has emerged as a field full of potential. Driven by the requirements and functionalities defined in the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standards, AI/machine learning (ML)-based positioning is becoming a key technology to overcome the limitations of traditional methods. This paper begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of AI and wireless positioning, covering AI models, algorithms, positioning applications, emerging wireless technologies, and the basics of positioning techniques. Subsequently, focusing on standardization progress, we provide a comprehensive review of the evolution of 3GPP positioning standards, with an emphasis on the integration of AI/ML technologies in recent and upcoming releases. Based on the AI/ML-assisted positioning and direct AI/ML positioning schemes outlined in the standards, we conduct an in-depth investigation of related research. we focus on state-of-the-art (SOTA) research in AI-based line-of-sight (LOS)/non-line-of-sight (NLOS) detection, time of arrival (TOA)/time difference of arrival (TDOA) estimation, and angle estimation techniques. For Direct AI/ML Positioning, we explore SOTA advancements in fingerprint-based positioning, knowledge-assisted AI positioning, and channel charting-based positioning. Furthermore, we introduce publicly available datasets for wireless positioning and conclude by summarizing the challenges and opportunities of AI-driven wireless positioning.