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 Statistical Learning


StaICC: Standardized Evaluation for Classification Task in In-context Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classification tasks are widely investigated in the In-Context Learning (ICL) paradigm. However, current efforts are evaluated on disjoint benchmarks and settings, while their performances are significantly influenced by some trivial variables, such as prompt templates, data sampling, instructions, etc., which leads to significant inconsistencies in the results reported across various literature, preventing fair comparison or meta-analysis across different papers. Therefore, this paper proposes a standardized and easy-to-use evaluation toolkit (StaICC) for in-context classification. Including, for the normal classification task, we provide StaICC-Normal, selecting 10 widely used datasets, and generating prompts with a fixed form, to mitigate the variance among the experiment implementations. To enrich the usage of our benchmark, we also provide a sub-benchmark StaICC-Diag for diagnosing ICL from several aspects, aiming for a more robust inference processing.


Stochastic Linear Bandits with Latent Heterogeneity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper addresses the critical challenge of latent heterogeneity in online decision-making, where individual responses to business actions vary due to unobserved characteristics. While existing approaches in data-driven decision-making have focused on observable heterogeneity through contextual features, they fall short when heterogeneity stems from unobservable factors such as lifestyle preferences and personal experiences. We propose a novel latent heterogeneous bandit framework that explicitly models this unobserved heterogeneity in customer responses, with promotion targeting as our primary example. Our methodology introduces an innovative algorithm that simultaneously learns latent group memberships and group-specific reward functions. Through theoretical analysis and empirical validation using data from a mobile commerce platform, we establish high-probability bounds for parameter estimation, convergence rates for group classification, and comprehensive regret bounds. Notably, our theoretical analysis reveals two distinct types of regret measures: a ``strong regret'' against an oracle with perfect knowledge of customer memberships, which remains non-sub-linear due to inherent classification uncertainty, and a ``regular regret'' against an oracle aware only of deterministic components, for which our algorithm achieves a sub-linear rate that is minimax optimal in horizon length and dimension. We further demonstrate that existing bandit algorithms ignoring latent heterogeneity incur constant average regret that accumulates linearly over time. Our framework provides practitioners with new tools for decision-making under latent heterogeneity and extends to various business applications, including personalized pricing, resource allocation, and inventory management.


CAD: Confidence-Aware Adaptive Displacement for Semi-Supervised Medical Image Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Semi-supervised medical image segmentation aims to leverage minimal expert annotations, yet remains confronted by challenges in maintaining high-quality consistency learning. Excessive perturbations can degrade alignment and hinder precise decision boundaries, especially in regions with uncertain predictions. In this paper, we introduce Confidence-Aware Adaptive Displacement (CAD), a framework that selectively identifies and replaces the largest low-confidence regions with high-confidence patches. By dynamically adjusting both the maximum allowable replacement size and the confidence threshold throughout training, CAD progressively refines the segmentation quality without overwhelming the learning process. Experimental results on public medical datasets demonstrate that CAD effectively enhances segmentation quality, establishing new state-of-the-art accuracy in this field. The source code will be released after the paper is published.


Optimizing Feature Selection in Causal Inference: A Three-Stage Computational Framework for Unbiased Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature selection is an important but challenging task in causal inference for obtaining unbiased estimates of causal quantities. Properly selected features in causal inference not only significantly reduce the time required to implement a matching algorithm but, more importantly, can also reduce the bias and variance when estimating causal quantities. When feature selection techniques are applied in causal inference, the crucial criterion is to select variables that, when used for matching, can achieve an unbiased and robust estimation of causal quantities. Recent research suggests that balancing only on treatment-associated variables introduces bias while balancing on spurious variables increases variance. To address this issue, we propose an enhanced three-stage framework that shows a significant improvement in selecting the desired subset of variables compared to the existing state-of-the-art feature selection framework for causal inference, resulting in lower bias and variance in estimating the causal quantity. We evaluated our proposed framework using a state-of-the-art synthetic data across various settings and observed superior performance within a feasible computation time, ensuring scalability for large-scale datasets. Finally, to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed methodology using large-scale real-world data, we evaluated an important US healthcare policy related to the opioid epidemic crisis: whether opioid use disorder has a causal relationship with suicidal behavior.


Using Causality for Enhanced Prediction of Web Traffic Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting web service traffic has significant social value, as it can be applied to various practical scenarios, including but not limited to dynamic resource scaling, load balancing, system anomaly detection, service-level agreement compliance, and fraud detection. Web service traffic is characterized by frequent and drastic fluctuations over time and are influenced by heterogeneous web user behaviors, making accurate prediction a challenging task. Previous research has extensively explored statistical approaches, and neural networks to mine features from preceding service traffic time series for prediction. However, these methods have largely overlooked the causal relationships between services. Drawing inspiration from causality in ecological systems, we empirically recognize the causal relationships between web services. To leverage these relationships for improved web service traffic prediction, we propose an effective neural network module, CCMPlus, designed to extract causal relationship features across services. This module can be seamlessly integrated with existing time series models to consistently enhance the performance of web service traffic predictions. We theoretically justify that the causal correlation matrix generated by the CCMPlus module captures causal relationships among services. Empirical results on real-world datasets from Microsoft Azure, Alibaba Group, and Ant Group confirm that our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for predicting service traffic time series. These findings highlight the efficacy of leveraging causal relationships for improved predictions.


Muti-Fidelity Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification with Laplace Neural Operators for Parametric Partial Differential Equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Laplace Neural Operators (LNOs) have recently emerged as a promising approach in scientific machine learning due to the ability to learn nonlinear maps between functional spaces. However, this framework often requires substantial amounts of high-fidelity (HF) training data, which is often prohibitively expensive to acquire. To address this, we propose multi-fidelity Laplace Neural Operators (MF-LNOs), which combine a low-fidelity (LF) base model with parallel linear/nonlinear HF correctors and dynamic inter-fidelity weighting. This allows us to exploit correlations between LF and HF datasets and achieve accurate inference of quantities of interest even with sparse HF data. We further incorporate a modified replica exchange stochastic gradient Langevin algorithm, which enables a more effective posterior distribution estimation and uncertainty quantification in model predictions. Extensive validation across four canonical dynamical systems (the Lorenz system, Duffing oscillator, Burgers equation, and Brusselator reaction-diffusion system) demonstrates the framework's effectiveness. The results show significant improvements, with testing losses reduced by 40% to 80% compared to traditional approaches. This validates MF-LNO as a versatile tool for surrogate modeling in parametric PDEs, offering significant improvements in data efficiency and uncertainty-aware prediction.


CoHiRF: A Scalable and Interpretable Clustering Framework for High-Dimensional Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clustering high-dimensional data poses significant High-dimensional datasets suffer from the well-known challenges due to the curse of dimensionality, "curse of dimensionality." As the dimensionality p increases, scalability issues, and the presence of noisy and the relevant information often lies in a low-dimensional subspace, irrelevant features. We propose Consensus Hierarchical with the remaining dimensions contributing predominantly Random Feature (CoHiRF), a novel to noise. Consequently, data points tend to become clustering method designed to address these challenges equidistant in high-dimensional space, rendering traditional effectively. CoHiRF leverages random feature distance-based clustering algorithms, such as K-Means, less selection to mitigate noise and dimensionality effective (Beyer et al., 1999). Specifically, the Euclidean distance effects, repeatedly applies K-Means clustering metric loses its discriminative power, resulting in poor in reduced feature spaces, and combines results clustering performance. Another critical challenge is scalability: through a unanimous consensus criterion. This traditional clustering methods, originally designed iterative approach constructs a cluster assignment for low-dimensional or small datasets, often struggle with matrix, where each row records the cluster assignments high computational and memory demands when applied of a sample across repetitions, enabling the to high-dimensional data settings (Steinbach et al., 2004; identification of stable clusters by comparing identical Assent, 2012; Zimek et al., 2012; Mahdi et al., 2021).


Comparative Analysis of Community Detection Algorithms on the SNAP Social Circles Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In network research, Community Detection has always been a topic of significant interest in network science, with numerous papers and algorithms proposing to uncover the underlying structures within networks. In this paper, we conduct a comparative analysis of several prominent community detection algorithms applied to the SNAP Social Circles Dataset, derived from the Facebook Social Media network. The algorithms implemented include Louvain, Girvan-Newman, Spectral Clustering, K-Means Clustering, etc. We evaluate the performance of these algorithms based on various metrics such as modularity, normalized cut-ratio, silhouette score, compactness, and separability. Our findings reveal insights into the effectiveness of each algorithm in detecting various meaningful communities within the social network, shedding light on their strength and limitations. This research contributes to the understanding of community detection methods and provides valuable guidance for their application in analyzing real-world social networks.


Point-LN: A Lightweight Framework for Efficient Point Cloud Classification Using Non-Parametric Positional Encoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce Point-LN, a novel lightweight framework engineered for efficient 3D point cloud classification. Point-LN integrates essential non-parametric components-such as Farthest Point Sampling (FPS), k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), and non-learnable positional encoding-with a streamlined learnable classifier that significantly enhances classification accuracy while maintaining a minimal parameter footprint. This hybrid architecture ensures low computational costs and rapid inference speeds, making Point-LN ideal for real-time and resource-constrained applications. Comprehensive evaluations on benchmark datasets, including ModelNet40 and ScanObjectNN, demonstrate that Point-LN achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods, all while offering exceptional efficiency. These results establish Point-LN as a robust and scalable solution for diverse point cloud classification tasks, highlighting its potential for widespread adoption in various computer vision applications.


Addressing Delayed Feedback in Conversion Rate Prediction via Influence Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the realm of online digital advertising, conversion rate (CVR) prediction plays a pivotal role in maximizing revenue under cost-per-conversion (CPA) models, where advertisers are charged only when users complete specific actions, such as making a purchase. A major challenge in CVR prediction lies in the delayed feedback problem-conversions may occur hours or even weeks after initial user interactions. This delay complicates model training, as recent data may be incomplete, leading to biases and diminished performance. Although existing methods attempt to address this issue, they often fall short in adapting to evolving user behaviors and depend on auxiliary models, which introduces computational inefficiencies and the risk of model inconsistency. In this work, we propose an Influence Function-empowered framework for Delayed Feedback Modeling (IF-DFM). IF-DFM leverages influence functions to estimate how newly acquired and delayed conversion data impact model parameters, enabling efficient parameter updates without the need for full retraining. Additionally, we present a scalable algorithm that efficiently computes parameter updates by reframing the inverse Hessian-vector product as an optimization problem, striking a balance between computational efficiency and effectiveness. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that IF-DFM consistently surpasses state-of-the-art methods, significantly enhancing both prediction accuracy and model adaptability.