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 Statistical Learning


Unifying and Optimizing Data Values for Selection via Sequential-Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data selection has emerged as a crucial downstream application of data valuation. While existing data valuation methods have shown promise in selection tasks, the theoretical foundations and full potential of using data values for selection remain largely unexplored. In this work, we first demonstrate that data values applied for selection can be naturally reformulated as a sequential-decision-making problem, where the optimal data value can be derived through dynamic programming. We show this framework unifies and reinterprets existing methods like Data Shapley through the lens of approximate dynamic programming, specifically as myopic reward function approximations to this sequential problem. Furthermore, we analyze how sequential data selection optimality is affected when the ground-truth utility function exhibits monotonic submodularity with curvature. To address the computational challenges in obtaining optimal data values, we propose an efficient approximation scheme using learned bipartite graphs as surrogate utility models, ensuring greedy selection is still optimal when the surrogate utility is correctly specified and learned. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across diverse datasets.


Statistical guarantees for continuous-time policy evaluation: blessing of ellipticity and new tradeoffs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Similar to the Markov decision process (MDP) framework in discrete-time, the continuous-time controlled diffusion processes provide a natural framework for modeling such continuous-time decision-making problems. With discrete-time observations from the continuous-time dynamics, the continuous-time RL problem can be viewed as a discrete-time MDP, allowing us to apply standard techniques. In particular, the model-free RL algorithms offers flexibility of function approximation. By fitting the value function and/or control policy with powerful statistical learning models including neural networks, one can efficiently learn the optimal decisions in high-dimensional and complex environments. Despite the empirical success, however, the theoretical understanding of continuous-time RL algorithms is still in its infancy. In particular, when applied to continuous-time diffusion processes, the statistical guarantees for value learning algorithms are largely unknown. The theoretical gap also leads to practical limitations, as the fundamental tradeoffs in the choice of function approximations, discretization step length, and the trajectory length remain elusive. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by providing sharp statistical guarantees for value function estimation in continuous-time diffusion processes.


MXMap: A Multivariate Cross Mapping Framework for Causal Discovery in Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.


Stein Discrepancy for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) leverages information from a labeled source dataset to improve accuracy on a related but unlabeled target dataset. A common approach to UDA is aligning representations from the source and target domains by minimizing the distance between their data distributions. Previous methods have employed distances such as Wasserstein distance and maximum mean discrepancy. However, these approaches are less effective when the target data is significantly scarcer than the source data. Stein discrepancy is an asymmetric distance between distributions that relies on one distribution only through its score function. In this paper, we propose a novel UDA method that uses Stein discrepancy to measure the distance between source and target domains. We develop a learning framework using both non-kernelized and kernelized Stein discrepancy. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound for the generalization error. Numerical experiments show that our method outperforms existing methods using other domain discrepancy measures when only small amounts of target data are available.


Keep It Light! Simplifying Image Clustering Via Text-Free Adapters

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many competitive clustering pipelines have a multi-modal design, leveraging large language models (LLMs) or other text encoders, and text-image pairs, which are often unavailable in real-world downstream applications. Additionally, such frameworks are generally complicated to train and require substantial computational resources, making widespread adoption challenging. In this work, we show that in deep clustering, competitive performance with more complex state-of-the-art methods can be achieved using a text-free and highly simplified training pipeline. In particular, our approach, Simple Clustering via Pre-trained models (SCP), trains only a small cluster head while leveraging pre-trained vision model feature representations and positive data pairs. Experiments on benchmark datasets including CIFAR-10, CIFAR-20, CIFAR-100, STL-10, ImageNet-10, and ImageNet-Dogs, demonstrate that SCP achieves highly competitive performance. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical result explaining why, at least under ideal conditions, additional text-based embeddings may not be necessary to achieve strong clustering performance in vision.


Temporal Distribution Shift in Real-World Pharmaceutical Data: Implications for Uncertainty Quantification in QSAR Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation of resources. Several computational tools exist that estimate the predictive uncertainty in machine learning models. However, deviations from the i.i.d. setting have been shown to impair the performance of these uncertainty quantification methods. We use a real-world pharmaceutical dataset to address the pressing need for a comprehensive, large-scale evaluation of uncertainty estimation methods in the context of realistic distribution shifts over time. We investigate the performance of several uncertainty estimation methods, including ensemble-based and Bayesian approaches. Furthermore, we use this real-world setting to systematically assess the distribution shifts in label and descriptor space and their impact on the capability of the uncertainty estimation methods. Our study reveals significant shifts over time in both label and descriptor space and a clear connection between the magnitude of the shift and the nature of the assay. Moreover, we show that pronounced distribution shifts impair the performance of popular uncertainty estimation methods used in QSAR models. This work highlights the challenges of identifying uncertainty quantification methods that remain reliable under distribution shifts introduced by real-world data.


Phonetic Reconstruction of the Consonant System of Middle Chinese via Mixed Integer Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper is concerned with phonetic reconstruction of the consonant system of Middle Chinese. We propose to cast the problem as a Mixed Integer Programming problem, which is able to automatically explore homophonic information from ancient rhyme dictionaries and phonetic information from modern Chinese dialects, the descendants of Middle Chinese. Numerical evaluation on a wide range of synthetic and real data demonstrates the effectiveness and robustness of the new method. We apply the method to information from Guangyun and 20 modern Chinese dialects to obtain a new phonetic reconstruction result. A linguistically-motivated discussion of this result is also provided.


Graph Neural Network-Driven Hierarchical Mining for Complex Imbalanced Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents a hierarchical mining framework for high-dimensional imbalanced data, leveraging a depth graph model to address the inherent performance limitations of conventional approaches in handling complex, high-dimensional data distributions with imbalanced sample representations. By constructing a structured graph representation of the dataset and integrating graph neural network (GNN) embeddings, the proposed method effectively captures global interdependencies among samples. Furthermore, a hierarchical strategy is employed to enhance the characterization and extraction of minority class feature patterns, thereby facilitating precise and robust imbalanced data mining. Empirical evaluations across multiple experimental scenarios validate the efficacy of the proposed approach, demonstrating substantial improvements over traditional methods in key performance metrics, including pattern discovery count, average support, and minority class coverage. Notably, the method exhibits superior capabilities in minority-class feature extraction and pattern correlation analysis. These findings underscore the potential of depth graph models, in conjunction with hierarchical mining strategies, to significantly enhance the efficiency and accuracy of imbalanced data analysis. This research contributes a novel computational framework for high-dimensional complex data processing and lays the foundation for future extensions to dynamically evolving imbalanced data and multi-modal data applications, thereby expanding the applicability of advanced data mining methodologies to more intricate analytical domains.


On the importance of structural identifiability for machine learning with partially observed dynamical systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The successful application of modern machine learning for time series classification is often hampered by limitations in quality and quantity of available training data. To overcome these limitations, available domain expert knowledge in the form of parametrised mechanistic dynamical models can be used whenever it is available and time series observations may be represented as an element from a given class of parametrised dynamical models. This makes the learning process interpretable and allows the modeller to deal with sparsely and irregularly sampled data in a natural way. However, the internal processes of a dynamical model are often only partially observed. This can lead to ambiguity regarding which particular model realization best explains a given time series observation. This problem is well-known in the literature, and a dynamical model with this issue is referred to as structurally unidentifiable. Training a classifier that incorporates knowledge about a structurally unidentifiable dynamical model can negatively influence classification performance. To address this issue, we employ structural identifiability analysis to explicitly relate parameter configurations that are associated with identical system outputs. Using the derived relations in classifier training, we demonstrate that this method significantly improves the classifier's ability to generalize to unseen data on a number of example models from the biomedical domain. This effect is especially pronounced when the number of training instances is limited. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for structural identifiability, a topic that has received relatively little attention from the machine learning community.


LATTEO: A Framework to Support Learning Asynchronously Tempered with Trusted Execution and Obfuscation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The privacy vulnerabilities of the federated learning (FL) paradigm, primarily caused by gradient leakage, have prompted the development of various defensive measures. Nonetheless, these solutions have predominantly been crafted for and assessed in the context of synchronous FL systems, with minimal focus on asynchronous FL. This gap arises in part due to the unique challenges posed by the asynchronous setting, such as the lack of coordinated updates, increased variability in client participation, and the potential for more severe privacy risks. These concerns have stymied the adoption of asynchronous FL. In this work, we first demonstrate the privacy vulnerabilities of asynchronous FL through a novel data reconstruction attack that exploits gradient updates to recover sensitive client data. To address these vulnerabilities, we propose a privacy-preserving framework that combines a gradient obfuscation mechanism with Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) for secure asynchronous FL aggregation at the network edge. To overcome the limitations of conventional enclave attestation, we introduce a novel data-centric attestation mechanism based on Multi-Authority Attribute-Based Encryption. This mechanism enables clients to implicitly verify TEE-based aggregation services, effectively handle on-demand client participation, and scale seamlessly with an increasing number of asynchronous connections. Our gradient obfuscation mechanism reduces the structural similarity index of data reconstruction by 85% and increases reconstruction error by 400%, while our framework improves attestation efficiency by lowering average latency by up to 1500% compared to RA-TLS, without additional overhead.