We study the algorithmic problem of robust mean estimation of an identity covariance Gaussian in the presence of mean-shift contamination. In this contamination model, we are given a set of points in $\mathbb{R}^d$ generated i.i.d. via the following process. For a parameter $\alpha<1/2$, the $i$-th sample $x_i$ is obtained as follows: with probability $1-\alpha$, $x_i$ is drawn from $\mathcal{N}(\mu, I)$, where $\mu \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is the target mean; and with probability $\alpha$, $x_i$ is drawn from $\mathcal{N}(z_i, I)$, where $z_i$ is unknown and potentially arbitrary. Prior work characterized the information-theoretic limits of this task. Specifically, it was shown that, in contrast to Huber contamination, in the presence of mean-shift contamination consistent estimation is possible. On the other hand, all known robust estimators in the mean-shift model have running times exponential in the dimension. Here we give the first computationally efficient algorithm for high-dimensional robust mean estimation with mean-shift contamination that can tolerate a constant fraction of outliers. In particular, our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in sample-polynomial time, and approximates the target mean to any desired accuracy. Conceptually, our result contributes to a growing body of work that studies inference with respect to natural noise models lying in between fully adversarial and random settings.

Causal discovery aims to infer causal graphs from observational or experimental data. Methods such as the popular PC algorithm are based on conditional independence testing and utilize enabling assumptions, such as the faithfulness assumption, for their inferences. In practice, these assumptions, as well as the functional assumptions inherited from the chosen conditional independence test, are typically taken as a given and not further tested for their validity on the data. In this work, we propose internal coherency scores that allow testing for assumption violations and finite sample errors, whenever detectable without requiring ground truth or further statistical tests. We provide a complete classification of erroneous results, including a distinction between detectable and undetectable errors, and prove that the detectable erroneous results can be measured by our scores. We illustrate our coherency scores on the PC algorithm with simulated and real-world datasets, and envision that testing for internal coherency can become a standard tool in applying constraint-based methods, much like a suite of tests is used to validate the assumptions of classical regression analysis.

We present a universal framework for constructing confidence sets based on sequential likelihood mixing. Building upon classical results from sequential analysis, we provide a unifying perspective on several recent lines of work, and establish fundamental connections between sequential mixing, Bayesian inference and regret inequalities from online estimation. The framework applies to any realizable family of likelihood functions and allows for non-i.i.d. data and anytime validity. Moreover, the framework seamlessly integrates standard approximate inference techniques, such as variational inference and sampling-based methods, and extends to misspecified model classes, while preserving provable coverage guarantees. We illustrate the power of the framework by deriving tighter confidence sequences for classical settings, including sequential linear regression and sparse estimation, with simplified proofs.

In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised transfer learning method called Distribution Matching (DM), which drives the representation distribution toward a predefined reference distribution while preserving augmentation invariance. The design of DM results in a learned representation space that is intuitively structured and offers easily interpretable hyperparameters. Experimental results across multiple real-world datasets and evaluation metrics demonstrate that DM performs competitively on target classification tasks compared to existing self-supervised transfer learning methods. Additionally, we provide robust theoretical guarantees for DM, including a population theorem and an end-to-end sample theorem. The population theorem bridges the gap between the self-supervised learning task and target classification accuracy, while the sample theorem shows that, even with a limited number of samples from the target domain, DM can deliver exceptional classification performance, provided the unlabeled sample size is sufficiently large.

Adversarial robustness of machine learning models is critical to ensuring reliable performance under data perturbations. Recent progress has been on point estimators, and this paper considers distributional predictors. First, using the link between exponential families and Bregman divergences, we formulate an adversarial Bregman divergence loss as an adversarial negative log-likelihood. Using the geometric properties of Bregman divergences, we compute the adversarial perturbation for such models in closed-form. Second, under such losses, we introduce \emph{adversarially robust posteriors}, by exploiting the optimization-centric view of generalized Bayesian inference. Third, we derive the \emph{first} rigorous generalization certificates in the context of an adversarial extension of Bayesian linear regression by leveraging the PAC-Bayesian framework. Finally, experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior robustness of the derived adversarially robust posterior over Bayes posterior, and also validate our theoretical guarantees.

Text embeddings are typically evaluated on a limited set of tasks, which are constrained by language, domain, and task diversity. To address these limitations and provide a more comprehensive evaluation, we introduce the Massive Multilingual Text Embedding Benchmark (MMTEB) - a large-scale, community-driven expansion of MTEB, covering over 500 quality-controlled evaluation tasks across 250+ languages. MMTEB includes a diverse set of challenging, novel tasks such as instruction following, long-document retrieval, and code retrieval, representing the largest multilingual collection of evaluation tasks for embedding models to date. Using this collection, we develop several highly multilingual benchmarks, which we use to evaluate a representative set of models. We find that while large language models (LLMs) with billions of parameters can achieve state-of-the-art performance on certain language subsets and task categories, the best-performing publicly available model is multilingual-e5-large-instruct with only 560 million parameters. To facilitate accessibility and reduce computational cost, we introduce a novel downsampling method based on inter-task correlation, ensuring a diverse selection while preserving relative model rankings. Furthermore, we optimize tasks such as retrieval by sampling hard negatives, creating smaller but effective splits. These optimizations allow us to introduce benchmarks that drastically reduce computational demands. For instance, our newly introduced zero-shot English benchmark maintains a ranking order similar to the full-scale version but at a fraction of the computational cost.

In green security, defenders must forecast adversarial behavior, such as poaching, illegal logging, and illegal fishing, to plan effective patrols. These behavior are often highly uncertain and complex. Prior work has leveraged game theory to design robust patrol strategies to handle uncertainty, but existing adversarial behavior models primarily rely on Gaussian processes or linear models, which lack the expressiveness needed to capture intricate behavioral patterns. To address this limitation, we propose a conditional diffusion model for adversary behavior modeling, leveraging its strong distribution-fitting capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of diffusion models in the green security domain. Integrating diffusion models into game-theoretic optimization, however, presents new challenges, including a constrained mixed strategy space and the need to sample from an unnormalized distribution to estimate utilities. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a mixed strategy of mixed strategies and employ a twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for accurate sampling. Theoretically, our algorithm is guaranteed to converge to an epsilon equilibrium with high probability using a finite number of iterations and samples. Empirically, we evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world poaching datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness.

In oncology, recurrence after treatment is one of the major challenges, related to patients' survival and quality of life. Conventionally, prediction of cancer relapse has always relied on clinical observation with statistical model support, which almost f ails to explain the complex, multifactorial nature of tumor recurrence. This research explores how AI and ML models may incre ase the accuracy and reliability of recurrence prediction in cancer. Therefore, AI and ML create new opportunities not only for pe rsonalized medicine but also for proactive management of patients through analyzing large volumes of data on genetics, clinic al manifestations, and treatment. The paper describes the various AI and ML techniques for pattern identification and outcome predi ction in cancer patients using supervised and unsupervised learning. Clinical implications provide an opportunity to review how early interventions could happen and the design of treatment planning.

Sleep staging is a central aspect of sleep assessment and research the accuracy of sleep staging is not only relevant to the assessment of sleep quality [3] but also key to achieving early intervention for sleep disorders and related psychiatric disorders [4]. Polysomnography is a multi-parameter study of sleep [5], a test to diagnose sleep disorders through different types of physiological signals recorded during sleep, such as electroencephalography (EEG), cardiography (CG), electrooculography (EOG), electromyography (EMG), oro-nasal airflow and oxygen saturation [6]. According to the Rechtschaffen and Kales (R&K) rule, PSG signals are usually divided into 30-second segments and classified into six sleep stages, namely wakefulness (Wake), four non-rapid eye movement stages (i.e., S1, S2, S3, and S4), and rapid eye movement (REM). In 2007, the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) adopted the Rechtschaffen & Kales (R&K) sleep staging system for Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) sleep. Sleep specialists typically utilize these criteria for the manual classification of sleep stages, a process that is not only labor-intensive but also prone to subjective bias [7]. Therefore, automated sleep staging is a more efficient alternative to manual methods and has more clinical value [8].

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely applied in question answering over scientific research papers. To enhance the professionalism and accuracy of responses, many studies employ external knowledge augmentation. However, existing structures of external knowledge in scientific literature often focus solely on either paper entities or domain concepts, neglecting the intrinsic connections between papers through shared domain concepts. This results in less comprehensive and specific answers when addressing questions that combine papers and concepts. To address this, we propose a novel knowledge graph framework that captures deep conceptual relations between academic papers, constructing a relational network via intra-paper semantic elements and inter-paper citation relations. Using a few-shot knowledge graph construction method based on LLM, we develop NLP-AKG, an academic knowledge graph for the NLP domain, by extracting 620,353 entities and 2,271,584 relations from 60,826 papers in ACL Anthology. Based on this, we propose a 'sub-graph community summary' method and validate its effectiveness on three NLP scientific literature question answering datasets.