Because of the global need to increase power production from renewable energy resources, developments in the online monitoring of the associated infrastructure is of interest to reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, challenges exist for data-driven approaches to this problem, such as incomplete or limited histories of labelled damage-state data, operational and environmental variability, or the desire for the quantification of uncertainty to support risk management. This work first introduces a probabilistic regression model for predicting wind-turbine power, which adjusts for wake effects learnt from data. Spatial correlations in the learned model parameters for different tasks (turbines) are then leveraged in a hierarchical Bayesian model (an approach to multi-task learning) to develop a "metamodel", which can be used to make power-predictions which adjust for turbine location - including on previously unobserved turbines not included in the training data. The results show that the metamodel is able to outperform a series of benchmark models, and demonstrates a novel strategy for making efficient use of data for inference in populations of structures, in particular where correlations exist in the variable(s) of interest (such as those from wind-turbine wake-effects).

Electrocardiograms (ECGs) are essential for monitoring cardiac health, allowing clinicians to analyze heart rate variability (HRV), detect abnormal rhythms, and diagnose cardiovascular diseases. However, ECG signals, especially those from wearable devices, are often affected by noise artifacts caused by motion, muscle activity, or device-related interference. These artifacts distort R-peaks and the characteristic QRS complex, making HRV analysis unreliable and increasing the risk of misdiagnosis. Despite this, the few existing studies on ECG noise detection have primarily focused on a single dataset, limiting the understanding of how well noise detection models generalize across different datasets. In this paper, we investigate the generalizability of noise detection in ECG using a novel HRV-based approach through cross-dataset experiments on four datasets. Our results show that machine learning achieves an average accuracy of over 90\% and an AUPRC of more than 0.9. These findings suggest that regardless of the ECG data source or the type of noise, the proposed method maintains high accuracy even on unseen datasets, demonstrating the feasibility of generalizability.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show that shifts in semantic embedding space can be causally linked to financial market shocks -- deviations from the expected market behaviour. Furthermore, we show how partisanship can influence the predictive power of text for market fluctuations and shape reactions to those same shocks. We also provide some evidence that text-based signals are particularly salient during unexpected events such as COVID-19, highlighting the value of language data as an exogenous variable in economic forecasting. Our findings underscore the bidirectional relationship between news outlets and market shocks, offering a novel empirical approach to studying their effect on each other.

The aim of this paper is to develop novel quantum algorithms for Gaussian process quadrature methods. Gaussian process quadratures are numerical integration methods where Gaussian processes are used as functional priors for the integrands to capture the uncertainty arising from the sparse function evaluations. Quantum computers have emerged as potential replacements for classical computers, offering exponential reductions in the computational complexity of machine learning tasks. In this paper, we combine Gaussian process quadratures and quantum computing by proposing a quantum low-rank Gaussian process quadrature method based on a Hilbert space approximation of the Gaussian process kernel and enhancing the quadrature using a quantum circuit. The method combines the quantum phase estimation algorithm with the quantum principal component analysis technique to extract information up to a desired rank. Then, Hadamard and SW AP tests are implemented to find the expected value and variance that determines the quadrature. We use numerical simulations of a quantum computer to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical complexity analysis that shows a polynomial advantage over classical Gaussian process quadrature methods.

Information in text is communicated in a way that supports a goal for its reader. Product reviews, for example, contain opinions, tips, product descriptions, and many other types of information that provide both direct insights, as well as unexpected signals for downstream applications. We devise a typology of 24 communicative goals in sentences from the product review domain, and employ a zero-shot multi-label classifier that facilitates large-scale analyses of review data. In our experiments, we find that the combination of classes in the typology forecasts helpfulness and sentiment of reviews, while supplying explanations for these decisions. In addition, our typology enables analysis of review intent, effectiveness and rhetorical structure. Characterizing the types of information in reviews unlocks many opportunities for more effective consumption of this genre.

Birth weight serves as a fundamental indicator of neonatal health, closely linked to both early medical interventions and long-term developmental risks. Traditional predictive models, often constrained by limited feature selection and incomplete datasets, struggle to achieve overlooking complex maternal and fetal interactions in diverse clinical settings. This research explores machine learning to address these limitations, utilizing a structured methodology that integrates advanced imputation strategies, supervised feature selection techniques, and predictive modeling. Given the constraints of the dataset, the research strengthens the role of data preprocessing in improving the model performance. Among the various methodologies explored, tree-based feature selection methods demonstrated superior capability in identifying the most relevant predictors, while ensemble-based regression models proved highly effective in capturing non-linear relationships and complex maternal-fetal interactions within the data. Beyond model performance, the study highlights the clinical significance of key physiological determinants, offering insights into maternal and fetal health factors that influence birth weight, offering insights that extend over statistical modeling. By bridging computational intelligence with perinatal research, this work underscores the transformative role of machine learning in enhancing predictive accuracy, refining risk assessment and informing data-driven decision-making in maternal and neonatal care. Keywords: Birth weight prediction, maternal-fetal health, MICE, BART, Gradient Boosting, neonatal outcomes, Clinipredictive.

Effective resource management and environmental planning in regions with high climatic variability, such as Chile, demand advanced predictive tools. This study addresses this challenge by employing an innovative and computationally efficient hybrid methodology that integrates machine learning (ML) methods for time series forecasting with established statistical techniques. The spatiotemporal data undergo decomposition using time-dependent Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), denoted as \(\phi_{k}(t)\), and their corresponding spatial coefficients, \(\alpha_{k}(s)\), to reduce dimensionality. Wavelet analysis provides high-resolution time and frequency information from the \(\phi_{k}(t)\) functions, while neural networks forecast these functions within a medium-range horizon \(h\). By utilizing various ML models, particularly a Wavelet - ANN hybrid model, we forecast \(\phi_{k}(t+h)\) up to a time horizon \(h\), and subsequently reconstruct the spatiotemporal data using these extended EOFs. This methodology is applied to a grid of climate data covering the territory of Chile. It transitions from a high-dimensional multivariate spatiotemporal data forecasting problem to a low-dimensional univariate forecasting problem. Additionally, cluster analysis with Dynamic Time Warping for defining similarities between rainfall time series, along with spatial coherence and predictability assessments, has been instrumental in identifying geographic areas where model performance is enhanced. This approach also elucidates the reasons behind poor forecast performance in regions or clusters with low spatial coherence and predictability. By utilizing cluster medoids, the forecasting process becomes more practical and efficient. This compound approach significantly reduces computational complexity while generating forecasts of reasonable accuracy and utility.

EDU Department of Statistics, Harvard University 1 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA Abstract We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form σ ( ˆw x), where the feature vector x is Gaussian, σ is a link function, and ˆ w is an estimator of the true linear weight w . By interpolating with a noninformative chance classifier, we construct a well-calibrated predictor whose interpolation weight depends on the angle ( ˆw,w) between the estimator ˆ w and the true linear weight w . We establish that this angular calibration approach is provably well-calibrated in a high-dimensional regime where the number of samples and features both diverge, at a comparable rate. The angle ( ˆw,w) can be consistently estimated. Furthermore, the resulting predictor is uniquely Bregman-optimal, minimizing the Bregman divergence to the true label distribution within a suitable class of calibrated predictors. Our work is the first to provide a calibration strategy that satisfies both calibration and optimality properties provably in high dimensions. Additionally, we identify conditions under which a classical Platt-scaling predictor converges to our Bregman-optimal calibrated solution. Thus, Platt-scaling also inherits these desirable properties provably in high dimensions. Keywords: Calibration; Binary Classification; High Dimensions; Bregman Divergence 1. Introduction Calibration of predictive models is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning, especially in applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification.

We study the fundamental problem of learning with respect to the squared loss in a convex class. The state-of-the-art sample complexity estimates in this setting rely on Rademacher complexities, which are generally difficult to control. We prove that, contrary to prevailing belief and under minimal assumptions, the sample complexity is not governed by the Rademacher complexities but rather by the behaviour of the limiting gaussian process. In particular, all such learning problems that have the same $L_2$-structure -- even those with heavy-tailed distributions -- share the same sample complexity. This constitutes the first universality result for general convex learning problems. The proof is based on a novel learning procedure, and its performance is studied by combining optimal mean estimation techniques for real-valued random variables with Talagrand's generic chaining method.

Predicting missing segments in partially observed functions is challenging due to infinite-dimensionality, complex dependence within and across observations, and irregular noise. These challenges are further exacerbated by the existence of two distinct sources of variation in functional data, termed amplitude (variation along the $y$-axis) and phase (variation along the $x$-axis). While registration can disentangle them from complete functional data, the process is more difficult for partial observations. Thus, existing methods for functional data prediction often ignore phase variation. Furthermore, they rely on strong parametric assumptions, and require either precise model specifications or computationally intensive techniques, such as bootstrapping, to construct prediction intervals. To tackle this problem, we propose a unified registration and prediction approach for partially observed functions under the conformal prediction framework, which separately focuses on the amplitude and phase components. By leveraging split conformal methods, our approach integrates registration and prediction while ensuring exchangeability through carefully constructed predictor-response pairs. Using a neighborhood smoothing algorithm, the framework produces pointwise prediction bands with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees under weak assumptions. The method is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and suitable for parallelization. Numerical studies and real-world data examples clearly demonstrate the effectiveness and practical utility of the proposed approach.