Statistical Learning
Improving the statistical efficiency of cross-conformal prediction
Gasparin, Matteo, Ramdas, Aaditya
Conformal prediction has emerged as a general and versatile framework for constructing prediction sets in regression and classification tasks (Shafer and Vovk, 2008). Unlike traditional methods, which often depend on rigid distributional assumptions, conformal prediction transforms point predictions from any prediction (or black-box) algorithm into prediction sets that guarantee valid finite-sample marginal coverage. Originally introduced by Vovk et al. (2005), it has become increasingly influential, with numerous methods and extensions being proposed since its introduction. In particular, full conformal prediction by Vovk et al. (2005), demonstrates favorable properties regarding the coverage and the size of the prediction set. However, these advantages are counterbalanced by a substantial computational cost, which limits its practical application.
Graph Attention Networks Unleashed: A Fast and Explainable Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Microgrids
Liu, Wei, Zhang, Tao, Lin, Chenhui, Li, Kaiwen, Wang, Rui
--Independent microgrids are crucial for supplying electricity by combining distributed energy resources and loads in scenarios like isolated islands and field combat. Fast and accurate assessments of microgrid vulnerability against intentional attacks or natural disasters are essential for effective risk prevention and design optimization. However, conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods are computationally expensive and time-consuming, while existing machine learning-based approaches often lack accuracy and explainability. T o address these challenges, this study proposes a fast and explainable vulnerability assessment framework that integrates MCS with a graph attention network enhanced by self-attention pooling (GA T -S). MCS generates training data, while the GA T - S model learns the structural and electrical characteristics of the microgrid and further assesses its vulnerability intelligently. The GA T -S improves explainability and computational efficiency by dynamically assigning attention weights to critical nodes. Comprehensive experimental evaluations across various micro-grid configurations demonstrate that the proposed framework provides accurate vulnerability assessments, achieving a mean squared error as low as 0.001, real-time responsiveness within 1 second, and delivering explainable results. An independent microgrid, like a battlefield or island mi-crogrid, operates separately from the main grid, supplying electricity to a localized area by integrating distributed energy resources and loads via interconnected buses, transformers, and lines. Assessing the vulnerability of independent micro-grids is essential to ensure its normal power supply capacity against disruptions, particularly in scenarios like deliberate attacks and natural disasters. Chenhui Lin is with the State Key Laboratory of Power Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Active Learning for Direct Preference Optimization
Kveton, Branislav, Li, Xintong, McAuley, Julian, Rossi, Ryan, Shang, Jingbo, Wu, Junda, Yu, Tong
Direct preference optimization (DPO) is a form of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) where the policy is learned directly from preferential feedback. Although many models of human preferences exist, the critical task of selecting the most informative feedback for training them is under-explored. We propose an active learning framework for DPO, which can be applied to collect human feedback online or to choose the most informative subset of already collected feedback offline. We propose efficient algorithms for both settings. The key idea is to linearize the DPO objective at the last layer of the neural network representation of the optimized policy and then compute the D-optimal design to collect preferential feedback. We prove that the errors in our DPO logit estimates diminish with more feedback. We show the effectiveness of our algorithms empirically in the setting that matches our theory and also on large language models.
Towards Multi-Stakeholder Evaluation of ML Models: A Crowdsourcing Study on Metric Preferences in Job-matching System
While machine learning (ML) technology affects diverse stakeholders, there is no one-size-fits-all metric to evaluate the quality of outputs, including performance and fairness. Using predetermined metrics without soliciting stakeholder opinions is problematic because it leads to an unfair disregard for stakeholders in the ML pipeline. In this study, to establish practical ways to incorporate diverse stakeholder opinions into the selection of metrics for ML, we investigate participants' preferences for different metrics by using crowdsourcing. We ask 837 participants to choose a better model from two hypothetical ML models in a hypothetical job-matching system twenty times and calculate their utility values for seven metrics. To examine the participants' feedback in detail, we divide them into five clusters based on their utility values and analyze the tendencies of each cluster, including their preferences for metrics and common attributes. Based on the results, we discuss the points that should be considered when selecting appropriate metrics and evaluating ML models with multiple stakeholders.
Cyber for AI at SemEval-2025 Task 4: Forgotten but Not Lost: The Balancing Act of Selective Unlearning in Large Language Models
P, Dinesh Srivasthav, Garlapati, Bala Mallikarjunarao
Large Language Models (LLMs) face significant challenges in maintaining privacy, ethics, and compliance, when sensitive or obsolete data must be selectively removed. Retraining these models from scratch is computationally infeasible, necessitating efficient alternatives. As part of the SemEval 2025 Task 4, this work focuses on the application of selective unlearning in LLMs to address this challenge. In this paper, we present our experiments and findings, primarily leveraging global weight modification to achieve an equilibrium between effectiveness of unlearning, knowledge retention, and target model's post-unlearning utility. We also detail the task-specific evaluation mechanism, results, and challenges. Our algorithms have achieved an aggregate score of 0.409 and 0.389 on the test set for 7B and 1B target models, respectively, demonstrating promising results in verifiable LLM unlearning.
Adversarial Generative Flow Network for Solving Vehicle Routing Problems
Zhang, Ni, Yang, Jingfeng, Cao, Zhiguang, Chi, Xu
Recent research into solving vehicle routing problems (VRPs) has gained significant traction, particularly through the application of deep (reinforcement) learning for end-to-end solution construction. However, many current construction-based neural solvers predominantly utilize Transformer architectures, which can face scalability challenges and struggle to produce diverse solutions. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel framework beyond Transformer-based approaches, i.e., Adversarial Generative Flow Networks (AGFN). These models are trained alternately in an adversarial manner to improve the overall solution quality, followed by a proposed hybrid decoding method to construct the solution. We apply the AGFN framework to solve the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) and the travelling salesman problem (TSP), and our experimental results demonstrate that AGFN surpasses the popular construction-based neural solvers, showcasing strong generalization capabilities on synthetic and real-world benchmark instances. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZHANG-NI/AGFN . The vehicle routing problem (VRP) represents a fundamental and intricate combinatorial optimization challenge with extensive real-world implications (Toth & Vigo, 2014), including supply chain management (Lee et al., 2006), last-mile delivery services (Koc et al., 2020), and public transportation (Hassold & Ceder, 2014). Given its widespread occurrence across numerous domains, the VRPs have been the subject of extensive research for decades within the Operations Research (OR) community. Particularly, practitioners employ both exact and heuristic methods to tackle complex optimization problems including VRPs. Exact methods, such as branch-and-bound (Lawler & Wood, 1966), branch-and-cut (Tawarmalani & Sahinidis, 2005), and column generation (Barnhart et al., 1998), guarantee optimal solutions but often face computational limitations for large-scale instances.
CoInD: Enabling Logical Compositions in Diffusion Models
Gaudi, Sachit, Sreekumar, Gautam, Boddeti, Vishnu
How can we learn generative models to sample data with arbitrary logical compositions of statistically independent attributes? The prevailing solution is to sample from distributions expressed as a composition of attributes' conditional marginal distributions under the assumption that they are statistically independent. This paper shows that standard conditional diffusion models violate this assumption, even when all attribute compositions are observed during training. And, this violation is significantly more severe when only a subset of the compositions is observed. We propose CoInD to address this problem. It explicitly enforces statistical independence between the conditional marginal distributions by minimizing Fisher's divergence between the joint and marginal distributions. The theoretical advantages of CoInD are reflected in both qualitative and quantitative experiments, demonstrating a significantly more faithful and controlled generation of samples for arbitrary logical compositions of attributes. The benefit is more pronounced for scenarios that current solutions relying on the assumption of conditionally independent marginals struggle with, namely, logical compositions involving the NOT operation and when only a subset of compositions are observed during training.
Measuring the Validity of Clustering Validation Datasets
Jeon, Hyeon, Aupetit, Michaรซl, Shin, DongHwa, Cho, Aeri, Park, Seokhyeon, Seo, Jinwook
Clustering techniques are often validated using benchmark datasets where class labels are used as ground-truth clusters. However, depending on the datasets, class labels may not align with the actual data clusters, and such misalignment hampers accurate validation. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate and compare datasets regarding their cluster-label matching (CLM), i.e., how well their class labels match actual clusters. Internal validation measures (IVMs), like Silhouette, can compare CLM over different labeling of the same dataset, but are not designed to do so across different datasets. We thus introduce Adjusted IVMs as fast and reliable methods to evaluate and compare CLM across datasets. We establish four axioms that require validation measures to be independent of data properties not related to cluster structure (e.g., dimensionality, dataset size). Then, we develop standardized protocols to convert any IVM to satisfy these axioms, and use these protocols to adjust six widely used IVMs. Quantitative experiments (1) verify the necessity and effectiveness of our protocols and (2) show that adjusted IVMs outperform the competitors, including standard IVMs, in accurately evaluating CLM both within and across datasets. We also show that the datasets can be filtered or improved using our method to form more reliable benchmarks for clustering validation.
Rashomon Sets for Prototypical-Part Networks: Editing Interpretable Models in Real-Time
Donnelly, Jon, Guo, Zhicheng, Barnett, Alina Jade, McTavish, Hayden, Chen, Chaofan, Rudin, Cynthia
Interpretability is critical for machine learning models in high-stakes settings because it allows users to verify the model's reasoning. In computer vision, prototypical part models (ProtoPNets) have become the dominant model type to meet this need. Users can easily identify flaws in ProtoPNets, but fixing problems in a ProtoPNet requires slow, difficult retraining that is not guaranteed to resolve the issue. This problem is called the "interaction bottleneck." We solve the interaction bottleneck for ProtoPNets by simultaneously finding many equally good ProtoPNets (i.e., a draw from a "Rashomon set"). We show that our framework - called Proto-RSet - quickly produces many accurate, diverse ProtoPNets, allowing users to correct problems in real time while maintaining performance guarantees with respect to the training set. We demonstrate the utility of this method in two settings: 1) removing synthetic bias introduced to a bird identification model and 2) debugging a skin cancer identification model. This tool empowers non-machine-learning experts, such as clinicians or domain experts, to quickly refine and correct machine learning models without repeated retraining by machine learning experts.
Efficient or Powerful? Trade-offs Between Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Mental Illness Detection on Social Media
Ding, Zhanyi, Wang, Zhongyan, Zhang, Yeyubei, Cao, Yuchen, Liu, Yunchong, Shen, Xiaorui, Tian, Yexin, Dai, Jianglai
Social media platforms provide valuable insights into mental health trends by capturing user-generated discussions on conditions such as depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models have been increasingly applied to classify mental health conditions from textual data, but selecting the most effective model involves trade-offs in accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency. This study evaluates multiple ML models, including logistic regression, random forest, and LightGBM, alongside deep learning architectures such as ALBERT and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), for both binary and multi-class classification of mental health conditions. Our findings indicate that ML and DL models achieve comparable classification performance on medium-sized datasets, with ML models offering greater interpretability through variable importance scores, while DL models are more robust to complex linguistic patterns. Additionally, ML models require explicit feature engineering, whereas DL models learn hierarchical representations directly from text. Logistic regression provides the advantage of capturing both positive and negative associations between features and mental health conditions, whereas tree-based models prioritize decision-making power through split-based feature selection. This study offers empirical insights into the advantages and limitations of different modeling approaches and provides recommendations for selecting appropriate methods based on dataset size, interpretability needs, and computational constraints.