We consider price competition among multiple sellers over a selling horizon of $T$ periods. In each period, sellers simultaneously offer their prices and subsequently observe their respective demand that is unobservable to competitors. The demand function for each seller depends on all sellers' prices through a private, unknown, and nonlinear relationship. To address this challenge, we propose a semi-parametric least-squares estimation of the nonlinear mean function, which does not require sellers to communicate demand information. We show that when all sellers employ our policy, their prices converge at a rate of $O(T^{-1/7})$ to the Nash equilibrium prices that sellers would reach if they were fully informed. Each seller incurs a regret of $O(T^{5/7})$ relative to a dynamic benchmark policy. A theoretical contribution of our work is proving the existence of equilibrium under shape-constrained demand functions via the concept of $s$-concavity and establishing regret bounds of our proposed policy. Technically, we also establish new concentration results for the least squares estimator under shape constraints. Our findings offer significant insights into dynamic competition-aware pricing and contribute to the broader study of non-parametric learning in strategic decision-making.

We propose TVineSynth, a vine copula based synthetic tabular data generator, which is designed to balance privacy and utility, using the vine tree structure and its truncation to do the trade-off. Contrary to synthetic data generators that achieve DP by globally adding noise, TVineSynth performs a controlled approximation of the estimated data generating distribution, so that it does not suffer from poor utility of the resulting synthetic data for downstream prediction tasks. TVineSynth introduces a targeted bias into the vine copula model that, combined with the specific tree structure of the vine, causes the model to zero out privacy-leaking dependencies while relying on those that are beneficial for utility. Privacy is here measured with membership (MIA) and attribute inference attacks (AIA). Further, we theoretically justify how the construction of TVineSynth ensures AIA privacy under a natural privacy measure for continuous sensitive attributes. When compared to competitor models, with and without DP, on simulated and on real-world data, TVineSynth achieves a superior privacy-utility balance.

Iterative learning procedures are ubiquitous in machine learning and modern statistics. Regularision is typically required to prevent inflating the expected loss of a procedure in later iterations via the propagation of noise inherent in the data. Significant emphasis has been placed on achieving this regularisation implicitly by stopping procedures early. The EarlyStopping-package provides a toolbox of (in-sample) sequential early stopping rules for several well-known iterative estimation procedures, such as truncated SVD, Landweber (gradient descent), conjugate gradient descent, L2-boosting and regression trees. One of the central features of the package is that the algorithms allow the specification of the true data-generating process and keep track of relevant theoretical quantities. In this paper, we detail the principles governing the implementation of the EarlyStopping-package and provide a survey of recent foundational advances in the theoretical literature. We demonstrate how to use the EarlyStopping-package to explore core features of implicit regularisation and replicate results from the literature.

This paper presents a comprehensive study leveraging Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression and Principal Component Regression (PCR) to analyze carbon dioxide emissions in a global dataset of 62 countries and their dependence on idiosyncratic, country-specific parameters. The objective is to understand the factors contributing to carbon dioxide emissions and identify the most predictive elements. The analysis provides country-specific emission estimates, highlighting diverse national trajectories and pinpointing areas for targeted interventions in climate change mitigation, sustainable development, and the growing carbon credit markets and green finance sector. The study aims to support policymaking with accurate representations of carbon dioxide emissions, offering nuanced information for formulating effective strategies to address climate change while informing initiatives related to carbon trading and environmentally sustainable investments.

Hierarchical clustering is an effective and interpretable technique for analyzing structure in data, offering a nuanced understanding by revealing insights at multiple scales and resolutions. It is particularly helpful in settings where the exact number of clusters is unknown, and provides a robust framework for exploring complex datasets. Additionally, hierarchical clustering can uncover inner structures within clusters, capturing subtle relationships and nested patterns that may be obscured by traditional flat clustering methods. However, existing hierarchical clustering methods struggle with high-dimensional data, especially when there are no clear density gaps between modes. Our method addresses this limitation by leveraging a two-stage approach, first employing a Gaussian or Student's t mixture model to overcluster the data, and then hierarchically merging clusters based on the induced density landscape. This approach yields state-of-the-art clustering performance while also providing a meaningful hierarchy, making it a valuable tool for exploratory data analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/ecker-lab/tneb clustering.

To address the dual challenges of the curse of dimensionality and the difficulty in separating intra-cluster and inter-cluster structures in high-dimensional manifold embedding, we proposes an Adaptive Multi-Scale Manifold Embedding (AMSME) algorithm. By introducing ordinal distance to replace traditional Euclidean distances, we theoretically demonstrate that ordinal distance overcomes the constraints of the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces, effectively distinguishing heterogeneous samples. We design an adaptive neighborhood adjustment method to construct similarity graphs that simultaneously balance intra-cluster compactness and inter-cluster separability. Furthermore, we develop a two-stage embedding framework: the first stage achieves preliminary cluster separation while preserving connectivity between structurally similar clusters via the similarity graph, and the second stage enhances inter-cluster separation through a label-driven distance reweighting. Experimental results demonstrate that AMSME significantly preserves intra-cluster topological structures and improves inter-cluster separation on real-world datasets. Additionally, leveraging its multi-resolution analysis capability, AMSME discovers novel neuronal subtypes in the mouse lumbar dorsal root ganglion scRNA-seq dataset, with marker gene analysis revealing their distinct biological roles.

Model selection has been raised as an essential problem in the area of time series anomaly detection (TSAD), because there is no single best TSAD model for the highly heterogeneous time series in real-world applications. However, despite the success of existing model selection solutions that train a classification model (especially neural network, NN) using historical data as a selector to predict the correct TSAD model for each series, the NN-based selector learning methods used by existing solutions do not make full use of the knowledge in the historical data and require iterating over all training samples, which limits the accuracy and training speed of the selector. To address these limitations, we propose KDSelector, a novel knowledge-enhanced and data-efficient framework for learning the NN-based TSAD model selector, of which three key components are specifically designed to integrate available knowledge into the selector and dynamically prune less important and redundant samples during the learning. We develop a TSAD model selection system with KDSelector as the internal, to demonstrate how users improve the accuracy and training speed of their selectors by using KDSelector as a plug-and-play module. Our demonstration video is hosted at https://youtu.be/2uqupDWvTF0.

Clustering high-dimensional data is a critical challenge in machine learning due to the curse of dimensionality and the presence of noise. Traditional clustering algorithms often fail to capture the intrinsic structures in such data. This paper explores a combination of clustering methods, which we called Line Space Clustering (LSC), a representation that transforms data points into lines in a newly defined feature space, enabling clustering based on the similarity of feature value patterns, essentially treating features as sequences. LSC employs a combined distance metric that uses Euclidean and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distances, weighted by a parameter {\alpha}, allowing flexibility in emphasizing shape or magnitude similarities. We delve deeply into the mechanics of DTW and the Savitzky Golay filter, explaining their roles in the algorithm. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of LSC on synthetic and real-world datasets, showing that randomly experimenting with time-series optimized methods sometimes might surprisingly work on a complex dataset, particularly in noisy environments. Source code and experiments are available at: https://github.com/JoanikijChulev/LSC.

The increasing capability of large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic content has heightened concerns about their misuse, driving the development of Machine-Generated Text (MGT) detection models. However, these detectors face significant challenges due to the lack of systematically generated, high-quality datasets for training. To address this issue, we propose five novel data augmentation frameworks for synthetic user dialogue generation through a structured prompting approach, reducing the costs associated with traditional data collection methods. Our proposed method yields 14 new dialogue datasets, which we benchmark against seven MGT detection models. The results demonstrate improved generalization performance when utilizing a mixed dataset produced by our proposed augmentation framework. Furthermore, considering that real-world agents lack knowledge of future opponent utterances, we simulate online dialogue detection and examine the relationship between chat history length and detection accuracy. We also benchmark online detection performance with limited chat history on our frameworks. Our open-source datasets can be downloaded from https://github.com/AngieYYF/SPADE-customer-service-dialogue.

We present a novel preference learning framework to capture participant preferences efficiently within limited interaction rounds. It involves three main contributions. First, we develop a variational Bayesian approach to infer the participant's preference model by estimating posterior distributions and managing uncertainty from limited information. Second, we propose an adaptive questioning policy that maximizes cumulative uncertainty reduction, formulating questioning as a finite Markov decision process and using Monte Carlo Tree Search to prioritize promising question trajectories. By considering long-term effects and leveraging the efficiency of the Bayesian approach, the policy avoids shortsightedness. Third, we apply the framework to Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding, with pairwise comparison as the preference information and an additive value function as the preference model. We integrate the reparameterization trick to address high-variance issues, enhancing robustness and efficiency. Computational studies on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate the framework's practical usability, outperforming baselines in capturing preferences and achieving superior uncertainty reduction within limited interactions.