Statistical Learning
Guidelines For The Choice Of The Baseline in XAI Attribution Methods
Morasso, Cristian, Dolci, Giorgio, Galazzo, Ilaria Boscolo, Plis, Sergey M., Menegaz, Gloria
Given the broad adoption of artificial intelligence, it is essential to provide evidence that AI models are reliable, trustable, and fair. To this end, the emerging field of eXplainable AI develops techniques to probe such requirements, counterbalancing the hype pushing the pervasiveness of this technology. Among the many facets of this issue, this paper focuses on baseline attribution methods, aiming at deriving a feature attribution map at the network input relying on a "neutral" stimulus usually called "baseline". The choice of the baseline is crucial as it determines the explanation of the network behavior. In this framework, this paper has the twofold goal of shedding light on the implications of the choice of the baseline and providing a simple yet effective method for identifying the best baseline for the task. To achieve this, we propose a decision boundary sampling method, since the baseline, by definition, lies on the decision boundary, which naturally becomes the search domain. Experiments are performed on synthetic examples and validated relying on state-of-the-art methods. Despite being limited to the experimental scope, this contribution is relevant as it offers clear guidelines and a simple proxy for baseline selection, reducing ambiguity and enhancing deep models' reliability and trust.
Interpretable Deep Regression Models with Interval-Censored Failure Time Data
Yuan, Changhui, Zhao, Shishun, Li, Shuwei, Song, Xinyuan, Chen, Zhao
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become powerful tools for modeling complex data structures through sequentially integrating simple functions in each hidden layer. In survival analysis, recent advances of DNNs primarily focus on enhancing model capabilities, especially in exploring nonlinear covariate effects under right censoring. However, deep learning methods for interval-censored data, where the unobservable failure time is only known to lie in an interval, remain underexplored and limited to specific data type or model. This work proposes a general regression framework for interval-censored data with a broad class of partially linear transformation models, where key covariate effects are modeled parametrically while nonlinear effects of nuisance multi-modal covariates are approximated via DNNs, balancing interpretability and flexibility. We employ sieve maximum likelihood estimation by leveraging monotone splines to approximate the cumulative baseline hazard function. To ensure reliable and tractable estimation, we develop an EM algorithm incorporating stochastic gradient descent. We establish the asymptotic properties of parameter estimators and show that the DNN estimator achieves minimax-optimal convergence. Extensive simulations demonstrate superior estimation and prediction accuracy over state-of-the-art methods. Applying our method to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset yields novel insights and improved predictive performance compared to traditional approaches.
Addressing Challenges in Time Series Forecasting: A Comprehensive Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques
Mortezanejad, Seyedeh Azadeh Fallah, Wang, Ruochen
The explosion of Time Series (TS) data, driven by advancements in technology, necessitates sophisticated analytical methods. Modern management systems increasingly rely on analyzing this data, highlighting the importance of effcient processing techniques. State-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) approaches for TS analysis and forecasting are becoming prevalent. This paper briefly describes and compiles suitable algorithms for TS regression task. We compare these algorithms against each other and the classic ARIMA method using diverse datasets: complete data, data with outliers, and data with missing values. The focus is on forecasting accuracy, particularly for long-term predictions. This research aids in selecting the most appropriate algorithm based on forecasting needs and data characteristics.
GENIUS: A Generative Framework for Universal Multimodal Search
Kim, Sungyeon, Zhu, Xinliang, Lin, Xiaofan, Bastan, Muhammet, Gray, Douglas, Kwak, Suha
Generative retrieval is an emerging approach in information retrieval that generates identifiers (IDs) of target data based on a query, providing an efficient alternative to traditional embedding-based retrieval methods. However, existing models are task-specific and fall short of embedding-based retrieval in performance. This paper proposes GENIUS, a universal generative retrieval framework supporting diverse tasks across multiple modalities and domains. At its core, GENIUS introduces modality-decoupled semantic quantization, transforming multimodal data into discrete IDs encoding both modality and semantics. Moreover, to enhance generalization, we propose a query augmentation that interpolates between a query and its target, allowing GENIUS to adapt to varied query forms. Evaluated on the M-BEIR benchmark, it surpasses prior generative methods by a clear margin. Unlike embedding-based retrieval, GENIUS consistently maintains high retrieval speed across database size, with competitive performance across multiple benchmarks. With additional re-ranking, GENIUS often achieves results close to those of embedding-based methods while preserving efficiency.
SMT-EX: An Explainable Surrogate Modeling Toolbox for Mixed-Variables Design Exploration
Robani, Mohammad Daffa, Saves, Paul, Palar, Pramudita Satria, Zuhal, Lavi Rizki, Morlier, oseph
Surrogate models are of high interest for many engineering applications, serving as cheap-to-evaluate time-efficient approximations of black-box functions to help engineers and practitioners make decisions and understand complex systems. As such, the need for explainability methods is rising and many studies have been performed to facilitate knowledge discovery from surrogate models. To respond to these enquiries, this paper introduces SMT-EX, an enhancement of the open-source Python Surrogate Modeling Toolbox (SMT) that integrates explainability techniques into a state-of-the-art surrogate modelling framework. More precisely, SMT-EX includes three key explainability methods: Shapley Additive Explanations, Partial Dependence Plot, and Individual Conditional Expectations. A peculiar explainability dependency of SMT has been developed for such purpose that can be easily activated once the surrogate model is built, offering a user-friendly and efficient tool for swift insight extraction. The effectiveness of SMT-EX is showcased through two test cases. The first case is a 10-variable wing weight problem with purely continuous variables and the second one is a 3-variable mixed-categorical cantilever beam bending problem. Relying on SMT-EX analyses for these problems, we demonstrate its versatility in addressing a diverse range of problem characteristics. SMT-Explainability is freely available on Github: https://github.com/SMTorg/smt-explainability .
Untangling the Influence of Typology, Data and Model Architecture on Ranking Transfer Languages for Cross-Lingual POS Tagging
Rice, Enora, Marashian, Ali, Haynie, Hannah, von der Wense, Katharina, Palmer, Alexis
Cross-lingual transfer learning is an invaluable tool for overcoming data scarcity, yet selecting a suitable transfer language remains a challenge. The precise roles of linguistic typology, training data, and model architecture in transfer language choice are not fully understood. We take a holistic approach, examining how both dataset-specific and fine-grained typological features influence transfer language selection for part-of-speech tagging, considering two different sources for morphosyntactic features. While previous work examines these dynamics in the context of bilingual biLSTMS, we extend our analysis to a more modern transfer learning pipeline: zero-shot prediction with pretrained multilingual models. We train a series of transfer language ranking systems and examine how different feature inputs influence ranker performance across architectures. Word overlap, type-token ratio, and genealogical distance emerge as top features across all architectures. Our findings reveal that a combination of typological and dataset-dependent features leads to the best rankings, and that good performance can be obtained with either feature group on its own.
Identification of Average Treatment Effects in Nonparametric Panel Models
This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the introduction of a consistent estimator. Underlying the proof is a result that there is a consistent estimator for the expected outcome in the absence of the treatment for each unit and time period; this result can be applied more broadly, for example in problems of decompositions of group-level differences in outcomes, such as the much-studied gender wage gap.
Structured and sparse partial least squares coherence for multivariate cortico-muscular analysis
Sun, Jingyao, Zhang, Qilu, Ma, Di, Jia, Tianyu, Jia, Shijie, Zhai, Xiaoxue, Xie, Ruimou, Lin, Ping-Ju, Li, Zhibin, Pan, Yu, Ji, Linhong, Li, Chong
Multivariate cortico-muscular analysis has recently emerged as a promising approach for evaluating the corticospinal neural pathway. However, current multivariate approaches encounter challenges such as high dimensionality and limited sample sizes, thus restricting their further applications. In this paper, we propose a structured and sparse partial least squares coherence algorithm (ssPLSC) to extract shared latent space representations related to cortico-muscular interactions. Our approach leverages an embedded optimization framework by integrating a partial least squares (PLS)-based objective function, a sparsity constraint and a connectivity-based structured constraint, addressing the generalizability, interpretability and spatial structure. To solve the optimization problem, we develop an efficient alternating iterative algorithm within a unified framework and prove its convergence experimentally. Extensive experimental results from one synthetic and several real-world datasets have demonstrated that ssPLSC can achieve competitive or better performance over some representative multivariate cortico-muscular fusion methods, particularly in scenarios characterized by limited sample sizes and high noise levels. This study provides a novel multivariate fusion method for cortico-muscular analysis, offering a transformative tool for the evaluation of corticospinal pathway integrity in neurological disorders.
Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression
Braun, Sacha, Aolaritei, Liviu, Jordan, Michael I., Bach, Francis
Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid geometric assumptions or rely on flexible but computationally expensive approaches that do not explicitly optimize prediction set volume. We propose an optimization-driven framework based on a novel loss function that directly learns minimum-volume covering sets while ensuring valid coverage. This formulation naturally induces a new nonconformity score for conformal prediction, which adapts to the residual distribution and covariates. Our approach optimizes over prediction sets defined by arbitrary norm balls, including single and multi-norm formulations. Additionally, by jointly optimizing both the predictive model and predictive uncertainty, we obtain prediction sets that are tight, informative, and computationally efficient, as demonstrated in our experiments on real-world datasets.
How to optimize K-means?
Center-based clustering algorithms (e.g., K-means) are popular for clustering tasks, but they usually struggle to achieve high accuracy on complex datasets. We believe the main reason is that traditional center-based clustering algorithms identify only one clustering center in each cluster. Once the distribution of the dataset is complex, a single clustering center cannot strongly represent distant objects within the cluster. How to optimize the existing center-based clustering algorithms will be valuable research. In this paper, we propose a general optimization method called ECAC, and it can optimize different center-based clustering algorithms. ECAC is independent of the clustering principle and is embedded as a component between the center process and the category assignment process of center-based clustering algorithms. Specifically, ECAC identifies several extended-centers for each clustering center. The extended-centers will act as relays to expand the representative capability of the clustering center in the complex cluster, thus improving the accuracy of center-based clustering algorithms. We conducted numerous experiments to verify the robustness and effectiveness of ECAC. ECAC is robust to diverse datasets and diverse clustering centers. After ECAC optimization, the accuracy (NMI as well as RI) of center-based clustering algorithms improves by an average of 33.4% and 64.1%, respectively, and even K-means accurately identifies complex-shaped clusters.