Given a graph $G$ and a seed node $v_s$, the objective of local graph clustering (LGC) is to identify a subgraph $C_s \in G$ (a.k.a. local cluster) surrounding $v_s$ in time roughly linear with the size of $C_s$. This approach yields personalized clusters without needing to access the entire graph, which makes it highly suitable for numerous applications involving large graphs. However, most existing solutions merely rely on the topological connectivity between nodes in $G$, rendering them vulnerable to missing or noisy links that are commonly present in real-world graphs. To address this issue, this paper resorts to leveraging the complementary nature of graph topology and node attributes to enhance local clustering quality. To effectively exploit the attribute information, we first formulate the LGC as an estimation of the bidirectional diffusion distribution (BDD), which is specialized for capturing the multi-hop affinity between nodes in the presence of attributes. Furthermore, we propose LACA, an efficient and effective approach for LGC that achieves superb empirical performance on multiple real datasets while maintaining strong locality. The core components of LACA include (i) a fast and theoretically-grounded preprocessing technique for node attributes, (ii) an adaptive algorithm for diffusing any vectors over $G$ with rigorous theoretical guarantees and expedited convergence, and (iii) an effective three-step scheme for BDD approximation. Extensive experiments, comparing 17 competitors on 8 real datasets, show that LACA outperforms all competitors in terms of result quality measured against ground truth local clusters, while also being up to orders of magnitude faster. The code is available at https://github.com/HaoranZ99/alac.

Uncertainty of scientific findings are typically reported through statistical metrics such as $p$-values, confidence intervals, etc. The magnitude of this objective uncertainty is reflected in the language used by the authors to report their findings primarily through expressions carrying uncertainty-inducing terms or phrases. This language uncertainty is a subjective concept and is highly dependent on the writing style of the authors. There is evidence that such subjective uncertainty influences the impact of science on public audience. In this work, we turned our focus to scientists themselves, and measured/analyzed the subjective uncertainty and its impact within scientific communities across different disciplines. We showed that the level of this type of uncertainty varies significantly across different fields, years of publication and geographical locations. We also studied the correlation between subjective uncertainty and several bibliographical metrics, such as number/gender of authors, centrality of the field's community, citation count, etc. The underlying patterns identified in this work are useful in identification and documentation of linguistic norms in scientific communication in different communities/societies.

We consider the problem of estimating the expected causal effect $E[Y|do(X)]$ for a target variable $Y$ when treatment $X$ is set by intervention, focusing on continuous random variables. In settings without selection bias or confounding, $E[Y|do(X)] = E[Y|X]$, which can be estimated using standard regression methods. However, regression fails when systematic missingness induced by selection bias, or confounding distorts the data. Boeken et al. [2023] show that when training data is subject to selection, proxy variables unaffected by this process can, under certain constraints, be used to correct for selection bias to estimate $E[Y|X]$, and hence $E[Y|do(X)]$, reliably. When data is additionally affected by confounding, however, this equality is no longer valid. Building on these results, we consider a more general setting and propose a framework that incorporates both selection bias and confounding. Specifically, we derive theoretical conditions ensuring identifiability and recoverability of causal effects under access to external data and proxy variables. We further introduce a two-step regression estimator (TSR), capable of exploiting proxy variables to adjust for selection bias while accounting for confounding. We show that TSR coincides with prior work if confounding is absent, but achieves a lower variance. Extensive simulation studies validate TSR's correctness for scenarios which may include both selection bias and confounding with proxy variables.

Bin-picking of metal objects using low-cost RGB-D cameras often suffers from sparse depth information and reflective surface textures, leading to errors and the need for manual labeling. To reduce human intervention, we propose a two-stage framework consisting of a metric learning stage and a self-training stage. Specifically, to automatically process data captured by a low-cost camera (LC), we introduce a Multi-object Pose Reasoning (MoPR) algorithm that optimizes pose hypotheses under depth, collision, and boundary constraints. To further refine pose candidates, we adopt a Symmetry-aware Lie-group based Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (SaL-BGMM), integrated with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, for symmetry-aware filtering. Additionally, we propose a Weighted Ranking Information Noise Contrastive Estimation (WR-InfoNCE) loss to enable the LC to learn a perceptual metric from reconstructed data, supporting self-training on untrained or even unseen objects. Experimental results show that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art methods on both the ROBI dataset and our newly introduced Self-ROBI dataset.

--Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used operationally, which could negatively affect forecast accuracy, and result in suboptimal operational decisions. In this paper, we use adaptive robust optimization and adversarial machine learning to develop forecasting models that seamlessly handle missing data operationally. We propose linear-and neural network-based forecasting models with parameters that adapt to available features, combining linear adaptation with a novel algorithm for learning data-driven uncertainty set partitions. The proposed adaptive models do not rely on identifying historical missing data patterns and are suitable for real-time operations under stringent time constraints. Extensive numerical experiments on short-term wind power forecasting considering horizons from 15 minutes to 4 hours ahead illustrate that our proposed adaptive models are on par with imputation when data are missing for very short periods (e.g., when only the latest measurement is missing) whereas they significantly outperform imputation when data are missing for longer periods. We further provide insights by showcasing how linear adaptation and data-driven partitions (even with a few subsets) approach the performance of the optimal, yet impractical, method of retraining for every possible realization of missing data. Index T erms--Short-term forecasting, wind power forecasting, missing data, adaptive robust optimization, data-driven uncertainty set partitioning, adversarial learning. V ariable renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, dominate low-carbon power systems. To deal with their inherent uncertainty and variability, system operators manage operational risk based on a forward-looking grid status estimation [1]. For instance, they run short-term scheduling applications to evaluate the reliability of market-based dispatch, which are based on short-term energy forecasts with a horizon ranging from a few minutes to several hours ahead [2]. A. Background and Motivation A critical assumption underpinning the forecasting models is that input data, a.k.a.

Message-Passing Monte Carlo (MPMC) was recently introduced as a novel low-discrepancy sampling approach leveraging tools from geometric deep learning. While originally designed for generating uniform point sets, we extend this framework to sample from general multivariate probability distributions with known probability density function. Our proposed method, Stein-Message-Passing Monte Carlo (Stein-MPMC), minimizes a kernelized Stein discrepancy, ensuring improved sample quality. Finally, we show that Stein-MPMC outperforms competing methods, such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent and (greedy) Stein Points, by achieving a lower Stein discrepancy.

Online platforms take proactive measures to detect and address undesirable behavior, aiming to focus these resource-intensive efforts where such behavior is most prevalent. This article considers the problem of efficient sampling for toxicity detection in competitive online video games. To make optimal monitoring decisions, video game service operators need estimates of the likelihood of toxic behavior. If no model is available for these predictions, one must be estimated in real time. To close this gap, we propose a contextual bandit algorithm that makes monitoring decisions based on a small set of variables that, according to domain expertise, are associated with toxic behavior. This algorithm balances exploration and exploitation to optimize long-term outcomes and is deliberately designed for easy deployment in production. Using data from the popular first-person action game Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III, we show that our algorithm consistently outperforms baseline algorithms that rely solely on players' past behavior. This finding has substantive implications for the nature of toxicity. It also illustrates how domain expertise can be harnessed to help video game service operators identify and mitigate toxicity, ultimately fostering a safer and more enjoyable gaming experience.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction facilitates improved navigational safety, routing, and environmental protection. However, existing prediction methods are challenged by the irregular sampling time intervals of the vessel tracking data from the global AIS system and the complexity of vessel movement. These aspects render model learning and generalization difficult. To address these challenges and improve vessel trajectory prediction, we propose the multi-modal knowledge-enhanced framework (MAKER) for vessel trajectory prediction. To contend better with the irregular sampling time intervals, MAKER features a Large language model-guided Knowledge Transfer (LKT) module that leverages pre-trained language models to transfer trajectory-specific contextual knowledge effectively. To enhance the ability to learn complex trajectory patterns, MAKER incorporates a Knowledge-based Self-paced Learning (KSL) module. This module employs kinematic knowledge to progressively integrate complex patterns during training, allowing for adaptive learning and enhanced generalization. Experimental results on two vessel trajectory datasets show that MAKER can improve the prediction accuracy of state-of-the-art methods by 12.08%-17.86%.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

Feature Transformation is crucial for classic machine learning that aims to generate feature combinations to enhance the performance of downstream tasks from a data-centric perspective. Current methodologies, such as manual expert-driven processes, iterative-feedback techniques, and exploration-generative tactics, have shown promise in automating such data engineering workflow by minimizing human involvement. However, three challenges remain in those frameworks: (1) It predominantly depends on downstream task performance metrics, as assessment is time-consuming, especially for large datasets. (2) The diversity of feature combinations will hardly be guaranteed after random exploration ends. (3) Rare significant transformations lead to sparse valuable feedback that hinders the learning processes or leads to less effective results. In response to these challenges, we introduce FastFT, an innovative framework that leverages a trio of advanced strategies.We first decouple the feature transformation evaluation from the outcomes of the generated datasets via the performance predictor. To address the issue of reward sparsity, we developed a method to evaluate the novelty of generated transformation sequences. Incorporating this novelty into the reward function accelerates the model's exploration of effective transformations, thereby improving the search productivity. Additionally, we combine novelty and performance to create a prioritized memory buffer, ensuring that essential experiences are effectively revisited during exploration. Our extensive experimental evaluations validate the performance, efficiency, and traceability of our proposed framework, showcasing its superiority in handling complex feature transformation tasks.