Statistical Learning
Boundary-aware Prototype-driven Adversarial Alignment for Cross-Corpus EEG Emotion Recognition
Li, Guangli, Wu, Canbiao, Tian, Na, Zhang, Li, Liang, Zhen
Electroencephalography (EEG)-based emotion recognition suffers from severe performance degradation when models are transferred across heterogeneous datasets due to physiological variability, experimental paradigm differences, and device inconsistencies. Existing domain adversarial methods primarily enforce global marginal alignment and often overlook class-conditional mismatch and decision boundary distortion, limiting cross-corpus generalization. In this work, we propose a unified Prototype-driven Adversarial Alignment (PAA) framework for cross-corpus EEG emotion recognition. The framework is progressively instantiated in three configurations: PAA-L, which performs prototype-guided local class-conditional alignment; PAA-C, which further incorporates contrastive semantic regularization to enhance intra-class compactness and inter-class separability; and PAA-M, the full boundary-aware configuration that integrates dual relation-aware classifiers within a three-stage adversarial optimization scheme to explicitly refine controversial samples near decision boundaries. By combining prototype-guided subdomain alignment, contrastive discriminative enhancement, and boundary-aware aggregation within a coherent adversarial architecture, the proposed framework reformulates emotion recognition as a relation-driven representation learning problem, reducing sensitivity to label noise and improving cross-domain stability. Extensive experiments on SEED, SEED-IV, and SEED-V demonstrate state-of-the-art performance under four cross-corpus evaluation protocols, with average improvements of 6.72\%, 5.59\%, 6.69\%, and 4.83\%, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed framework generalizes effectively to clinical depression identification scenarios, validating its robustness in real-world heterogeneous settings. The source code is available at \textit{https://github.com/WuCB-BCI/PAA}
On the Optimal Number of Grids for Differentially Private Non-Interactive $K$-Means Clustering
Muthukrishnan, Gokularam, Tandon, Anshoo
Differentially private $K$-means clustering enables releasing cluster centers derived from a dataset while protecting the privacy of the individuals. Non-interactive clustering techniques based on privatized histograms are attractive because the released data synopsis can be reused for other downstream tasks without additional privacy loss. The choice of the number of grids for discretizing the data points is crucial, as it directly controls the quantization bias and the amount of noise injected to preserve privacy. The widely adopted strategy selects a grid size that is independent of the number of clusters and also relies on empirical tuning. In this work, we revisit this choice and propose a refined grid-size selection rule derived by minimizing an upper bound on the expected deviation in the K-means objective function, leading to a more principled discretization strategy for non-interactive private clustering. Compared to prior work, our grid resolution differs both in its dependence on the number of clusters and in the scaling with dataset size and privacy budget. Extensive numerical results elucidate that the proposed strategy results in accurate clustering compared to the state-of-the-art techniques, even under tight privacy budgets.
Distributed Gradient Clustering: Convergence and the Effect of Initialization
Armacki, Aleksandar, Sharma, Himkant, Bajović, Dragana, Jakovetić, Dušan, Chakraborty, Mrityunjoy, Kar, Soummya
We study the effects of center initialization on the performance of a family of distributed gradient-based clustering algorithms introduced in [1], that work over connected networks of users. In the considered scenario, each user contains a local dataset and communicates only with its immediate neighbours, with the aim of finding a global clustering of the joint data. We perform extensive numerical experiments, evaluating the effects of center initialization on the performance of our family of methods, demonstrating that our methods are more resilient to the effects of initialization, compared to centralized gradient clustering [2]. Next, inspired by the $K$-means++ initialization [3], we propose a novel distributed center initialization scheme, which is shown to improve the performance of our methods, compared to the baseline random initialization.
A Mean Field Games Perspective on Evolutionary Clustering
Basti, Alessio, Camilli, Fabio, Festa, Adriano
We propose a control-theoretic framework for evolutionary clustering based on Mean Field Games (MFG). Moving beyond static or heuristic approaches, we formulate the problem as a population dynamics game governed by a coupled Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and Fokker-Planck system. Driven by a variational cost functional rather than predefined statistical shapes, this continuous-time formulation provides a flexible basis for non-parametric cluster evolution. To validate the framework, we analyze the setting of time-dependent Gaussian mixtures, showing that the MFG dynamics recover the trajectories of the classical Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm while ensuring mass conservation. Furthermore, we introduce time-averaged log-likelihood functionals to regularize temporal fluctuations. Numerical experiments illustrate the stability of our approach and suggest a path toward more general non-parametric clustering applications where traditional EM methods may face limitations.
A Perturbation Approach to Unconstrained Linear Bandits
Jacobsen, Andrew, Baudry, Dorian, Ito, Shinji, Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolò
We revisit the standard perturbation-based approach of Abernethy et al. (2008) in the context of unconstrained Bandit Linear Optimization (uBLO). We show the surprising result that in the unconstrained setting, this approach effectively reduces Bandit Linear Optimization (BLO) to a standard Online Linear Optimization (OLO) problem. Our framework improves on prior work in several ways. First, we derive expected-regret guarantees when our perturbation scheme is combined with comparator-adaptive OLO algorithms, leading to new insights about the impact of different adversarial models on the resulting comparator-adaptive rates. We also extend our analysis to dynamic regret, obtaining the optimal $\sqrt{P_T}$ path-length dependencies without prior knowledge of $P_T$. We then develop the first high-probability guarantees for both static and dynamic regret in uBLO. Finally, we discuss lower bounds on the static regret, and prove the folklore $Ω(\sqrt{dT})$ rate for adversarial linear bandits on the unit Euclidean ball, which is of independent interest.
Vertical Consensus Inference for High-Dimensional Random Partition
Nguyen, Khai, Ni, Yang, Mueller, Peter
We review recently proposed Bayesian approaches for clustering high-dimensional data. After identifying the main limitations of available approaches, we introduce an alternative framework based on vertical consensus inference (VCI) to mitigate the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional Bayesian clustering. VCI builds on the idea of consensus Monte Carlo by dividing the data into multiple shards (smaller subsets of variables), performing posterior inference on each shard, and then combining the shard-level posteriors to obtain a consensus posterior. The key distinction is that VCI splits the data vertically, producing vertical shards that retain the same number of observations but have lower dimensionality. We use an entropic regularized Wasserstein barycenter to define a consensus posterior. The shard-specific barycenter weights are constructed to favor shards that provide meaningful partitions, distinct from a trivial single cluster or all singleton clusters, favoring balanced cluster sizes and precise shard-specific posterior random partitions. We show that VCI can be interpreted as a variational approximation to the posterior under a hierarchical model with a generalized Bayes prior. For relatively low-dimensional problems, experiments suggest that VCI closely approximates inference based on clustering the entire multivariate data. For high-dimensional data and in the presence of many noninformative dimensions, VCI introduces a new framework for model-based and principled inference on random partitions. Although our focus here is on random partitions, VCI can be applied to any dimension-independent parameters and serves as a bridge to emerging areas in statistics such as consensus Monte Carlo, optimal transport, variational inference, and generalized Bayes.
Machine Learning-Assisted High-Dimensional Matrix Estimation
Tian, Wan, Yang, Hui, Lian, Zhouhui, Zhang, Lingyue, Peng, Yijie
Efficient estimation of high-dimensional matrices--including covariance and precision matrices--is a cornerstone of modern multivariate statistics. Most existing studies have focused primarily on the theoretical properties of the estimators (e.g., consistency and sparsity), while largely overlooking the computational challenges inherent in high-dimensional settings. Theoretically, we first prove the convergence of LADMM, and then establish the convergence, convergence rate, and monotonicity of its reparameterized counterpart; importantly, we show that the reparameterized LADMM enjoys a faster convergence rate. Notably, the proposed reparameterization theory and methodology are applicable to the estimation of both high-dimensional covariance and precision matrices. Keywords: ADMM; High-dimensional; Learning-based optimization; Matrix estimation. 1. Introduction High-dimensional matrix estimation--covering both covariance and precision matrix estimation--constitutes a cornerstone of modern statistics and data science [1, 2, 3]. Accurate covariance estimation enables the characterization of dependence structures among a large number of variables [4, 5, 6], which is indispensable in diverse domains such as genomics [7, 8], neuroscience [9], finance [10, 11, 12], and climate science [13, 14]. Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made in the statistical theory of high-dimensional matrix estimation, particularly with respect to the accuracy of estimators, including properties such as sparsistency and consistency [5, 15, 16]. However, in empirical studies, the dimensionality is often only on the order of tens to hundreds, and in many cases is comparable to the sample size [21, 22, 23, 24]. This observation highlights a notable gap between the statistical theory of estimators and the practical challenges of their computational implementation.
Profile Graphical Models
Avalos-Pacheco, Alejandra, Lupparelli, Monia, Stingo, Francesco C.
We introduce a novel class of graphical models, termed profile graphical models, that represent, within a single graph, how an external factor influences the dependence structure of a multivariate set of variables. This class is quite general and includes multiple graphs and chain graphs as special cases. Profile graphical models capture the conditional distributions of a multivariate random vector given different levels of a risk factor, and learn how the conditional independence structure among variables may vary across these risk profiles; we formally define this family of models and establish their corresponding Markov properties. We derive key structural and probabilistic properties that underpin a more powerful inferential framework than existing approaches, underscoring that our contribution extends beyond a novel graphical representation.Furthermore, we show that the resulting profile undirected graphical models are independence-compatible with two-block LWF chain graph models.We then develop a Bayesian approach for Gaussian undirected profile graphical models based on continuous spike-and-slab priors to learn shared sparsity structures across different levels of the risk factor. We also design a fast EM algorithm for efficient inference. Inferential properties are explored through simulation studies, including the comparison with competing methods. The practical utility of this class of models is demonstrated through the analysis of protein network data from various subtypes of acute myeloid leukemia. Our results show a more parsimonious network and greater patient heterogeneity than its competitors, highlighting its enhanced ability to capture subject-specific differences.
Energy Score-Guided Neural Gaussian Mixture Model for Predictive Uncertainty Quantification
Yang, Yang, Ji, Chunlin, Li, Haoyang, Deng, Ke
Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for real world machine learning applications, especially in scenarios requiring reliable and interpretable predictions. Many common parametric approaches rely on neural networks to estimate distribution parameters by optimizing the negative log likelihood. However, these methods often encounter challenges like training instability and mode collapse, leading to poor estimates of the mean and variance of the target output distribution. In this work, we propose the Neural Energy Gaussian Mixture Model (NE-GMM), a novel framework that integrates Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with Energy Score (ES) to enhance predictive uncertainty quantification. NE-GMM leverages the flexibility of GMM to capture complex multimodal distributions and leverages the robustness of ES to ensure well calibrated predictions in diverse scenarios. We theoretically prove that the hybrid loss function satisfies the properties of a strictly proper scoring rule, ensuring alignment with the true data distribution, and establish generalization error bounds, demonstrating that the model's empirical performance closely aligns with its expected performance on unseen data. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets demonstrate the superiority of NE-GMM in terms of both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
AutoStan: Autonomous Bayesian Model Improvement via Predictive Feedback
We present AutoStan, a framework in which a command-line interface (CLI) coding agent autonomously builds and iteratively improves Bayesian models written in Stan. The agent operates in a loop, writing a Stan model file, executing MCMC sampling, then deciding whether to keep or revert each change based on two complementary feedback signals: the negative log predictive density (NLPD) on held-out data and the sampler's own diagnostics (divergences, R-hat, effective sample size). We evaluate AutoStan on five datasets with diverse modeling structures. On a synthetic regression dataset with outliers, the agent progresses from naive linear regression to a model with Student-t robustness, nonlinear heteroscedastic structure, and an explicit contamination mixture, matching or outperforming TabPFN, a state-of-the-art black-box method, while remaining fully interpretable. Across four additional experiments, the same mechanism discovers hierarchical partial pooling, varying-slope models with correlated random effects, and a Poisson attack/defense model for soccer. No search algorithm, critic module, or domain-specific instructions are needed. This is, to our knowledge, the first demonstration that a CLI coding agent can autonomously write and iteratively improve Stan code for diverse Bayesian modeling problems.